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Army vs Navy +7 O/U 35
If you want a long drawn out history of this fanstastic game, you are at the wrong place. This is only about the handicap and that is why we will keep this short. The weather for this game will be very windy with gusts up to 40 MPH at MetLife Stadium as you can see from this diagram.
Army is clearly the better team at about even in yards per play while Navy has had a down year at -1.8 but what I will say is that Navy has improved towards the end of the season beating Tulsa outright, keeping it close with East Carolina and giving Cincinnati some fits only losing by 8 points. Now the reason for this low total is because we have 2 teams that rarely pass the ball and both run the triple option. What that does is drain clock to the point where sometimes this game ends in under 2.5 hours. Army’s offense ranks 15th in success rate Navy’s defense ranks 85th. Navy is 115th in offensive success rate to Army’s defense ranking 34th. Even with this massive disparity, money came in on Navy due to the fact that points are at a premium in this game and Navy has had the harder schedule. Even with this low total, I do not want to go over because over the last 10 of these games, the under is a perfect 10-0. Another reason for low scoring is that both of these teams being both option teams understand how to stop each other on defense and with the rain and the wind. I think that there will be less trick pass plays drawn up by the coaches. I think that Army wins this game being the more powerful team. I do not know if they will get that 7 pt margin, but what I do think that could happen is that Navy is very limited in getting points themselves being that they could only score about 3 points vs Airforce earlier in the season and only average 20 points per game in total. Army stops the run this year allowing only 3.7 yards per rush while Navy allows a pretty decent 4.1. I think in this rare instance, the teaser past the key numbers with an unstoppable under could be the best value. Tease Army to -1 with the under to 41.
6 pt. teaser – Army to -1 with the under to 41 – 2 stars
