AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am – Preview & Picks

Congrats to all Matthieu Pavon backers at the Farmers Insurance Open last week. He was able to capture his first win in 11 starts on the PGA Tour. Pavon also became the first Frenchman to win on TOUR since World War II.

The year of the longshots continues as the first four winners of the 2024 season were all greater than 100-1 to win pre-tournament.

Tournament	Winner	Pre-Tournament Odds
Farmers Insurance Open	Mattieu Pavon	140-1
The American Express	Nick Dunlap	300-1
Sony Open in Hawaii	Grayson Murray	400-1
The Sentry	Chris Kirk	200-1

 

Let’s get into this week’s storylines…

Tyrrell Hatton has joined the LIV Tour with a contract rumored to be roughly $60 Million. This is the second week in a row that we’ve had a player commit to an event and then back out the week of to join the rival Tour. As most know by now, Adrian Meronk, reigning DP World Tour Player of the Year, was committed to playing in the Farmers Insurance Open last week and on Tuesday announced his commitment to LIV. Tyrrell’s move to LIV is not only a sad day for PGA Tour fans who enjoyed his eccentric outbursts on the golf course but for Boston Common Golf fans as well. Hatton will join Jon Rham’s new team, Legion XIII.

Rory McIlroy will be making his 2024 season debut this week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He’s played twice overseas this year having a strong start to his DP World Tour campaign. This will be the second time he’s competed in this event having missed the cut back in 2018.

After winning The American Express, Nick Dunlap, the sophomore from Alabama has decided to turn pro. He’s in the field for this week’s event so it’ll be interesting to see how he does against a stronger field. Dunlap is now exempt on TOUR through the end of the 2026 season and has a spot in this season’s seven remaining seven Signature Events, as well as THE PLAYERS, Masters, U.S. Open, and PGA Championship.

This year’s event has undergone a format change. Last year, this tournament featured a three-course rotation of Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hills Golf Course, and Monterey Peninsula Country Club. After the first three rounds, the field would be cut to the top 65 before the final round on Sunday.

This year, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am has been elevated to a Sigurate Event which has sparked some changes. To start, the field has been reduced to 80 players. There will also not be a cut this year. In addition to these format changes, the course rotation has been cut as well and will only feature Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hills Golf Course. Players will play a round at both courses on Thursday and Friday. On the weekend, both rounds will take place at Pebble Beach Golf Links.

 

Tournament Information:

• Dates: February 1st, 2024 – January 4th, 2024
• Location: Pebble Beach, California, United States
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
  • Thursday – Friday: 2 Course Rotation
    • Pebble Beach Golf Links
    • Spyglass Hill Golf Course
  • Saturday – Sunday: Pebble Beach Golf Links
• Purse/ Winner: $20,000,000 /$3,600,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 700
• Field/ Cut: 80 Players | No Cut
• Playoff Format: Sudden Death

 

Pebble Beach Golf Links

• Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
• Length: 6,972 Yards
• Greens: Poa annua .125”
• Fairways: Ryegrass/Poa annua .450”
• Rough: Ryegrass/Poa annua 2-3”
• Bunkers: 116
• Water Hazard(s): 1- Pacific Ocean (In-Play on 1 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 3,500 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 10.5 ft.
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2023: 71.53 (-0.47), Rank 20 of 49
  • 2022: 70.76 (-1.24), Rank 35 of 50
  • 2021: 71.20 (-0.80), Rank 29 of 51

 

 

Comparable Courses & Greens:

 

Spyglass Hill

• Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
• Length: 7,041 Yards
• Greens: Poa annua .110”
• Fairways: Perennial rye/Poa annua .425”
• Rough: Perennial rye/Poa annua 2”
• Bunkers: 62
• Water Hazard(s): 4 (In-Play on 4 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 5,000 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 10.0 ft.
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2023: 2023: 72.80 (+0.80), Rank 8 of 49
  • 2022: 72.18 (+0.18), Rank 16 of 50
  • 2021: 72.79 (+0.79), Rank 11 of 51

 

 

Comparable Courses & Greens:

• Comparable Courses:
  • Colonial Country Club – Charles Schwab Challenge – RESULTS
    • Windy Conditions, Short Course, Small Greens, Emphasis on Accuracy off the Tee, 2nd shot golf course
  •  Harbour Town – RBC Heritage – RESULTS
    • Windy Conditions, Short Course, Small Greens, Emphasis on Accuracy off the Tee, 2nd shot golf course, Poa annua green complex
  • Waialae Country Club – Sony Open in Hawaii – RESULTS
    • Coastal, Short Course, Emphasis on Accuracy off the Tee, 2nd shot golf course
  • Sea Island Golf Club – RSM Classic – RESULTS
    • Coastal, Short Course, Emphasis on Accuracy off the Tee, 2nd shot golf course
  • Port Royal Golf Course – Butterfield Bermuda Championship – RESULTS
    • Coastal, Short Course, Emphasis on Accuracy off the Tee, 2nd shot golf course

 

TV Information:

• Round 1: Thursday, February 1st, 2024
  • Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 7:00 PM
• Round 2: Friday, February 2nd, 2024
  • Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 7:00 PM
• Round 3: Saturday, February 3rd, 2024
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM
  • CBS – 3:00 PM – 7:00 PM
• Round 4: Sunday, February 4th, 2024
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM
  • CBS – 3:00 PM -6:30 PM

 

Weather:

• Thursday: Rain 55 F, 11 mp/h SW, 83% Humidity, 75% Chance of Rain
• Friday: Showers 53 F, 14 mp/h WNW, 73% Humidity, 66% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: Mostly Cloudy 52 F, 7 mp/h NNW, 69% Humidity, 16% Chance of Rain
• Sunday: Rain 54 F,18 mp/h SE, 78% Humidity, 74% Chance of Rain

Pebble Beach has experienced heavy rainfall leading up to the tournament. It’s currently projected to rain from Wednesday to Friday. This should lead to softer conditions which will help players on their approach shots. Off the tee, Pebble Beach is very short so it shouldn’t play too much of a factor.

In the past, we’ve seen wind conditions play a factor, especially at Pebble Beach which is more exposed to the coastline. The current forecast has wins projected to be around 10-15 MPH each day. This will be another factor players have to consider on their approach shots.

Last year we saw weather conditions delay this finish at this event until Monday which is a possibility this year. However, it’s less likely since we have a smaller field and the Pro-Am only takes place for the first two rounds.

 

Course/ Tournament History:

The Tournament was founded back in 1937 as the Bing Crosby National Pro-Amateur. In 1986, the AT&T Corporation became the title sponsor and has retained the rights ever since. The tournament has rotated between several courses throughout its history but has stuck with the current three since 2010. In 2019, the U.S. Open was hosted at Pebble Beach with Gary Woodland coming away victorious.

This year’s event has undergone a format change. Last year, this tournament featured a three-course rotation of Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hills Golf Course, and Monterey Peninsula Country Club. After the first three rounds, the field would be cut to the top 65 before the final round on Sunday.

This year, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am has been elevated to a Sigurate Event which has sparked some changes. To start, the field has been reduced to 80 players. There will also not be a cut this year. In addition to these format changes, the course rotation has been cut as well and will only feature Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hills Golf Course. Players will play a round at both courses on Thursday and Friday. On the weekend, both rounds will take place at Pebble Beach Golf Links.

• Most Wins at Event:
  • 5, Mark O’Meara (1985, 1989, 1990, 1992, 1997) & Phil Mickelson (1998, 2005, 2007, 2012, 2019)
• 72-Hole Record:
  • 265, Brandt Snedeker (2015)
• 18-Hole Record (Pebble Beach Golf Links):
  • 62, Tom Kite (third round, 1983), David Duval (third round, 1997), Patrick Cantlay (first round, 2021), Matthias Schwab (second round, 2022)
• 18-Hole Record (Spyglass Hill):
  • 62, Phil Mickelson (first round, 2005), Luke Donald (first round, 2006)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

For the third week in a row, we have an event that utilizes multiple courses. On Thursday and Friday, golfers will play one round at Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill. Both of the weekend rounds will be played at Pebble Beach. This will be the first time since 2021 (COVID-19 Season) that we have seen three rounds played at Pebble Beach. Spyglass Hill doesn’t have ShotLink so Pebble Beach will be the sole provider of historical strokes gained data.

 

Pebble Beach Golf Links

Pebble Beach is the third shortest course on the PGA Tour playing just 6,972 yards. The main defense for this course, is the wind coming off the Pacific, to which the majority of the holes are exposed to. In addition to the wind, Pebble Beach features the smallest greens on TOUR. With the smaller greens, players have struggled to hit the greens in regulation placing an emphasis on SG: Around the Green and Scrambling. The average driving distance at this course is also much lower than the PGA TOUR Event average which makes sense. Off the tee, many players will choose to club down since the fairways are on the narrower side and the additional length doesn’t provide as much of an advantage as it would on a longer course. Also, some of the holes on this course force you to layup which impacts that as well.

The four Par 3’s range from 106 to 202 yards. Last year, No. 7 and No. 17 were the only two Par 3’s to have a scoring average under par.

No. 5, 192 yards, Par 3: Designed by Jack Nicklaus and opened for play in 1998, this green feeds from front-left to back-right. Beware of the bunker behind the green — it cuts into the putting surface more than it appears from the tee.

No. 7, 106 yards, Par 3: Take a look at the flag on the sixth green to gauge what the wind is doing. Aces have been made here with clubs ranging from a lob wedge to a 3-iron.

No. 17, 177 yards, Par 3: This iconic hourglass-shaped green can play 15 yards longer or shorter depending on the pin placement. The traditional Sunday U.S. Open hole location is back-left, where Jack Nicklaus famously hit the flag with a 1-iron and Tom Watson chipped in.

There are ten Par 4’s at Pebble Beach with the majority of those holes ranging between 400 and 450 yards. In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 on the course last year was No. 9.

No. 8, 427 yards, Par 4: From the bottom tees, an aiming rock helps you find this fairway, which pours over a cliff after about 240 yards. From there, enjoy what Jack Nicklaus calls his favorite approach shot in all of golf, over a seaside chasm to a green that steeply slopes from back to front. This was also the scene of Jordan Speith’s miraculous shot in 2022.

No. 9, 481 yards, Par 4: Welcome to the toughest hole of the 2019 U.S. Open. The fairway plateaus 200 yards from the green, before falling right to Carmel Beach. Big drives get you closer to this well-protected green, but you’ll have to deal with a downhill lie.

There are four Par 5s on the course, No. 2, No. 6, No. 14, and No. 18. All of these holes had a scoring average under par in 2023 except No. 18. Hole No. 2 was the easiest hole on the course last year with a scoring average of 0.238 below par.

No. 6, 506 yards, Par 5: Take a good look at where the green is as you walk up to your drive. The second shot of this iconic par-5 climbs nearly four stories to an elevated second fairway.

No. 18, 543 yards, Par 5: It’s the most famous finishing hole in golf. Aggressive drives attempting to reach this par-5 in two need to send their tee shots left of the tree in the fairway. Or you can safely play to the right of the tree, lay up, and wedge onto the green.

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 7, 18

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Spyglass Hill

Spyglass Hill Golf Course is the longer of the two courses featured this week. Listed at 7,041 yards, it’s the fifth shortest course on TOUR. The first five holes are the only holes exposed to winds off the Pacific Ocean. After that, the tree-lined holes limit the effect the wind has on the golf ball. The four Par 5’s on the course are long but it does feature some very short Par 4’s that players will need to take advantage of. The greens average around 5,000 sq. ft. which in comparison, is much larger than Pebble. However, just like Pebble, second shots will be placed at a premium.

The four Par 3’s range from 130 to 203 yards. Last year on Hole No. 15, which plays just 130 yards, more birdies were made than bogeys.

No. 3 ‘The Black Spot’, 172 yards, Par 3: The tee box yields a specular view of Cypress Point Club, Bird Rock, and Monterey Peninsula Country Club. Since this downhill shot faces the Pacific Ocean, it is almost always into a seaside breeze, making the distance difficult to calculate. Once you find the green, notice that putts race to the ocean.

No. 15 ‘Jim Hawkins’, 130 yards, Par 3: Barely longer than the famous seventh hole at Pebble Beach, this downhill par-3 is guarded by a pond short, and a hillside dotted with bunkers long. Watch out for a tier that divides the upper back half of the green from the lower front.

There are ten Par 4’s at Spyglass Hill with the majority of those holes ranging between 400 and 450 yards. In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 on the course last year was No. 6.

No. 4 ‘Blind Pew’, 370 yards, Par 4: This is Robert Trent Jones Sr.’s favorite par-4 he ever designed. Admire this wild green sunken between sand dunes. The putting surface is just 10 yards wide at its most forgiving, and some 55 yards deep. Be mindful of the hole location. It will dictate the type of shot you’ll want to play.

No. 17 ‘Ben Gunn’, 325 yards, Par 4: This short dogleg-left par-4 wraps around four fairway bunkers. You don’t need much off the tee, but you’ll want to keep your second shot below the hole. The 17th green is one of the steepest on the course.

There are four Par 5s on the course, No. 1, No. 7, No. 11, and No. 14. All of these holes had a scoring average under par in 2023.

No. 11 ‘Admiral Benbow’, 562 yards, Par 5: Aggressive drives that cut the corner can pay off big-time here, setting up reachable second shots into this par 5. If you can’t get home in two, it’s wise to lay up at the end of the first fairway, 125 yards out, and short of an armory of bunkers guarding the right half of the green.

No. 14 ‘Long John Silver’, 560 yards, Par 5: This double-doglegging par-5 is challenging to reach in two because of its shape. An imposing pond also starts 70 yards in front of the green. The middle half of this green does feed right, which can help approaches work their way toward a hole tucked behind the pond.

Hole	Name	Par	Yardage	Hole	Name	Par	Yardage
1	Treasure Island	5	595	10	Captain Flint	4	407
2	Billy Bones	4	349	11	Admiral Benbow	5	561
3	The Black Spot	3	172	12	Skeleton Island	3	178
4	Blind Pew	4	370	13	Tom Morgan	4	460
5	Bird Rock	3	203	14	Long John Silver	5	560
6	Isreal Hands	4	446	15	Jim Hawkins	3	130
7	Indian Village	5	549	16	Black Dog	4	476
8	Signal Hill	4	399	17	Ben Gunn	4	325
9	Captain Smollett	4	431	18	Spyglass	4	430
OUT		36	3514	IN		36	3527
				TOTAL		72	7041

 

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 4

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

Statistics	PGA Tour Average	Pebble Beach	Spyglass Hills
Driving Distance (Yards)	267.85	283.62	–
Driving Accuracy	72%	62%	64%
GIR Percentage	63%	66%	61%
Avg GIR Prox to Hole (Feet)	26.58	29.08	–
Scrambling Percentage	57%	58%	61%
Avg 3 Putts / Round	0.50	0.55	0.69

 

• Good Drives Gained
  • Unlike Torrey Pines, accuracy is more important than distance off the tee this week at Pebble Beach. Playing 6,972 yards, Pebble Beach is one of the shortest courses on TOUR. Many players will keep the driver in the bag on certain holes opting for a safer play. Good Drives Gained is a more indicative stat for success here at Pebble as it measures a player’s ability to hit a green in regulation whether they are in the fairway or not.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Scottie Scheffler (Total: +40.72, Per Round: +1.13)
    • J.J. Spaun (Total: +39.31, Per Round: +1.09)
    • Collin Morikawa (Total: +38.77, Per Round: +1.08)
    • Rory McIlroy (Total: +35.02, Per Round: +0.97)
    • Viktor Hovland (Total: +34.72, Per Round: +0.96)

• Strokes Gained: Approach
  • While Pebble Beach isn’t a long course by any means, it does feature the smallest greens on TOUR. Having a strong iron game will be important this week if players want to succeed.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Scottie Scheffler (Total: +50.05, Per Round: +1.39)
    • Lucas Glover (Total: +41.28, Per Round: +1.15)
    • Collin Morikawa (Total: +33.27, Per Round: +0.92)
    • Alex Smalley (Total: +28.97, Per Round: +0.80)
    • Xander Schauffele (Total: +28.82, Per Round: +0.80)

• Strokes Gained: Around the Green
  • This tournament has a much lower Greens in Regulation Percentage than the average TOUR Event. This means that players are going to miss greens at a higher rate forcing them to rely on their short game if they want to have success this week.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Rickie Fowler (Total: +20.13, Per Round: +0.56)
    • Scottie Scheffler (Total: +16.59, Per Round: +0.46)
    • Russell Henley (Total: +16.36, Per Round: +0.45)
    • Sam Stevens (Alternate)
    • Mackenzie Hughes (Total: +13.65, Per Round: +0.38)
    • Brendon Todd (Total: +13.07, Per Round: +0.36)

• Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa)
  • The green complexes at Pebble Beach are Poa annua .125”. Spyglass Hill also features a Poa annua green complex.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Denny McCarthy (Total: +38.82, Per Round: +1.08)
    • Max Homa (Total: +31.62, Per Round: +0.88)
    • Maverick McNealy (Total: +28.03, Per Round: +0.78)
    • Peter Malnati (Total: +26.40, Per Round: +0.73)
    • Matt Kuchar (Total: +25.19, Per Round: +0.70)

• Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 Yards (x2 Pebble Beach, x2 Spyglass Hill)
  • Two of the four Par 3’s at Pebble Beach range between 175-200 Yards. Two of the four Par 3’s at Spyglass Hill also range between 175-200 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Eric Cole (Total: +11.56, Per Round: +0.32)
    • Chris Kirk (Total: +10.99, Per Round: +0.31)
    • Collin Morikawa (Total: +8.92, Per Round: +0.25)
    • Luke List (Total: +8.86, Per Round: +0.25)
    • Brandon Wu (Total: +8.77, Per Round: +0.24)

• Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards (x5 Pebble Beach, x4 Spyglass Hill)
  • Five of the ten Par 4’s at Pebble Beach range between 400-450 Yards. Four of Spyglass Hill’s ten Par 4’s also range between 400-450 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Russell Henley (Total: +32.37, Per Round: +0.90)
    • Ludvig Aberg (Total: +21.02, Per Round: +0.58)
    • Beau Hossler (Total: +21.00, Per Round: +0.58)
    • Justin Rose (Total: +19.50, Per Round: +0.54)
    • Adam Scott (Total: +18.67, Per Round: +0.52)

• Par 5 Scoring: 500-550 Yards (x3 Pebble Beach)
  • Three of the four Par 5’s at Pebble Beach range between 500-550 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Chun-an (Kevin) Yu (Total: +15.03, Per Round: +0.42)
    • Tom Kim (Total: +12.35, Per Round: +0.34)
    • Sepp Straka (Total: +11.85, Per Round: +0.33)
    • Ludvig Aberg (Total: +10.68, Per Round: +0.30)
    • Luke List (Total: +8.30, Per Round: +0.23)

• Proximity Gained: 100-125 Yards
  • Below is the approach shot distribution chart from last year’s event (via DataGolf). Most approach shots come from the 100-125 yard range at a volume much higher than the PGA Tour average.

• • Leaders in Proximity Gained from 100-125 yards in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Hideki Matsuyama (Total: +367.92, Per Round: +10.22)
    • Brendon Todd (Total: +277.74, Per Round: +7.71)
    • Adam Hadwin (Total: +254.02, Per Round: +7.06)
    • Lucas Glover (Total: +219.28, Per Round: +6.09)
    • Camilo Villegas (Alternate)
    • Collin Morikawa (Total: +207.77, Per Round: +5.77)

• Comparable Courses and Event History
  • Looking at the Data Golf Course History Tool, good course history is indicative of success at Pebble Beach. Each of the past five winners has played in this tournament before winning and had registered a top-15 finish or better.

• •  Leaders in this category in the last (Multiple Events Played):
    • Jason Day (13 Events – 69.18 Scoring Average)
    • Jordan Spieth (11 Events – 69.25 Scoring Average)
    • Patrick Cantlay (6 Events – 69.38 Scoring Average)
    • Taylor Moore (2 Events – 69.38 Scoring Average)
    • Justin Rose (4 Events – 69.50 Scoring Average)

 

The Field/ Odds:

This year, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am field is comprised of the top 50 in last season’s FedExCup standings, the top 10 finishers in the FedExCup Fall standings (Aon Next 10), and the top five FedExCup points earners in the Sony Open in Hawaii, The American Express and Farmers Insurance Open (Aon Swing 5).

This is the best field we’ve seen at Pebble Beach since the 2019 U.S. Open. The format changes have attracted some of the biggest names in golf.

There will be 80 players competing in this year’s tournament. Eighteen of the top twenty players in the Official World Golf Ranking are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:

Rory McIlroy (+750) will make his first start of the 2024 PGA Tour Season. However, he’s played twice on the DP World Tour this month. Most recently he won the Hero Dubai Desert Classic and before that finished T2 in the Dubai Invitational. This will be his second appearance at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. In his event debut back in 2018, he missed the cut. In 2019, when Pebble Beach hosted the U.S. Open, McIlroy finished T9.

Scottie Scheffler (+800) will make his AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am debut this week. However, he did play in the 2019 U.S. Open where he missed the cut. He didn’t play in the Farmers Insurance Open last week but has played twice so far in the 2024 season. In his first two events of the year, he finished T5 at The Sentry and T17 at The American Express. He gained strokes in every category besides putting in both of those events.

Viktor Hovland (+1200) will make his third appearance at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. In 2020, he finished T38 at this event and more recently finished T13 last year. In 2019, when Pebble Beach hosted the U.S. Open, Hovland finished T12. So far, he’s only played in one event this season, The Sentry, where he finished T22.

Xander Schauffele (+1600) will make his second appearance at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. In his event debut back in 2017, he finished T66. However, he did play in the 2019 U.S. Open where he finished T3. He’s played in two events to start the 2024 season finishing T10 at The Sentry and T3 at The American Express.

Jordan Spieth (+1600) will make his second start of the 2024 PGA Tour Season. He played in the Sentry earlier this month where he finished 3rd. Spieth has some of the best course history at this event with multiple top-10 finishes. He’s also won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am back in 2017. In his eleven appearances at this tournament, he has never missed the cut.

 

• Previous Winners in the Field:
  • Justin Rose (’23), Tom Hoge (’22), Nick Taylor (’21), Jordan Spieth (’17)
• Debutants in the Field (Event):
  • Cameron Young, Collin Morikawa, Emiliano Grillo, Hideki Matsuyama, Ludvig Aberg, Matthieu Pavon, Nick Dunlap, Nicolai Hojgaard, Scottie Scheffler, Taylor Montgomery, Tom Kim, Tyrrell Hatton
• Players with Pebble Beach ties in the Field:
  • Maverick McNealy (Born in Portola Valley, CA & Went to Stanford), Collin Morikawa (Went to University of California, Berkeley)

• Notable Withdraws:
  • Tyrrell Hatton (Illness LIV Tour) -> IN: Hayden Buckley

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.

 

Projected Final Score

• 72 Hole Winning Score – 272.5 (-15.5)

Going back to 2015, all of the previous winners of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am have had a winning score of -17 or lower. However, when the U.S. Open was played here in 2019, Gary Woodland had a winning score of -13. The conditions for the U.S. Open were significantly harder than for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am as they grew the rough out to 3-5″ (currently 2-3″) and also cut the greens lower to .110″ (currently .125″). The weather is projected to be terrible and similar to what we saw last year. Even with the horrendous conditions, Justin Rose had a winning score of -18. We also have a much stronger field than any previous AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Based on all of the factors, I would lean over on the winning score being above 272.5 (-130).

To place a bet on the Projected Final Score of the Winner, you can click the following link.

 

Facts & Figures:

• 11 of the last 12 winners had already won on the PGA Tour
• Each of the last 12 winners have made 120+ career starts before winning here
• Each of the last 12 winners had a T16 or better finish in one of their previous three starts at this event

Credit to Tom Jacobs and Geoff Ulrich for the Information

 

Horses for Courses:

			AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am	AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am	AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am	AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am	AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
			Pebble Beach GL, Spyglass Hills GC, Monterey Peninsula GC	Pebble Beach GL, Spyglass Hills GC, Monterey Peninsula GC	Pebble Beach GL, Spyglass Hills GC, Monterey Peninsula GC	Pebble Beach GL, Spyglass Hills GC, Monterey Peninsula GC	Pebble Beach GL, Spyglass Hills GC, Monterey Peninsula GC
	Events Played	Scoring Average (per round)	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
Nick Taylor	9	70.00	T20	T14	T39	1	T28
Jason Day	13	69.18	–	T24	T7	4	T4
Jordan Spieth	11	69.25	T63	2	T3	T9	T45
Patrick Cantlay	6	69.38	–	T4	T3	T11	–
Maverick McNealy	5	69.76	WD	T33	2	T5	–
Max Homa	6	70.77	–	–	T7	T14	T10
Beau Hossler	7	70.38	T11	3	T47	T38	MC
Taylor Moore	2	69.38	T15	T16	–	–	–
Justin Rose	4	69.50	1	62	–	–	–
Vikor Hovland	2	70.25	T13	–	–	T38	–

 

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.

			AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am	AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am	AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am	AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am	AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
			Pebble Beach GL, Spyglass Hills GC, Monterey Peninsula GC	Pebble Beach GL, Spyglass Hills GC, Monterey Peninsula GC	Pebble Beach GL, Spyglass Hills GC, Monterey Peninsula GC	Pebble Beach GL, Spyglass Hills GC, Monterey Peninsula GC	Pebble Beach GL, Spyglass Hills GC, Monterey Peninsula GC
	Events Played	Scoring Average (per round)	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
Patrick Rodgers	5	71.27	–	MC	MC	MC	MC
Stephan Jaeger	3	71.40	–	MC	–	–	MC
Grayson Murray	6	71.89	MC	MDF	MC	–	MC
Davis Riley	3	71.56	MC	T49	MC	–	–
J.J. Spaun	5	72.53	–	T16	MC	MC	MC

 

Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):

• 2023: Justin Rose (-18)
  • Price: 35-1

	SG: Off the Tee	SG: Tee to Green	SG: Approach	SG: Around the Green	SG: Putting
Justin Rose	57	7	14	4	14

 

• 2022: Tom Hoge (-19)
  • Price: 60-1

	SG: Off the Tee	SG: Tee to Green	SG: Approach	SG: Around the Green	SG: Putting
Tom Hoge	19	3	4	22	3

 

• 2021: Daniel Berger (-18)
  • Price: 18-1

	SG: Off the Tee	SG: Tee to Green	SG: Approach	SG: Around the Green	SG: Putting
Daniel Berger	7	2	6	11	18

 

• 2020: Nick Taylor (-19)
  • Price: 160-1

	SG: Off the Tee	SG: Tee to Green	SG: Approach	SG: Around the Green	SG: Putting
Nick Taylor	54	19	13	13	2

 

• 2019: Phil Mickelson (-19)
  • Price: 25-1

	SG: Off the Tee	SG: Tee to Green	SG: Approach	SG: Around the Green	SG: Putting
Phil Mickelson	26	2	1	30	20

 

 

Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):

• 2023: Justin Rose
  • T18 – Farmers Insurance Open (PGA)
  • T26 – The American Express (PGA)
  • T29 – The RSM Classic (PGA)
  • T9 – Cadence Bank Houston Open (PGA)
  • MC- World Wide Technology Championship (PGA)

• 2022: Tom Hoge
  • MC – Farmers Insurance Open (PGA)
  • T4 – The RSM Classic (PGA)
  • T46 – Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open (PGA)
  • T46- World Wide Technology Championship (PGA)
  • 17 – ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP (PGA)

• 2021: Daniel Berger
  • MC – Waste Management Phoenix Open (PGA)
  • T7 – Sony Open in Hawaii (PGA)
  • 10 – Sentry Tournament of Champions (PGA)
  • T23 – Mayakoba Golf Classic (PGA)
  • T17 – ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP (PGA)

• 2020: Nick Taylor
  • T49 – Waste Management Phoenix Open (PGA)
  • MC – The American Express (PGA)
  • T32 – Sony Open in Hawaii (PGA)
  • MC – The RSM Classic (PGA)
  • T26 – Mayakoba Golf Classic (PGA)

• 2019: Phil Mickelson
  • MC – Waste Management Phoenix Open (PGA)
  • T2 – Desert Classic (PGA)
  • T17 – Safeway Open (PGA)
  • 30 – TOUR Championship (PGA)
  • T58 – BMW Championship (PGA)

 

Previous Winners Finishes at Event:

• 2023: Justin Rose
  • 62 – 2022 (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
  • T39 – 2017 (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
  • T6 – 2016  (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)

• 2022: Tom Hoge
  • 12 – 2021 (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
  • T60 – 2020 (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
  • MC – 2019 (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
  • MC – 2018 (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
  • T39 – 2017 (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
  • T41 – 2016 (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
  • MC – 2015 (AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am)

• 2021: Daniel Berger
  • T5 – 2020 (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
  • T10 – 2015 (AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am)

• 2020: Nick Taylor
  • T28 – 2019 (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
  • MC – 2018 (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
  • T10 – 2017 (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
  • T30 – 2016 (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
  • MC – 2015 (AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am)

• 2019: Phil Mickelson
  • T2 – 2018 (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
  • 65 – 2017 (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
  • 2 – 2016 (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
  • T19 – 2014 (AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am)
  • T60 – 2013 (AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am)
  • WON – 2012 (AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am)
  • T9 – 2011 (AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am)
  • T8 – 2010 (AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am)
  • T55 – 2009 (AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am)
  • MC – 2008 (AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am)
  • WON – 2007 (AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am)
  • T38 – 2006 (AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am)
  • WON – 2005 (AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am)
  • 3 – 2004 (AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am)

 

Picks (Outrights):

• Max Homa (+1800) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 0.45 to win 8.10 Units

Homa is a West Coast specialist with a majority of wins coming in his home state of California. In his first two starts of the 2024 season, he finished T14 at The Sentry and T13 at the Farmers Insurance Open. He has some great history at this event finishing inside the top 15 in each of his last three appearances.

This event has shown that a hot putter is directly correlated with success. Homa currently ranks #1 in the field in SG: Putting (Poa) in the last 36 rounds. He also ranks well in several other key categories this week. In his last start at the Farmers, he struggled with his approach shots but still managed a decent finishing position. He’s also one of the better players when it comes to windy conditions which is another advantage this week.

 

• J.T. Poston (+5000) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 0.16 to win 8.00 Units

Poston has had a stellar start to the 2024 Season. In his first three starts this year, he finished T5 at The Sentry, 6th at the Sony Open in Hawaii, and T11 at The American Express. He’s played in this event twice before finishing T68 in 2018 and T66 in 2017. However, since those finishes his approach game has significantly improved. Along with his iron game, his putting remains great and his tee game is also on the upswing.

Poston also had some success on a few comp courses last year finishing T21 at the Sony Open (Waialae Country Club), and T21 at the RSM Classic (Sea Island Golf Club).

 

• Eric Cole (+6600) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 0.13 to win 8.58 Units

Eric Cole put together a string of strong finishes to start the 2024 season but struggled last week at the Farmers Insurance Open failing to make the cut. He’s struggled with his putting the past few weeks which is a slight concern. Despite that, he was a great putter in the first two events so if he’s able to turn that around he should have a shot this week. In his only previous appearance at this tournament, he finished T15. He’s had some solid finishes at comp courses this week including Sea Island Golf Club (T3) and Waialae Country Club (T13).

 

• Adam Scott (+7500) – FanDuel
  • Risk: 0.11 to win 8.25 Units

Adam Scott will make his first appearance of the 2024 PGA Tour season. His spot in the field is even a little questionable as he’s on the PGA Tour board and received one of the sponsor exemptions. He’s been overseas playing in the DP World Tour. Scott has had some pretty impressive results over there finishing T7 at the Hero Dubai Desert Classic, T4 at the ISPS Handa Australian Open, and 6th at the Fortinet Australian PGA Championship. Heading into the later part of the 2023 season Scott’s game improved. Last year he did well at a few comparable courses including Port Royal (T5), Harbour Town (T31), and Waialae (T21).

In terms of this event, he hasn’t had a ton of success here. His downfall in those appearances was his putting and his accuracy off the tee. However, based on his last few starts, he’s been much better in both categories. While he hasn’t won a PGA Tour event since 2020, we also saw a similar situation with Rose winning here last year having not won since 2019. It should also be noted that while Scott hasn’t done well at this tournament in the past, he did finish T7 in the U.S. Open that was played at Pebble.

 

• Chun-an (Kevin) Yu (+10000) – FanDuel
  • Risk: 0.08 to win 8.00 Units

Chun-an (Kevin) Yu has had a stellar start to the 2024 season. In his last two events, he finished T3 at The American Express and T6 at the Farmers Insurance Open. Last year in his first start at Pebble, he finished T7. He’s a terrific ball striker who has had issues with his play on the green in the past. However, in his last two starts on Tour, he gained strokes putting.

Yu has also had success at other coastal courses including a T3 finish at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship and a T21 finish at the Sony Open. He hasn’t won yet on the PGA Tour but as we’ve seen in the past four events of the season, anything can happen.

 

• Adam Hadwin (+10000) – FanDuel
  • Risk: 0.08 to win 8.00 Units

Hadwin last played in this tournament back in 2022 where he posted a T16 finish. He’s played in the AT&T Pebble Bacvk Pro-Am three additional times finishing MC-T18-T39. His approach game has always been on and off but it seems to be trending in the right direction.

In his last three starts, he finished T6 at The American Express, MC at the Sony Open, and T14 at The Sentry. At the Sony Open, Hadwin’s inconsistency off the tee hurt him in addition to his putting. I’m not too worried about either category this week as we saw him rebound the week after at the American Express.

 

• Nick Taylor (+11000) – FanDuel
  • Risk: 0.08 to win 8.80 Units

Nick Taylor won this event back in 2020 putting his way to victory. Since then, he’s finished T39 (2021), T14 (2022), and T20 (2023) at this event. We’ve seen plenty of players win this event multiple times so I wouldn’t be shocked if he wins it again based on his current form.

In his most recent start, he missed the cut at The American Express. Before that, he had a T7 finish at the Sony Open in Hawaii (comp course), and tied for 52nd at The Sentry. Taylor is a great ball striker with his approach numbers proving it in those last few events. He has struggled with his short game in the past but it looks to be slowly improving. Off the tee, he struggles with distance which shouldn’t be an issue this week given the length of the course. His putting has also been great as of late and based on his 2020 performance he may do the same thing this week.

 

• Brendon Todd (+11000) – FanDuel
  • Risk: 0.08 to win 8.80 Units

Brendon Todd wasn’t on my original card but after looking more into his stats, I couldn’t leave him off. In his first two starts of the season, he finished T30 at the Sony Open in Hawaii and T33 at The Sentry. He lost strokes off the tee in both of those events due to his distance, not his accuracy. Todd isn’t a bomber off the tee by any means but is consistently accuracy which is more important this week.

He has some impressive course history this week finished T2 at last year’s event and T16 in 2022. Todd has seemed to find some stability with his putting and approach game so I think he has a shot this week. I picked him to win this event last year and he came up short so hopefully he doesn’t disappoint again.

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.18 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

• Matthew Fitzpatrick (+115) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.15 Units

Given the current conditions, Fitzpatrick is always a guy that jumps out for me. He struggled at the Sony Open in his last start missing the cut. He lost strokes in every category besides on approach. In his only other start of 2024, he finished T14 at The Sentry. This will be his fourth time playing at Pebble with his best finish coming back in 2022 (T6). At the 2019, U.S. Open Fitzpatrick finished T12.

Last year, Fitzpatrick had his struggles, especially with his iron game. However, he turned that around and was able to win at the RBC Heritage, which is a comp course this week. He thrives in these short courses where he can plot his way around and rely on his approach shots. We saw him take this approach at the Country Club in 2022 where he won the U.S. Open.

 

• Nicolai Hojgaard (+140) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.40 Units

Hojgaard is coming off a strong finish at the Farmers Insurance Open finishing 2nd, gaining strokes in every category. This was the first event in his past three starts that he has gained strokes on the green. I’m not sure if it had to do with the Poa Annua surface, but hopefully, there is some correlation as Pebble has a similar green complex. Hojgaard is known for his ball-striking ability and his approach game has remained in good form.

He’s proven he can compete with the stars as he defeated Rahm, Hovland, Rory, and a few others at the DP World Tour Championship. Even a week before that, he finished runner-up to Max Homa at the Nedbank Golf Challenge.

This will be his debut at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am so we don’t have any course history to go off of. If we look back last year he proved that he could still play well in windy conditions shown at The Open and the Genesis Scottish Open. He’s also had success at coastal courses as well posting a 2nd place finish at the Corales Puntacana Championship.

 

• Beau Hossler (+160) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.60 Units

Hossler had a strong finish to the 2023 season with three consecutive top-15 finishes to end the Fall Swing. He struggled in his first event of 2025 finishing T47 at The American Express losing strokes on approach. He rebounded well at the Farmers Insurance Open putting together an impressive performance to finish T6.

Hossler is from Califonia and has had success at this event in the past finishing 3rd in 2022 and T11 in 2023. Off the tee, Hossler’s strength is certainly accuracy over distance which is advantageous for this week’s event.

Total Risk on Top 20s: 3.00 Units

 

As always, all of my placement bets are through BetMGM as they’re one of the only books without dead-heat rules. If you’d like to bet these placements at BetMGM, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user.

Here’s my link to sign up at BetMGM!

 

Total Risk on the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: 4.09 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.