Coming off a 1-1, even night, I’m rolling with 2 more plays for today looking to break out. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Rays/Brewers F5 UNDER 3.5(-105)–1:10 PM CT
Brewers SP Brandon Woodruff got off to a rough start this year, but since May 15th, Woodruff has allowed 2 ER or less in 9 of his 10 starts; he has allowed 1 ER or less in 6 of those 10 starts. Given Woodruff held a sub-1.00 WHIP in both the 2020 and 2021 seasons, I think he’s a very trustworthy arm in this matchup. The Rays sit above .500 almost exclusively because of their pitching; this offense ranks 23rd in runs, 24th in HR’s, and holds a dead-on average 100 wRC+ on the road vs righties this season. I still think Woodruff has plenty of positive regression to come throughout the rest of the season, and I don’t view this as an overly tough matchup for the righty.
Is there a more underrated SP in baseball than Jeffrey Springs? All the Rays lefty has done this year is pitch to a 2.50 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, and those numbers stay consistent on the road. This Brewers offense STINKS vs left-handed pitching, bringing an 89 wRC+ vs lefties this year into today’s matchup. Considering those numbers don’t improve at all in their home ballpark, I think Springs can make quick work of this Brew Crew order.
*MLB(1u): Rockies TT OVER 5.5(+115) vs Cardinals–7:40 PM CT
The Rockies erupted for 16 runs in last night’s game and in general have been an offense I like backing at Coors Field. This is also a group that fares better against left-handed pitching; they lead the league with an .856 OPS vs lefties in their home ballpark this year. Cardinals SP Jose Quintana has had a resurgence this season, but just a few weeks ago, we saw him yield 6 ER in 5 innings at Coors Field. I also think Quintana’s 3.39 ERA is somewhat deceiving considering he holds a 1.23 WHIP in addition to a career ERA closer to 4.00. I like this matchup for the Rockies offense.
I’m not afraid to go against this Cardinals bullpen, especially considering they’ll have to get outs in this tough hitting environment. This unit still ranks outside of the top 10 in bullpen WHIP and is prone to its share of blowups nights.
