We lost by the hook on each of yesterday’s plays, but I’m back with 2 more plays for today looking to flip the script. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Red Sox F5 TT OVER 2.5(-130) vs Orioles–6:10 PM CT
The Red Sox have had their well-documented struggles as a team since July 1st, but I have seen progress at the plate as of late. Boston enters tonight having scored over 5 runs/game over their last 5 and were able to score 11 runs in their 2-game set against the Braves facing established righties like Charlie Morton and Kyle Wright. Coming off the heels of that series, they should be able to dig in nicely in a much more favorable matchup.
Orioles SP Dean Kremer might hold a 3.43 ERA, but his 1.32 WHIP is much more reflective of the caliber of arm he truly is. Kremer’s fly-ball tendencies might play well in the newly expanded Camden Yards, but it is anything but suitable for a hitters-park like Fenway Park. Kremer is giving up over 1 hit per inning this season and also sees his WHIP jump up to 1.50 on the road. I see zero chance Kremer finishes the year with an ERA under 4.00(it could climb well above that); these are the types of matchups that are going to bite him.
I couldn’t talk anybody off the F5 OVER, but I saw things in Josh Winckowski’s last start that signal he finally might be settling in after a rough start to the season. Still, he’s found no success at Fenway Park. I isolated the matchup I felt best about.
*MLB(0.77u): Phillies -1.5(+130) vs Marlins–12:05 PM CT
Considering how stark the difference is in each of these teams’ current forms, offering a +130 to back Philadelphia in any way is unjustifiable.
The Phillies enter today’s game having won 7 straight games, including the first two games of this series. Phillies SP Kyle Gibson holds a 1.06 WHIP in his home ballpark and has enough skins on the wall to where I feel comfortable trusting him late in the season. The Phillies have also scored just under 7 runs/game on this current win streak. Considering they plated 4 runs off of Sandy Alcantara last night, it’s safe to say this offense is in dazzling current form.
On the other hand, the Marlins are 2-6 in the month of August and have scored 13 TOTAL runs in those 8 games. Since July 1st, they have been the 2nd worst offense in the league vs right-handed pitching. With 5 key bats still on the IL, why would expect things to change today? Marlins SP Edward Cabrera has looked good in a small sample this year, but over his career, Cabrera is walking nearly 6 batters per 9 innings; that worsens when he’s on the road. That might explain why a guy that talented has a 5.29 FIP and 1.38 WHIP so far in his young career.
I also give the Phillies a slight bullpen edge in the later innings. At the end of the day, +130 is unjustifiable.
