We started the weekend off with a 2-1, +0.9u night! I’m rolling with 3 more plays for tonight looking to add to that. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group.
*MLB(1u): Padres TT OVER 5.5(-120) @ Nationals–6:05 PM CT
The Padres struggled mightily after their splash moves at the Trade Deadline, but this is a lineup that has clearly rounded into form. The Friars have plated 30 runs over their last 3 games, including 10 in last night’s game against these Nationals. Considering who they’ll face tonight, I expect this upward trend to continue.
Nationals SP Anibal Sanchez is hanging on to a pipe dream at this point. The 38 year old righty has lost all 5 of his starts this year, carrying a 7.56 ERA and 1.56 WHIP into tonight’s start. Most concerning, Sanchez is now allowing more fly balls than ground balls for the first time since 2017; as such, he has allowed 8 HR’s in his 5 starts.
The Nationals also have a bottom 5 bullpen in the league and are anything but fresh by nature of getting blown out pretty routinely in the month of August.
*MLB(1u): Mets F5 -0.5(-125) vs Phillies–6:10 PM CT
I don’t think people grasp how great Mets SP Jacob DeGrom truly is. In 15 starts last year, DeGrom pitched to a 1.08 ERA and 0.55 WHIP and allowed just 40 hits in 92 innings. In 2 starts this year, DeGrom has allowed just 5 baserunners. Not only have the Phillies been poor against righties on the road this summer(86 wRC+ in this role since June 1st), but they have found no success off of DeGrom in the past. The projected starting lineup for the Phillies is just a career 13-for-93 off of DeGrom, and might be without Kyle Schwarber once again.
Phillies SP Aaron Nola has had a very good 2022 season(sub-1.00 WHIP), but he is obviously going to be at a disadvantage in this pitching matchup. In addition, the Mets pose a pretty tough matchup; this lineup holds a 117 wRC+ vs righties at home since June 1st. The Mets are very familiar with Nola and have gotten to him in the past; 6 of the 9 projected starters have a career OPS above .825 off of Nola. 1 of 2 runs is all we may need to cash this bet.
*MLB(1u): Rangers F5 ML(-115) vs Mariners–6:15 PM CT
Rangers SP Dane Dunning is a completely different pitcher in his home ballpark than he is on the road. Dunning held a 3.09 ERA at home last year and holds a 3.00 ERA and 1.07 WHIP at home this season. It’s not hard to see why Dunning’s heavy ground ball nature plays nicely in the new Rangers’ park. The Mariners might be slightly above average in this role, but this is not a lineup I’m afraid to go against. Dunning held the Rangers to 2 ER in 7 innings earlier this summer at home, and I’d expect a similar line tonight.
Mariners SP Marco Gonzales is a soft-throwing lefty that has found his niche in Seattle, but he has been shaky at best on the road. Gonzales already allows well over 1 hit per inning, but on the road, he’s walking nearly 4 batters per 9 innings and allowing 1.9 HR/9; his 1.61 road WHIP is nasty. This is also a tough matchup facing a Rangers lineup that ranks 1st in the league with a 152 wRC+ vs lefties in their home ballpark since June 1st. Texas pounded Gonzales for 11 hits and 5 ER at Globe Life Field earlier this summer(we were on that), proving this is an arm they match up well with.
