A 5-3, +1.7u weekend got me back into the green overall this MLB season. I’m rolling with a pair of plays looking to start the new week off strong! To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Mariners/Angels F5 UNDER 3.5(-125)–8:38 PM CT
This is as top-of-the-line of a pitching matchup as you could have drawn up. Considering I believe the F5 total should be set at 3, I do see value in backing each of these SP’s tonight.
Angels SP Shohei Ohtani is an easy guy to back, ESPECIALLY in his home ballpark. Ohtani pitched to a sub-2.00 ERA at Angel Stadium last year, and here in 2022, he holds a 2.25 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in his home ballpark. In his one prior matchup against Seattle this year, Ohtani twirled 6 shutout innings. While the Mariners have above average numbers in this role, this is still a lineup I can’t give the benefit of the doubt when stepping up in competition(look at how they stepped up against the Astros’ better arms).
Since June 1st of last year, Luis Castillo has been one of the best performing pitchers in baseball. In only 2 starts as a Mariner, he has established himself as their best arm after throwing 8 scoreless innings against the Yankees last week. Tonight, he’ll face one of the most deadbeat lineups in the league. Since June 1st, the Angels hold the second-lowest wRC+ vs righties in all of baseball. We’ve had great success fading this lineup, and until Mike Trout returns from injury, I’ll probably continue to look for chances to fade this feeble unit.
*MLB(1u): Giants F5 -0.5(-130) vs Diamondbacks–8:45 PM CT
Giants SP Alex Cobb checks a lot of the boxes I look for in SP’s. Cobb is allowing just 0.5 HR/9 at Oracle Park this year in large part because he produces over 3 times as many ground balls as he does fly balls. Overall, he’s pitched to a 3.00 ERA and 1.16 WHIP at home this year and sees his overall FIP at 2.91. The Diamondbacks have been pretty subpar in this role, carrying a 91 wRC+ on the road vs righties since June 1st. I’m expecting Cobb to hold the D-Backs in check.
Diamondbacks SP Madison Bumgarner is obviously a legend in San Francisco, but he is WELL past his prime. The lefty’s WHIP sits at 1.40, he is allowing well over 1 hit per inning, and his numbers are much worse on the road(4.88 ERA, 1.54 WHIP). This is a tougher matchup than people think; the Giants have recorded a 125 wRC+ vs lefties in their home park this year and enter tonight having scored 5 runs/game over their last 8. Bumgarner is a stubborn guy who has refused to adapt to his diminishing ability, and I believe it will continue to bite him tonight like it has all year.
