August Record: 11-8-4, +3.63u
*MLB(1u): Indians ML(+104) @ Twins–7:10 PM CT
–The Indians are coming off a nice series in Detroit that saw them take 2 out of 3 and win yesterday’s rubber match decisively. In the 11-0 win, Triston McKenzie flirted with a perfect game, meaning the main pieces in Cleveland’s bullpen weren’t needed. The Indians have the much better bullpen, and that’s even more true when they’re completely fresh like they will be tonight. Each of today’s SP’s are on hot stretches right now, but I’m more inclined to trust Indians SP Cal Quantrill. Over his last 6 starts, Quantrill has managed to give up no more than 2 runs and has gone at least 5 innings in each of those starts. This stretch has seen him lower his season ERA to 3.13. The Twins offense does not present an easy matchup, but it’s hard to go against Quantrill in his current form. Twins SP Griffin Jax has also pitched well as of late, but he’s making just his 6th career start tonight. The Indians aren’t fantastic at the plate, but they’re plenty capable of taking advantage of a pitcher who has his struggles with command. Considering the substantial bullpen advantage in this game, getting the Indians at plus-money is great value.
*MLB Best Bet(1.5u): Mets/Giants F5 UNDER 4.5(-110)–8:45 PM CT
–The Mets just got swept at home against the Dodgers, and now they have to travel across the country to face off with one of the best teams in the league. Oh, and they’ll face an All Star pitcher with a 2.29 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. The Mets struggle offensively in the easiest of matchups, so considering what I just laid out for you, it’s hard to see them having much success on offense tonight. However, when playing totals, you need contributions from both sides. Mets SP Rich Hill is better than his 4.05 ERA indicates, and he should give the Giants a tough look tonight. San Francisco obliterates righties(especially at home), but against lefties, they are much more pedestrian. Hill’s hard contact rate is a respectable 21.6%, and he was brought over by New York to keep the Mets in games just like this. Each team has a ton to play for right now; in these types of series where the stakes are high, an Under is always worth a look. I don’t want the bullpens involved in this play, so I feel more comfortable in making the F5 Under tonight’s best bet.
