August Record: 11-10-4, +0.98u
*MLB Best Bet(1.5u): Astros/Royals OVER 9.5(-115)–7:10 PM CT
Astros SP Framber Valdez might have a 3.09 ERA on the season, but his 1.30 WHIP tells the more complete story of the kind of starter he is. Valdez has an abysmal 4.3 BB/9, and he has shown no signs of improving that yet this season. The Royals might be out of playoff contention, but their lineup still features plenty of capable hitters(mostly righties) that should match up well with the lefty Valdez. That being said, when you look at Royals SP Daniel Lynch’s underlying numbers, he could be in for an awakening tonight. In addition to his 1.61 WHIP through 7 starts this season, Lynch’s hard contact rate is at an astonishing 32.6%. The Astros tagged the Royals for 6 runs last night, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they could get to that mark off of Lynch alone. Houston has a clear bullpen advantage over KC, but with a WHIP at 1.29 on the season, they are still susceptible to coughing up runs in the late innings.
*MLB(1u): Rockies F5 ML(-115) vs Padres–7:40 PM CT
If you’ve been following baseball closely this season, you’re probably aware that the Rockies’ home/road splits are historic. As a refresher, this team is 39-21 at home compared to 14-45 on the road. They took down the Padres in walk-off fashion at home last night, and considering tonight’s pitching matchup, they should have the advantage again. Colorado SP German Marquez has had himself quite the season; surprisingly, he’s actually pitched better at Coors Field(3.05 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 0.4 HR/9) than he has on the road. He’s no stranger to this Padres order and has held their core at bay throughout his career. The Padres will send Matt Strahm to the hill to make his first start since 2019. While he likely won’t go more than a couple of innings, the abundance of righties in the Rockies lineup should have their chances to snag an early lead and give Marquez some breathing room.
