Coming off a 3-0, +3.1u night, I’m rolling with 3 more plays for tonight. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Mets F5 -0.5(-110) @ Braves–6:20 PM CT
The Braves have dominated the first two games of this series, but the dynamics here in Game 3 completely favor the Mets. I oftentimes get priced out of backing an arm like Max Scherzer, but this line is not tilted enough in his favor.
Scherzer has been one of (if not the) best pitchers in baseball since 2013, holding a sub-1.00 WHIP in 7 of the last 10 seasons. In addition to his sub-2.00 ERA here in 2022, Scherzer has mowed down the Braves this year. In 2 starts(14 innings), Scherzer has allowed just 1 ER, 7 baserunners, and struck out 20 Atlanta hitters. Aside from Ronald Acuna Jr, the rest of this Braves order has had no answers against Mad Max throughout their careers.
The Mets offense has looked lifeless in this series, but it’s worth noting they faced Spencer Strider and Charlie Morton. Today’s SP, Jake Odorizzi, will not figure into the rotation come October(or sooner) and presents a very attackable matchup for the Mets’ bats. Odorizzi holds a 2.08 WHIP in his 2 starts as a Brave and yielded 9 baserunners in 4.2 innings against the Mets on August 6th. I also worry that Odorizzi’s 0.78 ground ball/fly ball rate is going to bite him down the stretch of this season.
*MLB(1u): Cardinals -1.5(+110) vs Rockies–6:45 PM CT
Cardinals SP Jordan Montgomery has looked fantastic in his 2 starts as a Cardinal, throwing 11 scoreless innings. I think his heavy ground-ball and soft-contact tendencies will continue to play well at Busch Stadium, and this is another very favorable matchup. The Rockies found marginal success against lefties on the road to start the year, but since June 1st, this lineup holds a measly 77 wRC+ in this role. Fading this offense on the road has been a profitable endeavor for me this season.
Rockies SP German Marquez has had a disastrous 2022 season, bringing a 5.08 ERA and 1.42 WHIP into tonight’s start. While you might think a lot of that failure is due to having to pitch at Coors Field(some of it is), he has not looked all that much better on the road. Specifically, Marquez is striking out just over 6 batters per 9 innings on the road while also walking over 4 per 9 on the road. The Cardinals are averaging just under 5.5 runs/game here in the month of August; since June 1st, they hold a 118 wRC+ vs righties in their home ballpark. As a bonus, 5 projected starters hold a career OPS above 1.000 in their matchups vs Marquez.
The Cardinals’ bullpen might not be a strength, but by nature of the Rockies bullpen ranking 28th in bullpen WHIP, the Cardinals hold a significant advantage in the later innings. We should not be getting plus-money on this.
*MLB(1u): Astros/White Sox F5 UNDER 4(+100)–7:10 PM CT
White Sox SP Michael Kopech has been phenomenal at home this year(2.81 ERA, 0.99 WHIP). Kopech has particularly stepped up nicely in his tougher home starts, and this matchup might be more favorable than you’d think. While the Astros might be the most complete team in the American League, they bring in a mediocre 103 wRC+ vs righties on the road since June 1st. Judging how they have looked at the plate in this series, I give Kopech the edge on the mound.
Astros SP Framber Valdez is one of my favorite pitchers to back, specifically when he’s on the road(2.21 ERA, 1.03 WHIP away from home this year). Valdez is allowing just 0.44 HR/9 this year due to the fact that he produces 6 times as many ground balls as he does fly balls. While the White Sox have historically matched up well with left-handed pitching, I think you have to put Valdez in his own category of left-hander due to his unique style. Also, with Tim Anderson out and Luis Robert still banged up, this White Sox order is less dangerous in this role than they might otherwise be at full strength.
I made this F5 total 3.5, so I felt comfortable playing this at 4(especially at even odds).
