August Record: 12-11-4, +0.26u
*MLB(1u): Giants -1.5(+130) vs Mets–2:45 PM CT
The Mets find themselves in the midst of an untimely 5 game skid; it’s gotten so bad that Mets owner Steve Cohen decided to call out the whole offense via Twitter this morning. While the Mets are bound to turn things around, I don’t think today’s the day they’ll do it. Giants SP Anthony DeSclafani has been steady for the Giants all season and got back on track in his last start after a brief rough patch. The Giants bullpen boasts the lowest WHIP of any bullpen in baseball(1.09), something that is crucial for me to lay runs with a team. The Giants might cough up a few runs today, but their offense is poised for a big day facing Mets SP Tylor Megill. Megill has had a solid rookie campaign, but his road ERA is almost 2.5 runs higher than his home ERA. Moreover, I don’t think he’s capable of handling the pressure that this start presents. By plunging offensively, the Mets have put a tremendous amount of pressure on their pitching to carry the load. You won’t find a team that hits righties better at home than San Francisco, so to ask a rookie to lead the way is not a recipe for success. The Mets bullpen isn’t horrible, but they are certainly prone to disastrous outings. This play seems too easy(especially at this price), but the Mets have given bettors no reason to trust them as of late. I like the Giants to complete the sweep in convincing fashion this afternoon.
*MLB(1u): Blue Jays -1.5(-105) @ Nationals–3:05 PM CT
The Nationals took down the Blue Jays last night to win just their 3rd game in the month of August. Aside from Juan Soto and Josh Bell, this lineup is filled with guys who are better suited for the minor leagues. Blue Jays SP Jose Berrios has a clear path to a dominant outing today. Nationals Park tends to favor the pitchers, and Berrios has managed to consistently flourish in much harder matchups than he’ll have tonight. Remember, the Blue Jays paid a hefty price for Berrios at the deadline; considering how hit-or-miss the Jays pitching staff has been this season, a steady piece like Berrios should greatly benefit Toronto. Nats SP Josiah Gray figures to have a bright future, but in his 5 appearances this season, he has given up a total of 9 HR’s; that includes his last outing when he surrendered 3 HR’s to the Braves. That matches up horribly with a Blue Jays offense that hits the long ball at the 2nd highest rate in the league. After Gray, the Nationals bullpen has virtually no solid options to match up with this lethal Toronto lineup. All things considered, I think we’re getting the Blue Jays RL at a reasonable price today. With their playoff aspirations still alive, I like the Jays to win by margin today.
*MLB(1u): Red Sox/Yankees OVER 10(-115)–6:05 PM CT
While I typically like to look towards the Under in high leverage games, each SP could be in for a beating today. Yankees SP Andrew Heaney has been laughably bad since being acquired at the deadline; in only 3 starts as a Yankee, Heaney has already allowed 8 HR’s and given up 4 or more ER in each appearance. The Red Sox lineup is certainly not in great current form, but they have been reliable all season long. Considering how well they handle lefties, tonight could very well be the night we see them break out in a big way. While I would play the Red Sox if I had to play a side, it’s hard to ignore how well the Yankees have played in August. At 13-4 on the month, the Bronx Bombers have put themselves squarely back in the playoff race. Boston SP Nick Pivetta is in great current form, but he is not accustomed to pitching in meaningful games late in the season. The Yankees will welcome back a much needed lefty bat in Anthony Rizzo tonight, and it helps that the Boston bullpen has not one guy that has proven to be consistent this season. I’m rolling with the Over tonight.
*MLB(1u): Angels F5 ML(-135) vs Tigers–6:10 PM CT
Shohei Ohtani will toat the rubber tonight against a Tigers lineup that has scored just 2 runs in their last 2 games. Aside from a blowup outing in Yankee Stadium, Ohtani has been phenomenal on the mound both at home and on the road this season. Comerica Park is significantly more pitcher friendly than Angels Stadium and many others across baseball; pair that with the Tigers poor current form, and I think the stage is set for another great outing from Ohtani tonight. The Angels lineup has managed to put up solid numbers all season despite missing Mike Trout for much of the season. Tigers SP Tarik Skubal is having a respectable season(4.10 ERA, 1.30 WHIP), but a 4.97 FIP and 1.9 HR/9 is not enough to convince me that he’ll fare well tonight. The Angels have played well against teams at or below their level all season long, and I think that trend will continue tonight. Of course, I can only play this game in the F5 because I want no part of either of these bullpens.
