A 3-1, +2.1u Thursday brings my overall MLB record to 138-126-5, +6.82u. I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight looking to start the weekend out with a bang. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Blue Jays F5 ML(-115) @ Yankees–6:05 PM CT
The Yankees are in as poor of current form as they’ve been all season(4-12 in August), and I actually think they have the disadvantage on paper early in this game.
Blue Jays SP Kevin Gausman has struggled in his home ballpark, but away from home, he’s been nothing short of dominant. On the road this year, Guasman holds a 1.83 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and is allowing just 0.3 HR/9. Gausman’s knack for limiting both long balls and walks is why his FIP sits at 2.08; I think he takes advantage of a struggling Yankees lineup tonight.
Yankees SP Jameson Taillon is a very attackable arm that struggles with allowing the deep ball(1.5 HR/9 last year, 1.34 HR/9 this year). While Taillon has actually fared reasonably well at Yankee Stadium, this is the hardest matchup he could’ve drawn. Since June 1st, the Blue Jays rank 1st in the league with a 132 wRC+ vs righties on the road. This lineup is stacked from 1-9 and plated 9 runs in the series opener last night. I like how they match up with Taillon given his consistent struggles with HR’s.
Do not play the Blue Jays over the full game.
*MLB(1u): Tigers ML(+125) vs Angels–6:10 PM CT
I know each of these teams is playing for pride at this point, but this line should be much closer to a “pick”. This Angels lineup has been abysmal in this role all summer; since June 1st, the Angels rank 29th in baseball with a 66 wRC+ vs righties on the road. Is adding Mike Trout back really going to solve all of those issues(especially in his first game back)? We’ve seen countless examples this year of Ohtani and Trout both having marvelous nights at the plate only for the Angels to still lose in blowout fashion. Tigers SP Matt Manning is still early in his career, but the former 1st rounder has found great success (albeit a small sample) at Comerica Park this season. I think he’s more than capable of holding this Halos order in check.
Angels SP Patrick Sandoval is a guy I’ve faded routinely this season; while his 3.42 ERA might look appealing, his 1.49 WHIP is downright disgusting. In addition to allowing right at 1 hit per inning, Sandoval continues to struggle with his control(4.8 BB/9 on the road this year). Facing a lefty at home is the only the role I could ever trust the Tigers’ offense in, but that’s exactly what we’re getting tonight. Since June 1st, the Tigers hold a 117 wRC+ in this role.
These bullpens are both fresh after an off-day and have similar numbers on the year, but I still given the slight edge to the Tigers ‘pen.
*MLB(1u): Cardinals TT OVER 4.5(-140) @ Diamondbacks–8:40 PM CT
When they’re hot, they’re hot. We backed (and cashed) with the Cardinals in each of their 3 games vs the Rockies this week, including in yesterday’s 13-0 win. I will continue to back this team until given a reason not to.
Specifically, I’ve loved the way this offense has fared against left-handed pitching this summer. Since June 1st, the Cardinals rank 3rd in baseball with a 128 wRC+ vs lefties. Tonight, they’ll face DBacks SP Tommy Henry, an arm making just his 4th big league start. Judging off his minor league numbers(1.34 WHIP in AAA this year), Henry is with the big club out of necessity, not because he deserves to be.
Arizona’s bullpen ranks bottom 10 in the league in virtually every category, making them a stricht “play against” unit for me.
