A new month is upon us! I bring in a 116-108-4, +3.86u record into August and will certainly look to add to that over the next 31 days. I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight looking to start us off strong. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Astros -1.5(+120) vs Red Sox–7:10 PM CT
These are two teams moving in opposite directions. The Astros have further established their dominance in the AL West over the past week(won 6 of 7 vs Mariners), while the Red Sox are on the heels of a brutal 8-19 July.
Astros SP Luis Garcia is a very trustworthy arm in his home ballpark. He held a 2.39 ERA and 1.01 WHIP at Minute Maid Park last season, and he sees his WHIP at 1.11 this year. The one struggle for Garcia this year has been allowing the long ball, but the Red Sox are not as imposing as people think. In addition to having key bats like Rafael Devers and Trevor Story on the IL, the Red Sox have posted a measly 97 wRC+ on the road vs righties this year.
Red Sox SP Nathan Eovaldi was the starter on the night the Sox allowed 28 runs to the Blue Jays, but his recent struggles only account for the part of the reason I’ll be against him tonight. This Astros order is extremely familiar with Eovaldi; this projected starting lineup is a combined for 22-for-54 vs Eovaldi, with 7 projected starters holding an OPS at or above 1.000. Combine that with the fact that Eovaldi has historically struggled on the road throughout his time in Boston, and I think the slump continues for him tonight.
The Astros hold a sizable advantage in the later innings with one of the best bullpens in baseball at their disposal. Closer Ryan Pressly won’t be available tonight, but this is a deep bullpen with a plethora of righties that should match up well with the Sox. The Red Sox’s ‘pen, on the other hand, has seen their overall bullpen WHIP climb above 1.30 and is yet another unit that is down multiple key pieces.
*MLB(1u): Padres -1.5(+100) vs Rockies–8:40 PM CT
I’ve wanted to back Padres SP Mike Clevinger for awhile now, and I couldn’t think of a better spot to do so. Clevinger holds a 1.12 WHIP on the season and now has the luxury of facing one of the worst road offenses in the league. Not only do the Rockies hold an atrocious 71 wRC+ vs righties on the road, but they enter this game in poor current form after dropping 4 of 6 on their recent home stand.
Rockies SP Antonio Senzatela is an easy guy to fade considering his 1.74 WHIP and 13.5 H/9. While Senzatela has managed to stay afloat pitching at Coors Field, he has totally crumbled on the road. He holds a 6.57 ERA and 1.78 WHIP away from home this year and held a 1.52 WHIP in this role last year. The Padres’ offense has been incredibly mediocre this season, but I’m hopeful they’ll start to swing the bats better down the stretch of the season. They scored 17 runs in their weekend set vs the Twins and are more than equipped to take advantage tonight.
The Padres hold a massive bullpen edge, bordering the line of having a top 10 ‘pen in the league. Meanwhile, the Rockies bullpen holds bottom 5 numbers across the board.
*MLB(0.77u): Guardians -1.5(+130) vs Diamondbacks–6:10 PM CT
Guardians SP Cal Quantrill might not be the most imposing arm out there, but his home numbers speak for themselves. He held a 2.35 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in Cleveland last year and has backed it up with a 1.11 WHIP at home this season. This is an extremely manageable matchup facing an Arizona lineup that ranks just 23rd in wRC+ vs righties on the road this year. In addition, the DBacks scored just 4 runs in Atlanta this weekend and looked lifeless at the plate all weekend.
Diamondbacks SP Zach Davies is in a tough spot making his first start in over a month after an IL stint. He only resumed mound work a week ago and elected not to go on a rehab assignment. I worry about how that carries over into tonight. Davies has had moderate success this year, but am I really afraid to go against an arm that delivered a 5.78 ERA and 1.60 WHIP a season ago? The Guardians are in sneakily good current form, winning 4 of their last 6(all on the road) and scoring 5 runs/game during that stretch.
The Guardians hold a massive bullpen edge and will have every key arm available tonight. To be quite honest, most teams will have the bullpen advantage when they square off against Arizona; the DBacks border around being a bottom 5 bullpen in the league.
