*MLB(1u): Tigers/Blue Jays OVER 9(-120)–6:07 PM CT
The Blue Jays are an easy offense to back, and that’s especially true considering the quality of pitching(or lack thereof) they’ll face tonight. Tigers SP Tyler Alexander has only recently joined the rotation and has not lasted more than 5.1 IP this season. With a 1.5 HR/9 and 1.31 WHIP, it’s hard to see him matching up well with this Blue Jays order. That creates a serious dilemma for the Tigers because their bullpen has been an absolute wreck. Just yesterday, they blew a 10-2 lead, allowing 11 unanswered runs to the Angels. It wouldn’t shock me if the Blue Jays score double digits themselves, but you can’t ignore the success that the Detroit lineup has had against lefties. Since July 1st, the Tigers are hitting an astounding .322 against left-handed pitching with 21 HR’s mixed in. Blue Jays SP Robbie Ray has had a great season, but his FIP(expected ERA) is almost a full run higher than his ERA, and his left-on-base percentage of 89.9% is unsustainable. The Blue Jays bullpen has also had it’s struggles and is becoming untrustable in their own right. There are too many likely scenarios in which this game goes Over for me to not get involved.
*MLB(1u): Mariners F5 ML(+165) @ Astros–7:10 PM CT
The Astros come into tonight’s game losing 4 of their last 5 and having 0 days rest after returning from a 7 game road trip. Safe to say, the Astros aren’t in great current form entering this important series. The Mariners, on the other hand, have won 7 of their last 8 and are coming off a series sweep in Arlington. They’ll send Yusei Kikuchi to the mound looking to shut down an Astros lineup he’s very familiar with. I was surprised to see that since July 1st, the Astros are hitting just .217 against lefties at Minute Maid Park. I know batting average is not the most important stat, but it’s still a telling figure considering the perception around the Astros lineup. Kikuchi has pitched better on the road than he has at home, and just earlier this season, he tossed a 7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER performance at Minute Maid Park. Astros SP Lance McCullers has phenomenal stuff but continues to struggle with surrendering free passes(4.3 BB/9 this season). The Mariners touched up McCullers for 4 ER in their last meeting with them, and they’re an offense that is gritty and is not going to give at-bats away. I see tremendous value in playing the Mariners F5 at this number. I’m laying off the full game because the M’s had to use their bullpen a ton in their previous series with the Rangers and don’t figure to be at full strength tonight.
*MLB(1u): Giants ML(-117) @ Athletics–8:40 PM CT
While this could be classified as a “toss up” game, the Giants are the better team across the board. This is basically a home game for SFG considering they’ll enjoy the same Bay Area conditions they’ve excelled in all year. Beyond that, they have the edge in a few key areas tonight. Giants SP Alex Wood has pitched well in the Bay Area this season(1.12 WHIP) and will face an A’s lineup that is only mediocre against left-handed pitching. He’s also a veteran who’s accustomed to pitching in meaningful games late in the season. A’s SP James Kaprilean, on the other hand, is a rookie who has shown signs of regression as of late. In his last 3 starts(2 coming against the lowly Rangers), has struck out just 10 batters in 15.2 IP while also allowing 18 hits. The Giants mash right-handed pitching as it is, and it will only help that they’ll get to use a DH as an extra bat in this AL ballpark. The Giants are coming off a day of rest, while the A’s come back home tonight following a 10 game road trip with zero days rest to regroup. Their bullpen was stretched out in their series against the White Sox, putting them at a disadvantage against a Giants bullpen that has the lowest bullpen WHIP in baseball(1.08). The Giants are the play tonight.
