We kept things rolling with a 2-1, +1u Friday. That brings me to 10-4, +7.05u on the week and 140-127-5, +7.82u on the season. I’m sticking with 3 plays for today looking to keep us on the right side. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Phillies GM1 F5 -0.5(-115) vs Mets–12:05 PM CT
Phillies SP Zack Wheeler got hit around by the Mets in Queens last weekend, but he now returns home for a great bounce back opportunity. At home this year, Wheeler holds a 1.57 ERA and 0.84 WHIP; considering he held a 0.87 WHIP at Citizens Bank Park last year, this is absolutely a role I can trust him in. While the Mets offense has been solid in this role, they have proven this week that they still have a tough time stepping up in competition on the road.
Mets SP Trevor Williams is making a spot start today and doesn’t figure into this Mets rotation on a consistent basis. While his overall numbers are solid, he has struggled on the road(4.18 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 1.6 HR/9). This Phillies offense is very inconsistent(to put it mildly), but they have actually been quite good in this role throughout the summer. Since June 1st, the Phils hold a 123 wRC+ vs righties in their home ballpark.
*MLB(1u): Rays -1.5(+110) vs Royals–3:10 PM CT
Rays SP Drew Rasmussen flirted with a perfect game in his last start, but that has little to do with why I’m backing him. In addition to holding sub-3.00 ERA on the year, Rasmussen has been absolutely lights out at the Trop; he carries a 1.87 ERA and 0.77 WHIP at home this year. Why would I be afraid to play against a Royals lineup that has plated just 4 runs across their last 4 games? After all, they hold just an 86 wRC+ in this role since June 1st.
Royals SP Kris Bubic has improved throughout the year, but given how poor he started, that’s not saying much. Bubic(5.11 ERA, 1.60 WHIP) is allowing well over 1 hit per inning and has yielded nearly 2 HR/9 on the road over the past two seasons. I’ve been very critical of this Rays offense this season, but this is the one role they’ve found consistent success in. Since June 1st, the Rays hold a 133 wRC+ vs lefties at the Trop.
A big part of this handicap is the bullpen disparity. The Royals hold far-and-away the worst bullpen numbers in baseball, while the Rays have a borderline-top 5 bullpen in the game. When you combine this clear mismatch with the rest of this handicap, it’s indefensible that we’re being offered plus-money here.
*MLB(1u): Cardinals TT OVER 4.5(-125) @ Diamondbacks–7:10 PM CT
We’re officially on “auto-bet” mode with the Cardinals after cashing with them each of the past 4 days. This is a team we’ve seen well all year(+12.21u), so I see no reason to hop off now.
St. Louis is scoring over 5.5 runs/game here in the month of August and has been consistently good against left-handed pitching all summer. DBacks SP Madison Bumgarner is a shell of his former self, bringing a 4.37 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. His strikeouts are down, his hits are up, but most of all, Bumgarner is in especially bad current form entering tonight; he has allowed 19 ER over his last 4 starts.
As we saw last night, the DBacks bullpen is completely unreliable and should be faded into oblivion.
