A 2-1, +0.95u Saturday brings me to 12-5, +7.95u on the week and 142-128-5, +8.77u on the season. I’m rolling with a pair of plays for today looking to close the weekend out strong. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Cardinals ML(-125) @ Diamondbacks–3:10 PM CT
We have cashed with the Cardinals each of the past 5 days, and I’m +13.21u on my action in Cardinals’ games this season. I will continue to back them until given a reason not to.
Cardinals SP Jose Quintana has enjoyed a nice bounce back season, and he’s in very good current form(5 ER across his last 5 starts). Quintana is limiting HR’s at the best rate since his 2014 season, allowing just 0.6 HR/9 this season. The Diamondbacks are a bit of a wild card offense, and they’ve actually handled left-handed pitching nicely in their home ballpark. However, it is a lineup that has seen its slugging diminish throughout the course of the summer and is not in particularly great current form.
The Cardinals offense is RED HOT(as we all know). They scored 16 runs last night, 13 runs on Thursday, and throughout the course of August, they are averaging nearly 6.5 runs/game. DBacks SP Merrill Kelly holds a sub-3.00 ERA on the year, but he is not an overpowering arm. We’d be on the Cardinals regardless, but I actually think this could be a more favorable matchup than the price would let on.
I felt comfortable playing this over the full game because the Cardinals hold a sizable advantage in the later innings. The Cards’ bullpen holds a 0.12 point advantage in the WHIP category, and I think that becomes an even wider gap when you compare the late-inning arms.
Let’s make it 6 straight!
*MLB(1u): Orioles ML(-105) vs Red Sox–6:10 PM CT
The Red Sox should not be a team you’re afraid to play against. This offense has been horrific throughout the course of the summer; here in the month of August, they hold a measly 89 wRC+ vs right-handed pitching. Orioles SP Dean Kremer’s fly-ball nature will get him in trouble on the road in his tougher matchups, but I don’t worry much about that against the middling lineup.
Red Sox SP Nick Pivetta is truly a hit-or-miss arm. He had a stretch earlier this summer where he looked like an All-Star, but he’s far too inconsistent to trust in a big spot like this. His 1.29 WHIP is pretty reflective of that. This is also a much tougher matchup than people will assume. Since June 1st, the Orioles hold a 109 wRC+ vs right-handed pitching at home; since August 1st, that jumps all the way up to 136. The Orioles have been in a groove for quite awhile now.
A big part of this play is the bullpen discrepancy. While the Orioles did trade away Jorge Lopez at the Deadline, they still have a far better bullpen than Boston; they bring a 0.14 point advantage in the WHIP category into tonight’s game.
These are two teams going in opposite directions. I’d rather be on the young team that’s playing with their hair of fire in a “nothing to lose” spot.
