A 2-0, +2u Sunday capped off a 14-5, +9.95u week and brings my overall MLB record to 144-128-5, +10.77u. I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight looking to start the new week off strong. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Mets F5 -0.5(-110) @ Yankees–6:05 PM CT
If I’m not priced out of backing Mets SP Max Scherzer, I’ll probably be on him. Scherzer has arguably been the best pitcher in baseball over the last decade, delivering a sub-1.00 WHIP in 7 of his last 10 seasons. Additionally, Mad Max is allowing a career low 0.66 HR/9 this season. I am not afraid to play against the Yankees right now considering they have been shut out in 3 of their last 8 games and are just 5-14 in the month of August. Even over a larger sample, a 112 wRC+ vs righties at home since June 1st is relatively unimpressive.
The Mets bring a ton of momentum into tonight’s game after another comeback victory against the Phillies yesterday, a game in which they plated 10 runs. They’ll get a favorable matchup facing off with Domingo German. German held an ERA north of 5.00 at Yankee Stadium last year and has shown little-to-nothing that inspires confidence this year. The Mets hold a 117 wRC+ vs righties away from home since June 1st and are a professional lineup from 1-9.
I would heavily advise to isolate the SP matchup and avoid any shenanigans in the later innings.
*MLB(1u): Rays -1.5(+105) vs Angels–6:10 PM CT
This is a clear mismatch that not many people will give credence to. Since June 1st, the Rays rank 5th in baseball with a 140 wRC+ vs lefties in their home ballpark. In that same stretch, the Angels have amassed a league worst 60 wRC+ vs lefties away from their home park and have been terrible in this role all year. To make matters worse, Shohei Ohtani is unlikely to play tonight due to a stomach bug, making this weak lineup even weaker.
Rays SP Jeffrey Springs has been incredibly reliable at the Trop this year, bringing a 2.27 ERA and 1.04 WHIP at home into tonight’s start. Angels SP Tucker Davidson holds a 1.74 WHIP on the year and has walked an astounding 6.75 batters per 9 innings throughout his career.
The Rays will also hold a sizable bullpen edge in the later innings. While Brooks Raley and Peter Fairbanks figure to be unavailable, the Rays pen(5th in bullpen WHIP) is a very deep unit. The Angels bullpen is mediocre at best and is sure to be unreliable over the last month of the season.
We should not be getting this at plus-money.
*MLB(1u): Cardinals TT OVER 4.5(-110) @ Cubs–7:05 PM CT
We have cashed with the Cardinals 6(!) straight days and are now +14.21u on our action in Cardinals games this year. With how red hot this team is, I am on “auto bet” mode with them until given a reason not to be.
Over their current 7 game win streak, the Red Birds are averaging 8 runs/game. I have been able to trust them against left-handed pitching all year, and that’s exactly the spot they find themselves in tonight. Cubs SP Drew Smyly is an adequate Major League starter, but he is certainly attackable. Smyly is giving up over 1 hit per inning this year, holds a mediocre 1.25 WHIP, and is allowing 1.6 HR/9 at Wrigley Field this season. The Cubs traded away most(if not all) of their valuable relievers and surely will finish with a bottom 10 bullpen in the league.
I know we’ve had success backing Cardinals SP Jordan Montgomery since he joined the club a few weeks ago, but this is his first road start as a Red Bird. Given his career inconsistencies on the road, I feel much better isolating this Cardinals offense at a very reasonable number and price.
