*MLB(1u): Royals F5 TT OVER 1.5(-115) @ Astros–7:10 PM CT
Unlike other teams who find themselves outside of playoff contention, the Royals seem to be playing with a lot of effort in hopes of building towards next season. They took 3 out of 4 from the Astros just last week and enter tonight’s matchup riding high off a 3 game sweep against the Cubs. In that 7 game span, the offense is averaging 5 runs/game, meaning they should feel good entering tonight’s matchup with Zack Greinke. The simple reality is that Greinke has pitched subpar baseball at home this season; in 13 starts at Minute Maid Park this season, Greinke holds a 4.58 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 1.6 HR/9. His FIP is also nearly a full run higher than his ERA, meaning his 3.43 ERA is a bit deceiving. I don’t think 2 runs through the first 5 innings is too much to ask from a streaking Royals team, and with rookie Daniel Lynch taking the hill, the Royals could need a heavy offensive performance to hang with the Astros tonight. Greinke has a large enough sample size at home where I feel comfortable going against him tonight.
