My MLB record sits at 144-132-5, +6.42u. I’m rolling with 3 plays for today looking to take some momentum into the weekend. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Guardians/Mariners UNDER 8(-115)– 3:10 PM CT
Mariners SP Marco Gonzales has had anything but a career-best year, but this is a spot where I believe he can command this game from start to finish. The soft-throwing lefty has pitched much better at home this year, and he’ll face a Guardians lineup that holds just an 85 wRC+ vs lefties since June 1st. The Guardians have also hit the 2nd fewest HR’s in all of baseball; I believe Gonzalez’s “pitch to contact” nature will play nicely against this Cleveland lineup.
Guardians SP Triston McKenzie has had breakout 2022 season, bringing a sub-1.00 WHIP into this afternoon’s start. The young righty is no stranger to pitching on the road(14 of his 22 starts on the road this year), and this sets up as a favorable matchup. Since June 1st, the Mariners hold just an 89 wRC+ vs righties in their home ballpark. Routinely, they have failed to step up in competition well in their tougher matchups. McKenzie’s one achilles heel is that he gives up more HR’s than you’d like, but the righty is also giving up just 6.4 hits per 9 innings.
These are 2 of the top 5 bullpens in the game. Each is deep, and aside from Paul Sewald of the Mariners, every key reliever will be available for each of these squad’s this afternoon.
*MLB(1u): Astros -1.5(+115) vs Twins–7:10 PM CT
Astros SP Luis Garcia has uncharacteristically struggled with allowing HR’s at Minute Maid Park this year, but he’s still a trustworthy arm in this role. Garcia held a 2.39 ERA and 1.01 WHIP at home last year, and aside from the HR’s, his other numbers(K/9, BB/9) are seemingly identical to last year. He gets the luxury of facing a Twins lineup that is in abysmal current form; they have scored just 9 runs over this 5 game losing streak. Rocco Baldelli can have as many closed-door meetings as he wants, but the fact is his team is sliding.
Twins SP Chris Archer is an unreliable starter, specifically on the road. He’s walking nearly 5.5 batters per 9 innings and allowing 1.6 HR/9 in his road starts this year. Archer is also usually limited to 2 turns through the order, meaning he’ll hand over the reigns to a bullpen that ranks just 17th in bullpen WHIP this season. The Astros have seen righties well at home this summer(127 wRC+ at home since June 1st) and are plenty capable of taking advantage tonight.
Dusty Baker has managed his bullpen well in this series, as only Bryan Abreu figures to be unavailable tonight. This is a deep unit that holds a 3.01 ERA on the year; I think they’ll have a sizable advantage over Minnesota’s pen in the later innings.
*MLB(0.8u): Rays -1.5(+125) vs Angels–12:10 PM CT
Rays SP Drew Rasmussen has been nothing short of incredible at the Trop this year(1.99 ERA, 0.75 WHIP). Today, he gets the luxury of facing an Angels lineup that holds an abysmal 61 wRC+ on the road vs righties since June 1st. The Halos are in particularly bad current form, having lost 8 of their last 9 and scoring just 9 runs over their last 6 games.
Angels SP Patrick Sandoval is the exact type of arm I’m looking to fade. His 3.14 ERA is quite deceiving considering he holds a 1.40 WHIP. Sandoval continually gets away with his control issues, but that’s something these numbers can’t be sustained over a full season. The Rays offense has not treated us well this year, but they have been undeniably good in this role. Since June 1st, Tampa holds a 142 wRC+ at home vs left-handed pitching. They’ve also won 6 of their last 7 games.
The Rays have a top 5 bullpen in the league, while LAA’s ‘pen can be described best as “boom-or-bust”. While the Rays used a lot of arms in last night’s win, none of those guys threw enough to where I think they’ll be unavailable this afternoon.
