A 1-2, -1.35u Friday brings my overall MLB record to 148-134-5, +8.22u. In addition to my Week 0 CFB Best Bet, I’ll be rolling with 2 MLB plays for tonight. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Rangers TT OVER 3.5(-130) vs Tigers– 6:05 PM CT
The market still hasn’t caught up to the fact that the Rangers have been ELITE against left-handed pitching this summer. Since June 1st, the Rangers hold (by far) the highest wRC+ vs lefties in their home ballpark(171). Now, they’ll face somewhat of a lame duck in Tigers SP Eduardo Rodriguez. ERod’s 1.34 WHIP is a pretty accurate depiction of his inconsistency. In addition, this is just his 2nd start back off of the IL in what’s been an injury riddled season. His K/BB ratio has been cut in half from where it was last year, and he’s simply not an arm I’m afraid to go against.
The Tigers bullpen has been a pleasant surprise this year, but 3.5 over the full game is simply the wrong number. In addition to the larger sample size, the Rangers have scored 23 runs over their past 2 games and are absolutely a lineup I want to back at the moment.
*MLB(1u): Twins F5 -0.5(+105) vs Giants–6:15 PM CT
There’s a strong possibility this game gets postponed, but if the weather passes I think we’re getting a lot of value here.
Twins SP Sonny Gray has been a steady arm for the Twins this year, bringing a 3.10 ERA and 1.12 WHIP into tonight’s start. Allowing less than 1 HR/9 this year, I think Gray is in for a more favorable matchup than people would think. This Giants lineup has underperformed all season; since June 1st, they hold a measly 86 wRC+ vs righties on the road. They were shut out last night and are still without a key middle-of-the-order bat in Brandon Belt. While I do think this team could have one more run in them, I don’t see this being the matchup they reverse course.
Giants SP Alex Cobb is the perfect example of why you have to look at home/road splits. While Cobb has fared great at Oracle Park this year, he’s shown major red flags on the road each of the past 2 seasons. This season, Cobb holds a 5.65 ERA and 1.49 WHIP away from home and has seen his K numbers drop drastically. The Twins were really skidding at the plate on their recent road trip, but they returned back home last night and immediately plated 9 runs. In addition, they’ve been steady in this role over the course of the summer(115 wRC+ vs righties at home since June 1st).
There’s a lot of variance in the later innings of this matchup given the “boom-or-bust” nature of each of these bullpens. I will isolate the matchup I feel best about and keep this a F5 play.
