A 1-2, -0.77u start to the month brings my overall MLB record to 117-110-4, +3.09u. I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight looking to break out. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Mets TT OVER 5.5(+105) @ Nationals–6:05 PM CT
The Mets have been a steady lineup all year(114 wRC+ vs RHP), but they have taken it to a new level with the bats here recently. Currently on a 7 game win streak, the Mets are averaging over 6 runs/game during this stretch and have done serious damage against arms like Joe Musgrove, Sandy Alcantara, and Pablo Lopez. They expectedly got after Patrick Corbin last night and will get another favorable matchup here tonight.
Nationals SP Cory Abbott is not a major league caliber arm, holding a career 5.91 ERA and 1.59 WHIP entering tonight’s start. Not only has he struggled with the long ball in the bigs, but that seems to be his achilles heel in the minors; he allowed 1.88 HR/9 in Triple-A last year and 1.28 HR/9 in AAA this year. I don’t like how his fly-ball nature is going to play in these conditions. Abbott is not expected to go deep in this game, meaning Davey Martinez will be relying on a tired bullpen that ranks bottom 10 in the league across the board. We’ve made quite a bit of cheddar going against this ‘pen this year, and I certainly don’t mind going against them again tonight.
*MLB(1u): Phillies F5 TT OVER 1.5(-115) @ Braves–6:20 PM CT
When you see a 1.5 with this price, you assume it’s tagged on a bottom-barrel lineup. While the Phillies have been inconsistent at the plate this year, this is also a group that can do some serious damage. The Phils enter tonight on a 5 game win streak and have scored just under 6 runs/game during this stretch.
Braves SP Spencer Strider is nasty, but I hate this spot for him considering Strider faced this Phillies lineup just last week. As you all know, I’ve loved fading pitchers in this spot all year, and I think that applies even more to tonight. By nature of making just 11 starts at the big league level, this is the first time Strider has had to deal with this dreadful spot; I’m not going to expect him to adjust well tonight. Again, a bloop-and-a-blast gets this one through.
*MLB(1u): Cubs TT UNDER 3.5(-115) @ Cardinals–6:45 PM CT
Cardinals SP Adam Wainwright has been money at home throughout his career, and that’s even remained true this deep in his career. Wainwright holds a 2.01 ERA and 1.08 WHIP at Busch Stadium this year and held a 1.01 WHIP in this role last season.
The Cubs lineup has been subpar vs righties on the road this year(94 wRC+) and is not a unit I want my money on, ESPECIALLY today. Their centerpiece, Wilson Contreras, is likely to be dealt before this afternoon’s deadline, and the Cubs might also move their All Star OF Ian Happ. This is a team that’s looked lifeless at times as of late, so I have no hesitation trusting Wainwright in his main role.
The Cardinals’ bullpen has been somewhat boom-or-bust this season, but given Wainwright’s knack for going deep in games, I do feel comfortable trusting their back-end arms. St. Louis also had an off day yesterday, meaning this unit will be fresh entering tonight.
