Sitting at 119-113-4, +1.94u this MLB season, I’m looking to break out this weekend. I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight looking to do just that. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Guardians TT UNDER 3.5(-135) vs Astros–6:10 PM CT
Astros SP Framber Valdez is a unique case in that he excels far more on the road than he does at home; Valdez holds a beastly 2.04 ERA and 0.98 WHIP away from Minute Maid Park. In addition, Valdez’s astounding 6:1 groundball-flyball rate virtually guarantees he’s not a big threat to give up HR’s. This is a very manageable facing off with a Guardians offense that holds just a 83 wRC+ vs lefties in their home ballpark this season. We saw the Guardians put up a goose egg in last night’s game, and quite frankly, I don’t like the way they step up in competition offensively.
Houston also has one of the best bullpens in baseball, ranking 1st in ERA and 2nd in bullpen WHIP this year. The addition of Will Smith at the deadline only added to the strength of this unit, and every arm figures to be available for tonight.
*MLB(1u): Red Sox/Royals F5 UNDER 5(-110)–7:10 PM CT
Royals SP Zack Greinke has simply been marvelous at home this year, bringing in a 1.65 ERA and 0.98 at Kauffman Stadium into tonight’s start. It’s being painted as if the Red Sox’s offensive woes just started in the month of July; that’s simply not the case. Throughout this season, the Sox hold an unimpressive 93 wRC+ vs right-handed pitching away from Fenway Park. This is still a lineup with key bats on the IL(mainly Trevor Story), and while they did add some above average pieces at the deadline, I don’t see them posing much of a threat off of Greinke tonight.
Red Sox SP Josh Winckowski has poor overall numbers this season, but he has found success pitching on the road so far in his young career(3.12 ERA, 1.15 WHIP in 3 road starts against Rays, Cubs, Guardians). This is perhaps his easiest road matchup to date facing off with a Royals lineup that has mustered together a poor 85 wRC+ at home vs righties this season. Considering they traded away their two most reliable bats(Merrifield and Benentendi), I don’t expect the Royals to make significant strides offensively over the next 2 months.
*MLB(1u): Mariners -1.5(+115) vs Angels–9:10 PM CT
Mariners SP Robbie Ray has gotten pounded by the Astros in each of his past 2 starts, but he returns home tonight in a clear bounce back spot. The Angels have been one of the worst offenses in the league throughout the summer and are still without Mike Trout. Even when they were staying afloat, they have struggled in this role all season(82 wRC+ vs lefties on the road). Considering Ray has managed a sub-3.00 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP at T-Mobile Park this year, this figures to be a start that he can control from start to finish.
Angels SP Patrick Sandoval’s 3.61 ERA is incredibly deceiving; his 1.48 WHIP is much more reflective of the caliber of arm he truly is. In addition to allowing over 1 hit per inning, Sandoval is also walking over 4 batters per 9 innings. This is a sneakily tough matchup facing off with a Mariners offense that holds a very good 120 wRC+ at home vs lefties. In addition, the Mariners were able to put up 17 runs in their 3 game set at Yankee Stadium earlier this week. Even with some key pieces still hurt, I like how the Mariners match up with this overvalued lefty arm.
The Mariners also hold a pretty sizeable advantage in the later innings. Seattle’s bullpen ranks T-2nd in bullpen WHIP this year and are coming off the heels of an off day. The Angels’ pen has been mediocre at best, and considering they traded away their closer, I wouldn’t be surprised if those numbers worsen throughout the rest of the way.
