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Milwaukee at Sacramento +2 (O/U 244.5) 10:00pm ET
The high flying, high scoring Sacramento Kings take on arguably the #1 team in basketball Monday night. Averaging 132 points a game in their L9 and have not been held to under 122 points in almost three weeks. They have won 8 of their last 9 and 4 out of 5 at home.
Now taking on the Bucks is a tough task, but I believe they landed them at the best moment. With Milwaukee playing their 4th road game in their L5, and have traveled quite a bit since March 1st. Now flip the script. When Sacramento arrived home on March 1st, they played only 5 games and made one round of traveling, that was too Phoenix. Winning 4 of those 5, while beating the Clippers, the Knicks and the Suns. Ironically though, they have played 12 of their last 19 away from home.
The Kings have shot 53% in their L5 and 39% from downtown. This will need to keep up in order to beat Milwaukee, luckily for them the Bucks have struggled defending the 3 recently. Giving up 38% in their L5, but more importantly opponents staying in games with the way of the 3. The Kings get to the line and do it often, averaging 29 free throw attempts a game, as well as committing only 11 turnovers a game in their L5. Both of these are important when fatigue sets in late in this game for Milwaukee. If you wanted to find a weakness on the Bucks, they average 15 turnovers in their L5. Meaning extra possessions for Sacramento and getting bonus stops.
Backing Sacramento as dogs and on 1 day’s rest has been a recipe for success. They’re 26-11-1 ATS this season on 1-DR, 4-0 ATS in their L4. As dogs they have won and covered in 5 of their last 6. As good as Milwaukee is, recently they’re 1-4 ATS their L5 vs teams over .500, as well as 6-10-1 ATS overall for the season playing teams over .500 on the road. As opposed to 5-0 ATS vs teams under .500 their L5.
I’m on Sac town tonight with a strong UNIT UPGRADE!
Kings +2 (DraftKings -110) 1.75 units
Let’s get this in the winner’s circle to kick off March Madness week!
