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Boston-Minnesota under 8.5 (DraftKings -105) risk 1.31u to win 1.25u
Let’s dive into why I like the under for tonight’s match-up between the Red Sox and Twins in Minnesota. For starters, the game being in Minnesota is critical for tonight’s play. Boston has been a strong over play at Fenway being 24-15 to the over. While only hovering around .500 on the road. They were 8-4 to the under going into this series, until they blitzed Pablo Lopez last night for 4 runs, eventually scoring 9. The Twins on the other hand are averaging 3 runs per game in their last 6 games, but the o/u splitting 3-3 in the 6 due to some rough pitching. Bailey Ober, the under machine takes the mound tonight for the Twins and looks to cool off the Red Sox bats. In the last 15 games Ober has started, the under is 15-0 going back to last season, while being 10-0 in 2023! He’s sporting a 2.65 ERA this season and a 1.88 ERA/0.88 WHIP at night in 2023. The key to Bailey is to get him out of the 1st inning. He has a gaudy 5.40 ERA in inning #1 this season, but cools off quickly after that, settling into the game. Look to add a live bet on the under tonight after the 1st inning commences. Kutter Crawford is on the bump for Boston and is quietly having a successful year, but after a few bad starts his stats and ERA are completely misguided. His exit velocity is an astounding 86.1, ranking him at the tops of the majors in this category. His chase rate ranks almost 1st in baseball, and hard-hit balls are connecting at 33.3% also ranking him near the top. With an expected batting average of .222. He doesn’t usually go more than 4 innings on average, but the Sox pen have a superb ERA of 1.75 in their last 10. Back the under tonight!
