He is one of the most well known sports bettors and handicappers in the business. You see him sharing his plunder of winners every Saturday on during the football season on ESPN’s College Gameday. You can follow him on twitter @chrisfallica
The Quick Lane Bowl, Detroit MI – Minnesota vs Georgia Tech -6 O/U 60
- I took a nibble on Minnesota when this got to +6.5
- The Gophers will be without their star Offensive Tackle Donnell Green and Linebacker Rodney Smith due to NFL draft hold out.
- Minnesota had a pretty hard schedule but finished the season very well winning 3 of their last 5 big 10 games against Indiana, Purdue and Wisconsin. They also played well against Northwestern if it wasn’t for those 3 turnovers, it may have been a different game.
- Both teams give up 6 yards per play but Minnesota had the harder schedule
- Minnesota had 3 weeks to practice for the option
- I tend to think from the eye test that Minnesota is more vulnerable to the pass than the run.
- Is Paul Johnson’s departure a good thing for this bowl or could it be a bad thing?
Kiev: Gophers +6.5 or +6
Chris: No Play
The Pinstripe Bowl, New York, NY – Wisconsin vs Miami -3.0 O/U 48
- Very disappointing teams
- Horibrook out
- Jack Cohen from New York
- Wisconsin beat this team last year with pretty much the same offense
- Miami only allows 4.2 Yards per play to Wisconsin’s 5.6
- Wisconsin gets 6.3 yards per play over Miami’s 5.2
- Wisconsin is banged up on defense with Freshman on the D line and no Olive Sagapolu at Nose Tackle
- Miami’s defense average’s 5.5 yards per attempt against the pass but they haven’t really played a good passing team since week 1 against LSU
- Wisconsin had the harder schedule.
- If Wisconsin is going to win, it won’t be done running the football, it will have to be through the air with Hornibrook
- Miami wins by 2 in a revenge spot
Kiev: Lean to Wisconsin +3.5 small
Chris: Lean to Wisconsin +3.5
The Peach Bowl, Atlanta Georgia – Michigan vs Florida +7.5 O/U 51
- Michigan will be without DT Rashan Gary and LB Devin Bush, Karon Higdon
- Both teams equal on yards per play on offense at 6.2
- Michigan much better on Defense yards per play allowing 4.3 to Florida’s 5.1
- Michigan was embarrassed the last game that they played. Something should get fixed.
- Felipe Franks played some good football this year at 23-5 TD to interception ratio completing 58% of his passes
- Shea Patterson completed 64% of his passes at a 21-5 TD to interception ratio
- Most Power ratings has Michigan by 8.5 points.
- Michigan was the only big 10 team to lose last year and I think they need to prove they can get it done
Kiev: Michigan -6 to -6.5
Chris: Florida +7.5
The Outback Bowl, Tampa Florida – Mississippi State vs Iowa +7 O/U 44
- Dual Action sharp and public on Mississippi State bringing this spread from -5 to -7
- Iowa is without their TE Noah Fant cause he is holding out for the draft. They also have had some banged up TEs this year but I would be hard pressed to think that their isn’t another 6’7 corn fed Hawkeye kid that that catch the ball and run a little bit in this state.
- Both these teams are better than what they showed during the regular season. No huge wins and had opportunities but fizzed out at the end.
- Both teams have top 6 defenses both allowing less than 300 yards per game with mediocre offenses
- Both teams had hard schedules
- Kirk Ferentz had more experience then Joe Moorhead
- Ran the numbers and I have Mississippi state winning 23 to 20.5 so this is a play for me.
- This low total tells me how to bet this game
Kiev: Iowa +7 and ML
Chris: Mississippi State -7
The Alamo Bowl, San Antonio TX – Iowa State vs Washington State -3.5 O/U 55
- Remember the Alamo? Well I don’t remember the Alamo, but I do remember that bad beat in the Alamo Bowl in 2016 when TCU was down 31-0 at halftime when Gary Patterson Changed his cloths and came back to win the game 47-41 without QB Trevone Boykin and Josh Doctson.
- Mike Leach is 1-7 in bowl games while Matt Campbell is 2-2 since 2005
- Low total of 55 for a Washington State team
- Iowa State is used to playing high flying offenses in the big 12 like Oklahoma, West Virginia who they beat and Texas Tech who they beat straight up
- Having a defense allowing 5.1 yards per play is unheard of in the Big 12
- The Sharp money agrees with me.
Kiev: Iowa State +4.5 and the Money Line
Chris: Iowa State +4.5 and the Money Line
The Taxslayer Bowl, Jacksonville Florida – Texas A&M vs NC State +6.5 O/U 58.5
- These Teams seem pretty similar here too me
- Both teams won their last 3 games
- Both teams like to throw the ball
- Both teams around 6.2 yards per play
- NC State gives up 5.7 yards per play and Texas A&M gives up 5.9
- The Aggies Run the ball better at 4.9 yards per rush to the Wolfpack’s 3.9
- Jimbo Fisher is 5-3 ATS in bowl games while Dave Doeren is 4-1
- Texas A & M had a way harder schedule then NC State ranking 4th on Sagarin to NC State’s 69
- My algorithm has this game closer to a pickem even after adjusting for strength of schedule
- Texas A&M lacks some important efficiencies
- NC State is better on 3rd down at 50% to the Aggie’s 40%
- NC State is 87% at field goal percentage to A&M’s 70%
- I have Texas A&M winning 29.5-28.5
Kiev: Lean NC State +6.5 or small at +7.5
Chris: No Play
The Sugar Bowl, New Orleans LA – Texas vs Georgia -13 O/U 58
- We all know who Georgia is
- I have them one of the best 4 teams in college football
- What is Georgia’s motivation?
- Most Power ratings has Georgia by 11 to 14 points
- Sam Ellinger is a winner
- Texas plays up or down to their competition
- I have this game Georgia 35-23 but no lean on the side due to motivational questions
Kiev: Lean over 58
Chris: Wait to see Georgia’s motivation and live bet
The Fiesta bowl, Glendale Arizona – UCF vs LSU -7.5 O/U 55.5
- Too hard to cap this especially with McKenzie Milton out for Central Florida
- One would think that LSU should be able to just run the ball year with UCF allowing 4.8 Yards per rush on defense in the AAC
- What is LSU’s Motivation here? Do they want to stop the narrative that UCF should be in the playoffs?
Kiev: NO PLAY as of yet
Chris: LSU -7.5
The Cotton Bowl, Arlington Texas – Clemson vs Notre Dame +13 O/U 55
- I look at Notre Dame as the ACC team that didn’t have to play Clemson or NC State for that fact
- Both teams had easy schedules
- Clemson leads the League in second half points
- From a pure numbers and algorithm standpoint, I have Clemson winning 28-22
- From a power ratings I have Clemson by 12
- Clemson is weaker against the pass as we saw against Texas A&M, Syracuse and NC State put up 35 points
- Notre Dame is a good passing team with Ian Book at the helm
Kiev: Going to bet this game like I bet the Penn State/Ohio State games. Taking Notre Dame in the First Half and Clemson in the Second
Chris: Clemson -13
The Orange Bowl, Miami Florida – Alabama vs Oklahoma +14 O/U 79.5
- Oklahoma’s defense Ranks 95th in points allowed at 32.5 and 102 in yards per play at 6.0. Alabama is top 7 in both categories allowing only 14.8 points per game and 4.5 yards per play
- Oklahoma’s offense ranks first in points per game at 49.5 and yards per play at 8.7 but Alabama ranks second in both of those areas 48 points per game and 7.9 yards per play in a much tougher division but easier non conference schedule.
- A big factor in this game is how tight will this game be called by the officials. I could see this game being close or I can see Alabama blowing them out.
- I think Saben will look to the Oklahoma vs Army game here and play keep away.
Kiev: Under 79.5 points and especially if Bama is leading at the half by double digits
Chris: Alabama -13
