Belmont Oaks & Derby Preview & Picks – July 9th, 2022

July 9, 2022

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We have some great races this Saturday for the beginning legs of the Caesars Turf Triple Series, featuring the $1 million Caesars Belmont Derby Invitational Stakes (G1T) and the $700,000 Belmont Oaks Invitational Stakes (G1T). Both races are a Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” event. We have a ton of European entries who will look to try their luck in the States. I’ll breakdown both races and try and pick some winners.

Race Information:

Track: Belmont Park (Elmont, NY, USA)
Event Grade: Grade I
Race Name: Belmont Oaks Invitational Stakes
Race: 7
Post Time: 4:06 PM ET
Length: 1 1/4 Miles (10 Furlongs)
Purse: $700,000
Division: Filly | Three Years Old
Surface: Inner Turf
Wagers: Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 (7-9), Grand Slam (7-10), Late Pick 5 (.50) (7-11), Double

Weather:

Rain showers early with overcast skies later in the day. High 78F. Winds ENE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50%. Based off this report, I’m expecting track conditions are listed as “good”.

TV Schedule:

FS2 – 1:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET

Field:

Post Position	Horse	ML Odds
1	McKulick (GB)	6-1
2	Cairo Memories	12-1
3	Haughty	5-1
4	With The Moonlight (IRE)	6-1
5	Consumer Spending	5-1
6	New Year’s Eve	6-1
7	Hot Queen (FR)	20-1
8	Know Thyself (IRE)	20-1
9	Agartha (IRE)	10-1
10	Concert Hall (IRE)	3-1

Horse Preview:

McKulick (GB)

Owner: Klaravich Stables, Inc
Trainer: Chad C Brown
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Career Statistics: (4) 1-2-1
2022 Statistics: (2) 0-2-0
Belmont Statistics: (1) 0-0-1

McKulick has only four starts in her career but has yet to finish outside the money in any of them. In her last race, she finished 2nd in the G3 Regret Stakes. Before that, she ran 2nd again in the G2 Edgewood Stakes and 3rd in the G2 Miss Grillo Stakes. Her lone win was back in her first start in a MSW. In all four races, she’s run at a distance of 1 1/16 but will add a few furlongs in the Belmont Oaks. She’s a closer that has seemed to run out of room in her past few races so the distance should suit her well. The only issue is that she’s never faced this level of competition as this will be her first G1 Stakes race. Irad Ortiz Jr. rode her in her first two starts and will get the reigns back for the Oaks.

Cairo Memories

Owner: David A. Bernsen, LLC and Schroeder Farms LLC
Trainer: Robert B Hess, Jr
Jockey: Mike E Smith
Career Statistics: (7) 4-1-0
2022 Statistics: (3) 2-0-0
Belmont Statistics: (0) 0-0-0

Cairo Memories has won both of her last two races including the G3 Honeymoon Stakes and G3 Providencia Stakes. She’s raced in two G1 Stakes before finishing 2nd (Starlet Stakes) and 9th (Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf). The increased distance in her past few races has seemed to suit her well and she’ll add a few lengths in this race. Mike E Smith has been on her in the past three races so he should be very familiar with her running style.

Haughty

Owner: Bradley Thoroughbreds, Belmar Racing and Breeding, LLC, Cambron Equine,
LLC and Team Hanley
Trainer: Chad C Brown
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Career Statistics: (4) 2-0-2
2022 Statistics: (1) 1-0-0
Belmont Statistics: (0) 0-0-0

* If you’re looking at the Equibase PP, she actually ran 3rd in her debut. It’s a misprint.

Haughty has only raced once this year which came last month where she handily won the Penn Oaks at Penn National. In the race prior, she ran 3rd in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. She’s handled the additional distance well before, so I expect her to do the same here. Flavien Prat was on her in the last race so he’ll retain the reigns. Side note, her last race was in sloppy conditions and with the morning rain, she may face similar conditions.

With The Moonlight (IRE)

Owner: Godolphin, LLC
Trainer: Charles Appleby
Jockey: Lanfranco Dettor
Career Statistics: (6) 3-0-1
2022 Statistics: (2) 1-0-0
Belmont Statistics: (0) 0-0-0

With the Moonlight will be making her debut in the states. She enters the Oaks off an 11th place finish in the G1 Cazoo Oaks. To be fair, this race was an outlier as she looked winded so we’ll she how she responds a little over a month later. Prior to that outing, she won three of her four last starts. Lanfranco Dettor will ride With The Moonlight for the first time.

Consumer Spending

Owner: Klaravich Stables, Inc
Trainer: Chad C Brown
Jockey: Manuel Franco
Career Statistics: (6) 4-1-0
2022 Statistics: (2) 2-0-0
Belmont Statistics: (1) 1-0-0

Consumer Spending has won four of her six starts. In her last outing, she won the G2 Wonder Again Stakes at Belmont. She’s raced in one G1 Stakes (Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf) before where she ran 6th. In that race, fellow entrant Haughty ran 3rd. Manuel Franco has ridden her in the past two starts, which she won, so he’ll be back in the saddle for the Belmont Oaks. This is a filly who seems to like the distance so, she should so well here.

New Year’s Eve

Owner: Detampel, Marc and Galvin, Fergus
Trainer: Brendan P Walsh
Jockey: Luis Saez
Career Statistics: (4) 3-0-1
2022 Statistics: (0) 0-0-0
Belmont Statistics: (0) 0-0-0

New Year’s Eve has only lost one start in her career. In her last outing she won the G2 Edgewood Stakes defeating fellow entrant McKulick by over two lengths. Before I go too much into this horse, I want to look at her one defeat where she ran 3rd. In all of her wins (3) she has had firm turf conditions. In that lone outlier, the track conditions were listed as “good” which based off the weather report, I’m sure the conditions will be listed as that for this race. While she was bumped in that race, it is something to note. Her last two workouts have been great and she seems to handle the distance well so, be sure to keep a close eye out for her.

Hot Queen (FR)

Owner: Blichfeldt, Finn
Trainer: Pia Brandt
Jockey: Stephane Pasquier
Career Statistics: (11) 3-3-2
2022 Statistics: (3) 1-0-1
Belmont Statistics: (0) 0-0-0

Hot Queen will make her American debut in the Belmont Oaks. She’s only raced against one other entrant before and that was Know Thyself who beat her in the G3 Prix Vanteaux. In the three stakes races she’s entered, she has never finished better than 3rd. Given the field, I don’t see her competing.

Know Thyself (IRE)

Owner: Glen Hill Farm
Trainer: Francis – Henri Graffard
Jockey: Julien R Leparoux
Career Statistics: (5) 1-1-1
2022 Statistics: (3) 0-1-1
Belmont Statistics: (0) 0-0-0

Another filly who will be making her state side debut. As I mentioned above, she finished 2nd in the G3 Prix Vanteaux beating out fellow entrant Hot Queen. We don’t know much about her but again, I just don’t see her competing given the quality of the field.

Agartha (IRE)

Owner: Heider Family Stables LLC
Trainer: Joseph Patrick O’Brien
Jockey: John R Velazquez
Career Statistics: (11) 2-5-2
2022 Statistics: (3) 0-2-0
Belmont Statistics: (0) 0-0-0

Agartha, like other entrants, will be making her debut in the US. She has won two graded stakes before including the G2 Alpha Centauri Debutante Stakes and G3 Frank Conroy Silver Flash Stakes. Agartha has raced in two G1 Stakes as well finishing 5th (Tattersalls Irish One Thousand Guineas) and 2nd (Moyglare Stud Stakes). In her last race, where she ran 5th, she was beaten by fellow competitor Concert Hall who ran 3rd.

Concert Hall (IRE)

Owner: Westerberg Limited, Magnier, Mrs. John, Tabor, Michael B. and Smith, Derrick
Trainer: Aidan P O’Brien
Jockey: Ryan L Moore
Career Statistics: (10) 3-1-1
2022 Statistics: (4) 1-0-1
Belmont Statistics: (0) 0-0-0

Concert Hall is the morning line favorite listed at 3-1. She’s never raced before in the US so we’ll she if she has any trouble with the slight change in surface. In terms of wet turf, she’s fairly comfortable having raced 10 times in similar conditions, winning three times. She’s raced in three G1 Stakes before never finishing better than 3rd. Her lone win this year was in the Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. Salsabil Stakes, which wasn’t graded. The team of Aidan P O’Brien and Ryan L Moore has been successful recently in this race winning with Athena in 2018 and Santa Barbara last year (2021). Santa Barbara (IRE) was the first European bred horse to win this race since 2013 when Alterite (FR) won.

Picks:

WIN: (6) NEW YEAR’S EVE

This three year-old filly is coming off an impressive win the G2 Edgewood Stakes running a 107 speed figure. She’s seemed to handle an increase in distance well so, hopefully she can do the same again.

EXACTA BOX: (3), (5), (6)

Race Information:

Track: Belmont Park (Elmont, NY, USA)
Event Grade: Grade I
Race Name: Caesars Belmont Derby Invitational Stakes
Race: 9
Post Time: 5:12 PM ET
Length: 1 1/4 Miles (10 Furlongs)
Purse: $1,000,000
Division: Colts | Three Years Old
Surface: Inner Turf
Wagers: Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 (9-11), Double Wagers

Field:

Post Position	Horse	ML Odds
1	Implementation	20-1
2	Stolen Base	10-1
3	Napoleonic War	10-1
4	Classic Causeway	12-1
5	Grand Sonata	20-1
6	Machete (FR)	20-1
7	Sy Dog	10-1
8	Royal Patronage (FR)	12-1
9	Tiz the Bomb	6-1
10	Nations Pride (IRE)	5-1
11	Emmanuel (Late Scratch)	6-1
12	Limited Liability	12-1
13	Stone Age (IRE)	9-2

Horse Preview:

Implementation

Owner: Al Maddah, Sheikh, Abdullah
Trainer: Pia Brandt
Jockey: John R Velazquez
Career Statistics: (7) 1-1-2
2022 Statistics: (5) 1-1-1
Belmont Statistics: (0) 0-0-0

Implementation was born in the States (KY) but has only raced over-seas in his career. He’ll make his U.S. debut in this race coming off a 4th place finish in the G3 Prix Paul de Moussac Longines. This was his second G3 Stakes as he finished 3rd in the Prix de Guiche in the race prior. In that race he finished behind fellow entrant Machete who also beat him in the Prix Maurice Caillault. It took him three times to break his maiden which came in February of this year. Since that win, he has yet to find the winners circle again. I’m not sure he has the speed to compete here but based on his past performances the additional distance should suit him well.

Stolen Base

Owner: Three Diamonds Farm and Greathouse, Deuce
Trainer: Michael J Maker
Jockey: Luis Saez
Career Statistics: (9) 2-3-1
2022 Statistics: (4) 1-1-1
Belmont Statistics: (0) 0-0-0

Stolen Base, son of Bodemeister, captured his second victory in his last start. His last win was in his debut where he won a MSW at the Spa. In his most recent race, he won the G2 American Turf Stakes beating fellow entrant Sy Dog. Before that, he lost to Tiz the Bomb in consecutive races. In his lone G1 Stakes, the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf. he finished 7th.

Napoleonic War

Owner: Brant, Peter, M.
Trainer: Chad C Brown
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Career Statistics: (4) 2-1-0
2022 Statistics: (4) 2-1-0
Belmont Statistics: (1) 0-1-0

Napoleonic War only has four starts to his name. In his last start, he was the runner-up in the G2 Pennine Ridge Stakes. That race was at 1 1/8 Miles which was the longest distance he’s run and seemed to handle well. His speed figures have improved in every start and if he hopes to be competitive in this race, that trend will have to continue. In the two races he’s lost, it’s come at the hands of fellow entrants Emmanuel (Pennine Ridge Stakes) and Sy Dog (Transylvania Stakes).

Classic Causeway

Owner: Kentucky West Racing LLC and Cooper, Clarke M.
Trainer: Kenneth G McPeek
Jockey: Julien R Leparoux
Career Statistics: (8) 3-1-2
2022 Statistics: (5) 2-0-1
Belmont Statistics: (0) 0-0-0

Classic Causeway last ran this distance in the G1 Kentucky Derby where he ran 11th. In his most recent race, he finished 3rd in the G3 Ohio Derby. His last victories came in March and February of this year where he won the G2 Tampa Bay Derby and G3 Sam F. Davis Stakes. This will be his first race on the turf as all of his previous eight starts have been on the dirt.

Grand Sonata

Owner: Whisper Hill Farm, LLC
Trainer: Todd A Pletcher
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Career Statistics: (7) 3-2-1
2022 Statistics: (4) 2-1-1
Belmont Statistics: (0) 0-0-0

Grand Sonata, son of Medaglia d’Oro, hasn’t been as dominant as his father was. In his last start, he ran 3rd in the Audubon Stakes. Prior to that, he finished 2nd in the G3 Transylvania Stakes and won the G3 Kitten’s Joy Stakes. His speed figures have been improving in each start but, I’m just not sure he’ll be competitive given this field.

Machete (FR)

Owner: Chappet, Fabrice
Trainer: Fabrice Chappet
Jockey: Stephane Pasquier
Career Statistics: (8) 2-1-1
2022 Statistics: (6) 2-1-1
Belmont Statistics: (0) 0-0-0

Machete, doesn’t have a particularly impressive resume. In his last out, he entered his first G1 Stakes (Qatar Prix du Jockey Club) where he finished 7th. Prior to that, he entered two G3 Stakes where he finished 2nd (Prix de Guiche) and 5th (Prix La Force).

Sy Dog

Owner: Head of Plains Partners LLC
Trainer: H Graham Motion
Jockey: Manuel Franco
Career Statistics: (4) 3-0-1
2022 Statistics: (2) 1-0-1
Belmont Statistics: (0) 0-0-0

Sy Dog, has won three of his four career starts. In his last race, he suffered his first loss in to Stolen Base in the G2 American Turf Stakes. Despite running 3rd, he raced well finishing with his best speed figure. Before that, he won the G3 Transylvania Stakes and the Central Park Stakes. The G3 Transylvania Stakes had conditions that should be similar to todays.

Royal Patronage (FR)

Owner: Highclere Thoroughbred Racing, LLC
Trainer: Charlie Johnston
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Career Statistics: (9) 3-2-0
2022 Statistics: (3) 0-1-0
Belmont Statistics: (0) 0-0-0

Royal Patronage will make his US debut. He last ran in the G1 Cazoo Derby where he finished 16th. Prior to that, he was the runner-up in the G2 Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes which was run at 1 5/16 miles. His last win came in 2021 in the G2 Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes. He’s primary raced on wet turf so, the conditions shouldn’t faze him in the slightest.

Tiz the Bomb

Owner: Magdalena Racing (Sherri McPeek)
Trainer: Kenneth G McPeek
Jockey: Dylan Davis
Career Statistics: (9) 5-1-0
2022 Statistics: (4) 2-0-0
Belmont Statistics: (0) 0-0-0

Tiz the Bomb’s last race was the G1 Kentucky Derby where he ran 9th after a slow start. Prior to that, he won the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes and the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes. In his three starts on Turf, he’s won twice and finished second once. His workouts have been encouraging so despite the short layoff, he looks to be in great form.

Nations Pride (IRE)

Owner: Godolphin, LLC
Trainer: Charles Appleby
Jockey: Lanfranco Dettor
Career Statistics: (6) 4-1-0
2022 Statistics: (3) 2-0-0
Belmont Statistics: (0) 0-0-0

Nations Pride is another entrant who will make his debut in the States. He last raced in the G1 Cazoo Derby where he finished 8th. Before that, he won his last four races including the Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Newmarket Stakes. He seems to be comfortable at this distance and with his speed he should have a great shot to win.

Emmanuel

Owner: WinStar Farm LLC and Siena Farm LLC
Trainer: Todd A Pletcher
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr
Career Statistics: (5) 3-0-1
2022 Statistics: (4) 2-0-1
Belmont Statistics: (1) 1-0-0

Emmanuel won the G2 Pennine Ridge Stakes defeating fellow entrant Napoleonic in his last start. That was also his first start on turf. The additional distance seemed to suit him well and based off his most recent speed figures this race sets up nicely for him. In his lone G1 Stakes start, he finished 3rd in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes.

Limited Liability

Owner: Janney, III, Stuart, S
Trainer: Claude R McGaughey III
Jockey: Jose L Ortiz
Career Statistics: (5) 2-0-3
2022 Statistics: (2) 1-0-1
Belmont Statistics: (2) 0-0-2

Limited Liability has yet to finish outside the money in his five career starts. In his last race he was bested by fellow entrants Emmanuel and Napoleonic War. His three defeats were all in graded stakes races which is a concern as this will be the strongest field he’s faced. However, the track conditions should suit him well as he won both races on wet turf.

Stone Age (IRE)

Owner: Magnier, Mrs. John, Tabor, Michael B., Smith, Derrick, Westerberg, Brant, Peter
Trainer: Aidan P O’Brien
Jockey: Ryan L Moore
Career Statistics: (8) 2-3-1
2022 Statistics: (3) 2-0-0
Belmont Statistics: (0) 0-0-0

Stone Age enters this race off suffering his first defeat of the season. He ran 6th in the G1 Cazoo Derby. A month before that, he won the G3 Derby Trail by five lengths. His best finish in a G1 Stakes race was last year in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud where he was the runner-up. Stone Age will also be making his North American debut.

Picks:

WIN: (13) STONE AGE

Stone Age, is trained by Aiden O’Brien and ridden by Ryan Moore which was the combination for last years winner, Bolshoi Ballet. While he did struggle in his last start, he ran earned a 112 speed figure in the Derby Trail Stakes, which is the second highest in the field. He’s ran at this distance before and has shown that he has the speed to compete. I believe we see Aiden O’Brien and Ryan Moore back in the winners circle.