The final jewel of the Triple Crown for 2022 takes place Saturday with the Belmont Stakes. The 154th running of the Belmont Stakes will feature Rich Strike who won the Kentucky Derby but decided to skip the Preakness Stakes. Despite him winning the first leg of the Triple Crown, he is not the morning line favorite. The last time we saw a horse win the Triple Crown was back in 2018 when Justify took down all three legs.
First run in 1867 at Jerome Park in the Bronx, the final leg of the Triple Crown is the toughest challenge. It is the longest leg of the three races at a 1 1/2 miles and is most remembered for Secretariat’s 31-length victory in 1973.
I’ll breakdown the field of eight in the final leg of the Triple Crown and give my best shot at picking the winner.
Race Information:
- Track: Belmont Park (Elmont, NY, USA)
- Event Grade: Grade I
- Race: 11
- Post Time: 6:44 PM ET
- Length: 1 1/2 Miles (12 Furlongs)
- Purse: $1,500,000
- Division: Open | Three Years Old
- Surface: Dirt
- Wagers: Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 (11-13), Double Wagers
Weather:
- 76 F and Overcast. Only 19% participation so rain should not be an issue and the track conditions should be fast.
TV Schedule:
- CNBC – 3:00 PM – 5:00 PM ET
- NBC – 5:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
Field:
| Post Position | Horse | Morning Line Odds |
| 1 | We the People | 2-1 |
| 2 | Skippylongstocking | 20-1 |
| 3 | Nest | 8-1 |
| 4 | Rich Strike | 7-2 |
| 5 | Creative Minister | 6-1 |
| 6 | Mo Donegal | 7-2 |
| 7 | Golden Glider | 20-1 |
| 8 | Barber Road | 10-1 |
Horse Preview:
We the People
- Owner: WinStar Farm LLC, Booby Flay, CMNWLTH and Siena Farm LLC
- Trainer: Rodolphe Brisset
- Jockey: Flavien Prat
- Career Statistics: (4) 3-0-0
- 2022 Statistics: (4) 3-0-0
- Belmont Statistics: (1) 1-0-0
The morning line favorite is coming off an impressive race in the G3 Peter Pan Stakes winning by over ten lengths. The Peter Pan is often used as a prep race for the Belmont Stakes. He led from start to finish with a 101 Equibase speed figure in that race. In that race he did beat fellow entrant GoldenGlider who ran 2nd. However, he the track conditions were wet which aided early speed like himself. Those conditions will not be replicated on Saturday so he will be vulnerable. Prior to winning the Peter Pan, he struggled in the G1 Arkansas Derby finishing 7th and looked washy. Before those two races he won in his two other starts.
His last race was on turf but he’ll transition back to dirt here, a surface he raced on in his first two starts. In terms of distance he has yet to race at 1 1/2 which isn’t all that uncommon as this distance is a rarity. His longest race to date was at a 1 1/8 mile which was last race in the Peter Pan.
Falvien Prat has been the jockey We the People in the past two races.
Skippylongstocking
- Owner: Daniel Alonso
- Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.
- Jockey: Junior Alvarado
- Career Statistics: (10) 2-1-2
- 2022 Statistics: (5) 1-1-1
- Belmont Statistics: (0) 0-0-0
Skippylongstocking finished 5th in the G1 Preakness Stakes in his last start. In his five starts this season, he only has one win which came in a $75k Allowance optional claimer. In that race he did have a great speed figure but since then he finished with an Equibase speed figure below 100 in both races. He faced fellow entrant Mo Donegal two races in the G2 Woodnine Memorial where Mo Donegal won and he finished 3rd. Looking at this horse, I just don’t see him competing in this race.
Manuel Franco has never ridden Skippylongstocking before.
Nest
- Owner: Repole Stable, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and House
- Trainer: Todd A Pletcher
- Jockey: Jose Ortiz
- Career Statistics: (6) 4-1-1
- 2022 Statistics: (3) 2-1-0
- Belmont Statistics: (2) 1-0-1
Nest, daughter of Curlin, has won two of her three races this year. Curlin finished 2nd in the Belmont Stakes back in 2007. Nest is in fact the only filly to enter this race. In her last two outs she finished 2nd in G1 Kentucky Oaks and 1st in the G1 Ashland Stakes. In the Kentucky Oak’s she ran second to Secret Oak who ran fourth in the Preakness. However, in both of those races the track conditions were wet fast (wf) which is something she wont face in the Belmont. Regardless of the track conditions, this horse has been incredibly impressive this year. Besides Rich Strike, who won the Kentucky Derby, she is the only horse with a Grade 1 victory to her name.
Nest is looking to become just the fourth filly ever to win the Belmont Stakes. Rags to Riches was the last female to accomplish the feat back in 2007.
Jose Ortiz has ridden Nest in her last four starts. Her usual rider Irad Ortiz will be aboard Mo Donegal.
Rich Strike
- Owner: RED TR-Racing, LLC
- Trainer: Eric Reed
- Jockey: Sonny Leon
- Career Statistics: (8) 2-0-3
- 2022 Statistics: (4) 1-0-2
- Belmont Statistics: (0) 0-0-0
Rich Strike fresh off a Kentucky Derby victory at 80-1 skipped the Preakness but makes his return for the last leg of the triple crown. That victory in the Kentucky Derby was his lone win of the 2022 season in four starts.
There’s no need to breakdown this horse, I’m just going to break down the two narratives. Either you think that Rich Strike is improving each race, which he is, and will continue that upward trend here. Or, you believe that his performance in the Kentucky Derby was an outlier and this horse isn’t as good as his last race.
The Kentucky Derby was his longest race to date and he’ll add another quarter of a mile in the Belmont. Honestly, I’m not sure what to make of this horse. His speed figures have improved in each of his past six races but as we saw in the Derby, a lot of favorites got bad trips. He is a front runner which historically has been the path to success at the Belmont.
Sonny Leon has ridden Rich Strike in his past five starts.
Creative Minister
- Owner: Fern Circle Stables, Back Racing LLC and Magdalena Racing
- Trainer: Ken McPeek
- Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr
- Career Statistics: (4) 2-1-1
- 2022 Statistics: (4) 2-1-1
- Belmont Statistics: (0) 0-0-0
Creative Minster, just like We the People, has started his career in 2022. To date this three year old colt only has four starts to his name. In his last out, he finished 3rd in the G1 Preakness Stakes. The Preakness was the longest race Creative Minister has raced in to date at 1 3/16 miles. Good news for Creative Minister is that the two horses who finished above him in the Preakness will not be partaking in the Belmont. Prior to that race he had won twice and finished second in his three other starts.
Brian Hernadez Jr has ridden Creative Minister in every one his four career starts.
Mo Donegal
- Owner: Donegal Racing
- Trainer: Todd A Pletcher
- Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
- Career Statistics: (6) 3-0-2
- 2022 Statistics: (3) 1-0-1
- Belmont Statistics:(2) 1-0-1
We last saw Mo Donegal in the G1 Kentucky Debry where he ran 5th. He was gaining down the stretch but just seemed to have kicked to late and run out of room. That was the only race in his career that he finished outside the money. It was also the longest race of his career. Before finishing 5th in the Derby he won the G2 Woodbine Memorial. In that race he beat fellow entrant Skippylongstocking, and Preakness winner Early Voting. Besides that race he won another G2 Stakes which was the Remsen Stakes.
Irad Ortiz Jr has ridden Mo Donegal in four of his past five starts.
Golden Glider
- Owner: Gary Barber, Penny and Manfred Conrad
- Trainer: Mark Casse
- Jockey: Dylan Davis
- Career Statistics: (6) 2-1-0
- 2022 Statistics: (5) 1-1-0
- Belmont Statistics: (1) 0-1-0
Golden Glider enters this race off a distant 2nd place finish to We the People in the G3 Peter Pan. In his career he entered four graded stakes races and that last finish was his best result. His lone two career wins were in an Allowance Optional Claimer and a Maiden Special Weight. I wont waste too much time on this horse because given the field, I just don’t see him competing given his speed.
Dylan Davis has ridden Golden Glider once before which was his last start.
Barber Road
- Owner: WSS Racing, LLC
- Trainer: John Alexander Cruz
- Jockey: Reylu Gutierrez
- Career Statistics: (9) 2-4-1
- 2022 Statistics: (4) 2-1-0
- Belmont Statistics:(0) 0-0-0
Barber Road has not visited the winners circle in the 2022 calendar year. We last saw him in the G1 Kentucky Derby where he ran 6th. Despite his worst finish of the year, he ran his best race in terms of speed figures. Prior to that race he finished 2nd in the G1 Arkansas Derby and 3rd in the G2 Rebel Stakes. He’s been increasing in distance throughout his entire career and seemed to struggle with the jump from 1 1/8 miles to 1 1/4 miles in his last out.
Joel Rosario has never ridden Barber Road before.
Picks:
WIN: (6) MO DONEGAL
EXACTA BOX: (3) NEST, (5) CREATIVE MINISER, (6) MO DONEGAL
For me, I don’t see the value in betting We the People. He’s off an impressive win in the Peter Pan but he won’t have those same favorable track conditions as he did in the Belmont. Rich Strike has also lost his value. I talked about the two narratives before and I’m going with the ladder. I don’t think he can replicate his performance in the Kentucky Derby and am fading him here in the Belmont.
Mo Donegal has the speed to compete and the additional distance should aid him. Creative Minister had an impressive race in the Preakness without the two horses who beat him, he should do well. Nest, the lone filly, is extremely impressive and a front runner. She has the pedigree and has handled distance well in the past.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
