Best Weekend in Racing! The 2022 Breeders’ Cup – Saturday Racing Free Picks

November 4, 2022

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Most casual racing fans know about the Triple Crown and the pageantry and prestige that surrounds three Saturdays in late spring. Full time fans and bettors know the best action of the year with the strongest fields happen at The Breeder’s Cup. The event returns to Keeneland for the third time after its debut there in 2015 and only with a one year layoff since it’s last inception in Lexington in 2020.

I am including picks for all 12 races on the card, The Breeders’ Cup races are numbers 3-11. The weather could get a little sloppy Saturday afternoon and it will certainly be windy. So keep an eye on the track, and if you can I’d recommend waiting to see how the track shapes up with the 2 pre-races. The races get started early so tune into Gameday and the races at the same time. I’ll give you my pick to win and at least my top 4 for each race. How you build those Exacts, Trifectas and Multi-Race bets is up to you.

Race 1 Maiden Special Weight – 7 Furlongs (Dirt)– Purse: $150,000 – Post Time: 9:30 CDT

Lots of 2 year olds without history in this one. I landed on the 5 Encendido. Not going to have much of a wager here.

WIN: 5 Encendido

Top 4 if playing exotics: 5-6-4-1

Race 2 Allowance Optional Claiming 6 1/2 Furlongs (Dirt) Purse: $195,000 Post Time – 10:05 CDT

I am going with the hot horse here in the 4 Silk Trade. Joseph Talamo gets the ride and has either won or put this horse in position to win in three straight trips. Right inside him is the main competition in the 3 Messier. Messier will move back significantly in length in his first run since the Kentucky Derby.

WIN: 4 Silk Trade

Top 4 if playing exotics: 4-3-6-10

Race 3 – The Breeders’ Cup Filly And Mare Sprint – Grade I – 7 Furlongs (DIRT) – Purse: $1,000,000 – Post Time 10:50 CDT

When I say a race is wide open in my opinion, Race 3 is the definition. There’s a ton of pace on both the inside here at the rail with the 1 Slammed, and on the outside with the 12 Lady Rocket and 13 Echo Zulu. Because of horses sprinting out of the gates from both ends I have to look at the closers here. The 4 Ce Ce won this race last year, but has been bested at this distance in the Grade I Balrina at a fast pace in August by both the 7 Obligatory and the 8 Goodnight Olive. I am going with the 8 Goodnight Olive who won that race.

WIN: 8 Goodnight Olive

Top 4 if playing exotics: 8-4-7-1

Race 4 The Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint – Grade I – 5 1/2 Furlongs (TURF) – Purse: $1,000,000 – Post Time: – 11:29 CDT

I said this last year in the Breeder’s Cup preview and in other Turf sprints where trainer Wesley Ward teams up with Irad Ortiz Jr. on a horse. Just bet it. Well that’s the case here with the 8 Golden Pal. That being said Ward is also entering the 4 Campanelle and the 7 Arrest Me Red. All of these horses seem to bust out of the gate and not look back. I’m on the favorite 8 Golden Pal who has won 8 of 11 starts and is 4 for 4 at Keeneland. Don’t be shocked however if Johnny V works some magic on 7 Arrest Me Red.

Win: 8 Golden Pal

Top 4 if playing exotics: 8-7-4-6

Race 5 The Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile – Grade I – 1 Mile (Dirt) – Purse: $1,000,000 Post Time: 12:10 CDT

Gotta love this race sponsor. The 7 Cody’s Wish is the play here. This horse hasn’t lost at this distance even though it’s had a close call in July from the 11 Three Technique. Bob Baffert has a solid entry in the 6 Laurel River who has won the last three. The best recent time outside of those comes from the 10 Senor Buscador who could post an upset attempt.

Win: 7 Cody’s Wish

Exotics: 7-10-6-3

Race 6 The Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf – Grade I – 1 3/16 Miles (TURF) – Purse: $2,000,000 Post Time: 12:50 CDT

Wide open race here, a lot depends on track condition. John Gosden brings the favorite over in the 3 Nashwa. I am fading that horse here due to what I think we be potentially softer course if any rain starts moving in around post-time. If it does I think the horse that could compete on either track is the 5 Tuesday. The Aiden O’Brien entry lost some steam at the end last trip out, but has bested Nashwa earlier in the year.

Win: 5 Tuesday

Exotics: 5-3-2-4

Race 7 The Qatar Racing Breeders’ Cup Sprint – Grade I – 6 Furlongs (Dirt) – Purse: $2,000,000 Post Time 1:30 CDT

The 2 Kimari with Wesley Ward training on this sprint looks like a great horse on the inside, but gets a new jockey in Jose Ortiz. The big time favorite will be the 9 Jackie’s Warrior, but I can’t play those odds here. 9 Jackie’s Warrior struggled in this race last year, but bounced backed to form since then only losing to Cody’s Wish his last trip out at a longer distance. The 9 has to be in all plays on Pick 3/4s, but I think there’s a pair of value horses in the field also. Those are the 4 American Theorem who dazzled with a 1:08.3 6F Trip at Del Mar at the end of July. 11 Flash of Mischief also showed sub 1:09 speed at this distance his last trip out and opens at 30-1. Those two horses could pull the upset and definitely make for some nice exotics.

Win: 4 American Theorem

Exotics: 4-11-9-2

Race 8 The Fanduel Breeders’ Cup Mile Presented By PDJF – Grade I – 1 Mile (Dirt) – Purse: $2,000,000 Post Time: 2:10 CDT

The 13 Kinross comes into this contest winner of his last 4 races. The 4 Modern Games won the Juvenile Turf last year, but only has 2 wins in 6 tries in 2022. One of those was the Woodbine Mile in the states. I worry that the 4 has made too many trips across the pond in the last 3 months however. Longshot 7 Beyond Brilliant also makes my card with a 1:32.3 mile win his last time out.

Win: 13 Kinross

Exotics: 13-4-7-14

Race 9 The Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff – Grade I – 1 1/8 Miles (Dirt) – Purse $2,000,000 Post Time 2:55 CDT

The 6 Nest will be a big favorite here. Winner of her last 3 races it’s hard to pick against her. That being said I am leaning towards the 4 Clairiere who struggled out of the gate last time out, but has the speed late to stay with Nest at the line. She came from 11th after a poor start to finish 4th in this race last year. With Joel Rosario on board I think she pulls the upset here.

Win: 4 Clairiere

Exotics: 4-6-1-7

Pick 3: – I’ll have some in for this here for sure. Hit me up @thegreatknoche on twitter if you’re interested in how I’m playing the late Pick 3 for the remaining Breeder’s Cup Races

Race 10 The Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf – Grade I – 1 1/2 Miles (TURF) – Purse: $4,000,000 Post Time: 3:40 CDT

Another wide open race for me. The horses I like best here are the 7 Nation’s Pride. This horse has two wins and a second in US races since coming over and won at this distance by margin. I think the main competition will be the 2 War Like Goddess who is the best closer in the field. If the pace doesn’t get away she could pull it off no issues at all. She’s won against the boys recently and seems to excel at this longer distance. If that happens look for the 8 Master Piece to be right there with her. For a longshot I like the 13 Highland Chief if he can find a decent trip. This horse can close as well.

Win: 2 War Like Goddess

Exotics: 2-7-8-6-13

Race 11 The Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic – Grade I -1 1/4 Miles (Dirt) Purse $6,000,000 – Post Time 4:40 CDT

Six Million in the Purse. Yowza. Well everyone and their Uncle is on the 4 Flightline, opening at 3-5 as a favorite. Can’t really blame them with his speed figure of 128 when winning the Pacific Classic at Del Mar in September. Flightline is a perfect 5-0 lifetime in finding the Winner’s Circle. However, I think there’s some decent competition in 2 Life is Good who posted a 125 at the Whitney Stakes in August and has won 6 of his last 7 races and 9 of 11 overall. Both these horses like clean air, the lead and going wire to wire. With Life is Good inside of Flightline I think he takes the lead early. Flightline while posting great marks hasn’t faced this level of competition. Another solid factoid that I trust is that Life is Good‘s Sire Mischief produced the 2020 winner of this race at this distance in Authentic. Can any other horses make some noise? Sure this is the best of the best. Kentucky Derby runner up 6 Epicenter and the 7 Olympiad would be my next two choices. Also with the right trip the 1 Taiba has shown great improvement since the Derby.