The Big 12 has always been a pretty amazing to me being that over the past 5 years or so, there has been the same 2 teams who were the outliers at the top and bottom of the conference. Every other ream was just kinda mixed in and were always pretty much as good as each other. No parody between them whatsoever means they pretty much just beat each other up. Those 2 outlying teams on the top and bottom are obviously Oklahoma and Kansas. Lets see if anything changes from my analysis.
1. Oklahoma – Power Rating – 17.5
2019 Record – 12-2
Key Transitions – Jalen Hurts and CeeDee Lamb to the NFL
Returning Production: 82nd – O49% D70%
Recruiting Rankings: ’17 – 8th ’18 – 9th ’19 – 6th
Recruiting – Top 8 over the last 3 years
Net YPP: 2.33 Huge
Turnover Margin: -8 – Horrible and should improve
Schedule – Medium Hard – Tough away games at Iowa State and at TCU. Tennessee won’t be a cake walk next year.
Season Win Total: 10
Summary: Lots of question marks as usual for this team but has that mattered the last 3 or 4 years? it looks like another new QB for this team. Losing Jalen Hurts and CeeDee Lamb will leave a mark but they do bring back a lot of O-Line. Spencer Rattler looks to be the starting QB for the Sooners this year. He is a touted 5-star recruit out of Phoenix Pinnacle High and is expected to do big things in Lincoln Riley’s offense next season after playing sparingly behind Jalen Hurts last season. The defense should improve here returning 70% production and I do trust Lincoln Riley to make sure they are more of a focus this year. Top 8 recruiting classes the last 3 years is par for the course for Oklahoma.
My Wins – 9.5 so lean under – tricky schedule and unproven talent at QB
2. Texas – Power Rating – 15.5
2019 Record – 8-5
Key Transitions – Devin Duverney to the NFL and 2 new coordinators in Chris Ash and Mike Yurcich
Returning Production: 21st – O66% D82%
Recruiting – Top 20 over the last 3 years
Recruting Ranking ’17 – 25th ’18 – 3rd ’19 – 3rd.
Net YPP: .26 – BAD
Turnover Margin: +6 – Pretty good and may not regress back to the mean
Schedule – Medium Hard – At LSU will tell you everything that you need to know about the future of this season win total.
Season Win Total: 9
Summary: Make or break! This has to be the year that Texas overtakes Oklahoma. With 2 new offensive and Defensive coordinators coming in, you can see that Tom Herman isn’t messing around. Chris Ash was very successful on defense before becoming the head coach of Rutgers. He helped the Badgers to two Rose bowls from 2010-2011 and was a big part of Ohio State’s 2014 title. Mike Yurcich was a Quarterback coach and passing coordinator at Ohio State last year as well as offensive coordinator at Oklahoma State 5 years before that showing some great experience calling plays. Sam Ellinger returns at the helm for Texas along with most of the offensive line and running backs. The Longhorns do lose a few at wide receiver like Devin Duvernay and Collin Johnson, but guys like Brennen Eagles and Al’Vonte Woodard will step right in. Returning 82% of their defense should be huge this year and they should make a step forward. In order to reach expectations, Texas needs to get past LSU their second game this season and will have a lot to prove vs Oklahoma.
My number is 9.5 so lean over – once again I wonder if this is the year that Sam Ellinger brings this team to where it supposed to be.
3. Oklahoma State – Power Rating – 9.75
2019 Record – 8-5
Key Transitions – None
Returning Production: 9th – O75% D86%
Recruiting – In the 30s over the last 3 years
Recruiting Rankings: ’17 – 34th ’18 – 38th ’19 – 34th
2019 Net YPP: .6 Meh
Turnover Margin: -1 – Should improve
Schedule – Medium – Non-conference is pretty easy and they get Texas at home.
Season Win total: 8.5
Summary: Great returning production ranking 9th in the nation. They will have a new offensive coordinator in Kasey Dunn but that shouldn’t change many things in my opinion. Oklahoma State is a dangerous team for 2020. The fact that Spencer Sanders returning is nice but he was only 16-11 TD to INT ratio and 2065 yards passing. This needs to improve if they are going to make a run. I really like the fact that this team showed well against the top opponents last year and never really got blown out. RB Chuba Hubbard led the NCAA in rushing yards at 2098 and i expect another great year. The Pokes can score against anybody in the Big 12 and if their defense steps up then lookout.
My Number is 8.5 with some upside
4. Iowa State – Power Rating – 9.5
2019 Record – 7-6
Key Transitions – None
2019 Returning Production: 52nd – O62% D73%
Recruiting – In the 40s and 50s over the last 3 years
Recruiting Rankings: ’17 -’52nd ’18 – 55th ’19 – 46th
2019 Net YPP: 1.09 – Very good
Turnover Margin: -3 – bad and needs to get better
Schedule – Medium – Non-Conference is tough vs Iowa but they get Oklahoma at home and go to Texas.
Season Win Total: 8
Summary: Iowa State returns their main guys this year and that is a very good thing. I thought Matt Campbell once again did a fine job last year and if it wasn’t for that special teams fumble vs Iowa, they win that game. Brock Purdy passed for a massive 3982 yards with a 27-9 TD to Interception ratio. Lots of people have Iowa State as a sleeper team this year in the Big 12 and it is hard for me to disagree looking at their yards per play numbers from last year. This team lost 2 receivers to graduation but return their main receiver Tarique Milton. Breece Hall also returns at tailback who was their leading rusher last year. Another tell that this team could be good is that none of their seniors were drafted into the NFL while the Cyclones still were able to pull of some good stats. I think my biggest question here is the offensive line who only returns 2 starters but if that improves than this might be the real team who pushes the Sooners for the top spot.
My Number – 9 wins with upside so strong lean over but I am taking Iowa State 12-1 to win the Big 12!
5. TCU – Power Rating – 8
2019 Record – 5-7
Key Transitions – Jalen Reagor Wr, Jeff Gladney CB, Ross Blaylock DT to the NFL draft
Returning Production: 64th – O61% D68%
Recruiting – In the late 20s ish over the last 3 years
Recruiting Rankings: ’17 -’28th ’18 – 25th ’19 – 31st
2019 Net YPP: .15 – Bad for this team
Turnover Margin: 0 – Medium
Schedule – Medium hard – Non conference is tricky vs SMU and at Cal. They at least get Oklahoma and Iowa State at home but they go to Texas
Season Win Total: 6.5
Summary: TCU has a really hard start to the schedule. First they have to go to Cal and might very well lose that one. After an easy win vs Prairieview, they get SMU who was a pretty good team last year as we all saw when the mustangs actually beat the horned frogs at home. This will be a revenge spot. TCU then has to host Oklahoma State the week after which won’t be easy at all. Quarterback Max Duggan returns with some experience but at 53% completions, that might not be that good of a thing. TCU’s outlook to me seems very dependent on the four new offensive lineman coming in and their 5 star freshman running back Daimarqua Foster. I really struggled where to put this team in my power ratings this year. I think that there are at least four better teams than they are and they probably will lose at home to Oklahoma and Iowa State both at home, I have them at 7 wins on the nose.
My Number – 7 wins so small lean over
6. Baylor – Power Rating – 8
2019 Record – 11-3 pretty amazing
Key Transitions – Coach Matt Rhule to NFL, Dave Aranda new coach, Denzel Mims WR, Bravvion Roy DL, and James Lynch DL to the NFL
Returning Production: 108th – O70% D32%
Recruiting Rankings: ’17 – 40th ’18 – 29th ’19 – 35th
Recruiting – Average around 35th the last 3 years
Net YPP: 1.33 Huge for this team
Turnover Margin: +11 – Great but maybe some regression
Schedule – Medium – Non-conference looks easier because LA Tech lost a lot of players and it will be too early for Ole miss to be good under new coach Mike Leach.
Season Win Total: 7.5
Summary: Baylor is a similar situation to Minnesota except minus 1 great coach. This team greatly exceeded expectations last year and now has the pressure with new coach and former Wisconsin and LSU defensive coordinator Dave Aranda due to Matt Rhule going to the NFL. This is a good replacement in my opinion because Baylor’s defense only returns 32% production and the kids need good leadership to stay tough in this conference. Keeping Charlie Brewer and a lot of offense is huge though minus the loss of my favorite wide receiver in the draft in Denzel Mims. I think this team could be an over team from the get go until these kids can learn the defensive schemes. My number is literally right where Vegas has it so no value.
My Wins – 7.5
The next three teams are very interesting to me because they all had new coaches last year and all did pretty well. Neal Brown is the coach of West Virginia who came from Troy went 5-7 last year with no returning production, Matt Wells at Texas Tech who came from Utah State went 4-8 last year on a tough schedule and lost his starting QB game 3, and Chris Klieman came from many division 2 championships at North Dakota State and brought his team to an 8-5 record last year and a bowl appearance vs Navy! Can’t wait to see who emerges this year.
7. Texas Tech – Power Rating – 5.5
2019 Record – 4-8
Key Transitions – None
Returning Production: 81st – O48%% D71%
Recruiting Rankings: ’17 – 49th ’18 – 72nd ’19 – 62nd
Recruiting – Average is 61st the last few years. Not good.
Net YPP: -.5
Turnover Margin: +4 – Pretty good for this team
Schedule – Medium Easy – This team might have the easiest schedule in the Big 12.
Season Win Total: 6
Summary: After the firing of Kliff Kingsbury, I thought that Matt Wells has done a half way decent job to stay in games. Offensive returning production is a little off on this team due to quarterback Alan Bowman’s injury week 3. Another good thing is that the Red Raiders might have the easiest schedule in the Big 12. They get both Texas and Oklahoma at home and their non-conference games looks good vs UTEP, Alabama State and Arizona at home. This team took Baylor to overtime last year, won at West Virginia and beat Oklahoma State. Texas Tech returns their skill positions which is very nice on offense but they have to fill a few holes on defense such as Jordyn Brooks who went to the NFL in the first round and Broderick Washington at Defensive Tackle who was a 5th rounder. This team could be sneaky good.
My Wins – 6 with some upside
8. Kansas State – Power Rating – 5.5
2019 Record – 8-5
Transitions – Lost the whole Offensive Line
Returning Production: 76th- O59% D63%
Recruiting Rankings: ’17 – 61st ’18 – 66th ’19 – 63rd
Recruiting – In the 60s
Net YPP: -.62 and expected for a first year head coach
Turnover Margin: +1
Schedule – Medium easy – Goes to Oklahoma and gets Texas at home. Easier non-conference
Season Win Total: 6.5
Summary: Kansas State had a great first year under Chris Klieman and they shockingly won 8 games. I was very impressed with how they finished the season winning at Texas Tech and then at home vs Iowa State. Oh, yeah, don’t forget beating OKLAHOMA as well! The Cats also almost beat a great Navy team in their bowl game last year. My biggest issue with this team for 2020 is that they only return 2 starters on offense but at least one of them is their Quarterback in Skyler Johnson. They return 5 out of 11 starters on defense as well so lots of question marks. Even tho this team won 8 games last year, I can only count 6 wins for sure.
My Wins – 6 so no play
9. West Virginia – Power Rating – 4
2019 Record – 5-7
Key Transitions – None
Returning Production: 66th – O71% D58%
Recruiting Rankings: ’17 – 57th ’18 – 35th ’19 – 48th
Recruiting – Recruiting averages around 47th
Net YPP: -.58 typical
Turnover Margin: -6 – This was bad but I kinda like it because this more experience team can regress to the mean
Schedule – Medium – All depends on Florida State
Season Win Total: 5.5
Summary: This team really shocked me last year winning 5 games and what an amazing finish at the end winning 2 out of their last 3 at Kansas State and at TCU. They also kept with Oklahoma State only losing by 6 points. 1st year coach Neal Brown did a fantastic job with them because they ranked worst at returning production last year and still prospered. The interesting thing about the medium returning production this year is that Jarrett Doege took over for Austin Kendall last year and actually was the better quarterback so their offensive number of 71% returning should be a bit higher. On Defense they list only 5 starters returning but in all reality, 8 of them had some significant snaps last year. I think their first game in Atlanta vs the Florida State Seminoles should really set the tone for how the Mountaineers will do this season.
My Wins – 5.5 so no play
10. Kansas – Power Rating – -4
2019 Record – 3-9
Key Transitions – None
Returning Production: – 126th – O41% D44%
Recruiting Rankings: ’17 – 71st ’18 – 60th ’19 – 70th
Recruiting – Lots of work to do ranking in the high 60s
Net YPP: -.29 – Shocking that its this high
Turnover Margin: -12 – Horrible but this is probably a good thing if they can bring it to 0
Schedule – Medium Easy – Non-conference is a cake walk
Season Win Total: 3.5
Summary: Les Miles really took up a challenge when accepting the Kansas Job. This team hasn’t done anything since the 1960s and I am not even that old to know. Their recruiting ranks in the high 60s and they pretty much are going against group of 5 conference schools and some division 2 schools. You see, kids have to decide if they will get noticed more playing for an Appalachian State team and winning over a bad Power 5 team like Kansas. The thing that was shocking to me is that there is some room for improvement. I really do not care that they lost a ton of production when they really were not producing much, but I do like the fact that they can improve their turnover margin and maybe be in some games. They have a defensive minded coach so anything is possible in the Big 12 I suppose. In saying that I do not want to go over 3.5 games when I only see 2 for sure wins and a couple of maybes.
My Wins – 3
References:
247 Sports: https://247sports.com/season/2017-football/compositeteamrankings/
Bill Connelly of ESPN https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/28649423/college-football-teams-most-returning-production-2020
