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It’s a very interesting Monday night slate. 5/8 are road favorites, 3/8 are 9 point favorites or more and 7/8 are 4 point favorites or more. What does that mean? Well, could be a long night for punters(British term for gamblers)!
There is one road favorite I’ll be backing that shouldn’t have any trouble! I’ll give you a hint: ANTLERS!
Cleveland at Washington +1 (O/U 223)
The Wizards come off two devastating losses, up 20+ points in each. Now head back home to face the #1 defense in the NBA. What I liked about them recently was how much their defense has improved. In the past two games one would not know that. I think they rebound tonight defensively against a club who has struggled to score on the road this season ranking 28th in total points.
Both teams play a tight defense and don’t give up easy buckets, ranking 1st(Cle) and 6th(Wash) in assists given up per game. Both teams rank fairly well in the turnover category offensively. So pace should play a huge factor tonight with Cleveland being the slowest team in the league and Washington ranking 17th.
When the Wizards are on 2 days rest, the O/U is 9-16, and 2-7-1 in the last 10. As far as the Cavs, when on 0 days rest the O/U is 0-6 in their last 6 games and unders have come in 5/6 when off a win. Needless to say I like the under here!
Under 223 (DraftKings -110) 0.75 unit
Milwaukee at Portland +4 1/2 (O/U 242 1/2)
I absolutely love this game! Going with 3 plays here, including a rare player prop.
Milwaukee comes into this game well rested! With no back to backs in three weeks, they have played 5/6 at home, also 7/10 at home. With their only away games at Indiana, Cleveland and Detroit, meaning very little travel. The Bucks are 6-4 ATS in their last 10, some would say, so what? Well in their 4 non covers, Giannis was out for one, two they were -10 and above and the fourth they made a huge comeback vs LAC. For the season the Bucks are 19-6-2 as favorites of 7 points or less.
Portland is missing Nurkic for a technically 3rd straight game, this will be huge tonight not being able to keep Giannis off the glass. The Blazers are 28th in the league giving up 38.3% from three at home, this bodes well for Brook Lopez who has been ice cold from downtown recently! Going 0-12 in his last 4, but his last two away games he’s gone 5/12. In Portland’s 8 of the last 10 games, they have given up over 50% from the field and are in the bottom 1/3rd of the league defensively in assists, ast/TO’s, steals and blocks.
Portland comes out of the gate fairly slow for some reason, and they’re facing a Buck team who averages 30.1 points in the 1Q. Milwaukee has been up at the end of one in 7 of 9 games and up 7+ points in 6 of them.
1Q: Bucks -1 1/2 (BetRivers -108) 1.25 units *UNIT UPGRADE*
Bucks -4 1/2 (Barstool -107) 1 unit
Brook Lopez P-R-A over 19 1/2 (DraftKings -115) 0.75 unit
Good luck to all those tailing, lets have ourselves a week!
