321 IOWA/ MICH 1H Total 22.5 (-105)
I can’t buy into the high scores of these two teams’ past few games. When we think of Iowa, we think defense, right? But when I dig into the stats, these teams are more similar than I initially thought. Looking at Opponent Yards per Point, these defenses are comparable. Michigan’s defensive YPPt metric is surprisingly a touch better than the renowned Hawkeye D. Neither of these defenses should make too many mistakes. Offensive YPPt for these two are also very similar. Apples-to-apples in opponents, both played Penn State tight who has a pretty good defense and both almost lost to Nebraska. Then again, everybody in the Big Ten almost lost to Nebraska this year so… Kidding aside, I can see this one playing out more like their matchups with Penn State. I’ll take the extra point for the 1H under, but also like Iowa to stay close in this one by taking it slow… old school, Big Ten- December style.
321 IOWA 1H UN 22.5 (-105)- 1.05u
Enjoy Conference Championship Day! Visit https://www.patreon.com/kooziesports for more of my plays! +5.25u L2W!
