Indiana(+2000 to win the Big Ten, O/U 7.5 wins)
Head coach Tom Allen has this club turned around after an excellent 2020 season beating #7 Penn State, #23 Michigan, and #18 Wisconsin. They gave the powerhouse of the Big Ten, Ohio State, a hell of a game losing 42-35 at the Horseshoe. Indiana ended the year ranked #12 and will have 18 starters returning from that team. Now they go from underdogs to favorites in games. Time will tell how they handle the expectations.
The question on offense leading into the season will be if Michael Penix Jr. is healthy enough to play. He is coming off a midseason ACL injury last season and the expectations are that he will be ready for the opener. Leading the receiving corps will be veteran WR Ty Fryfogle and TE Peyton Hendershot. The Hosiers brought in 2 more veteran receivers when DJ Mathews Jr. (Florida St) and Camron Buckley (Texas A&M) transferred onto campus. There will be focus to improve the offensive line play and returning 4 of the starters will help. They also will be replacing their workhorse running back from last season and most likely candidate will be junior RB Sampson James.
Indiana’s defense was definitely the strength of the team last season as they ranked 19th in PPG and 10th in turnover margin. The defense returns 8 starters headlined by senior LB Micah McFadden who led the team in tackles and sacks last season. They are thrilled by getting Ole Miss transfer, Ryder Anderson and he is slated to start at DE. The secondary should also be improved with LB/DB Marcelino McCrary-Ball returning after having to sit out last season with an injury. He was a starter his first 3 seasons.
I like this team a lot. Take Indiana to go OVER 7.5 wins AND to WIN the Big Ten
Maryland (+10000 to win the Big Ten, O/U 5.5 wins)
The Terrapins come into 2021 after a pandemic latened season going 2-3 to close out the season. Head Coach Mike Locksley has recruited a top 20 class coming into this season and will be returning 19 starters this year.
Taulia Tagovailoa returns to what was a below average offense a year ago by only putting up 23.6 PPG. Other than Tagovailoa, the offense returns 7 starters highlighted by WR Dontay Demus Jr who led the team last season with 24 catches ,365 yards and 4 touchdowns. Bruiser RB Tayon Fleep-Davis should get the bulk of the carries this season and will be running behind an offensive line with 2 new starters.
The defense struggled last season, especially while trying to stop the run while giving up, a 115th ranked, 230 YPG. Although they will need to make some changes and improve, DC Brian Stewart will be working with 9 starters from last season. Their top recruit and #1 inside linebacker in the nation, Terrance Lewis, will be a plug and play for this defense. The clear strengths of the defense are the safeties, All-Big Ten honorable mention Nick Cross and spring MVP Jordan Mosley.
The Terps should have 3 wins in their first 4 games, but it gets pretty tough after that. 5.5 wins looks to be right on. I’m gonna PASS on this one.
Michigan (+2500 to win the Big Ten, O/U 7.5 wins)
After another disappointing season, Jim Harbaugh returns for his 7th season as the Wolverines head coach. Michigan ended the season 2-4 and had their last 3 games cancelled due to the pandemic. The biggest change this season will be that the Wolverines coaching staff will be without long time DC Don Brown.
There are a lot of unknowns at the quarterback position as it looks like junior Cade McNamara is set to start. He could have some competition from former 5-star freshman JJ McCarthy and Texas Tech transfer Alan Bowman. The Wolverines will return leading rusher Hassan Haskins and top 2 receivers, Ronnie Bell and Cornelius Johnson. The strength of the offense will be the offensive line who has every starter back and led the Big Ten a year ago in fewest sacks allowed.
Although there are 9 returning starters on defense, the Wolverines need an overhaul on this side of the ball. A unit that is typically one of the best in the nation, fell to 95th by allowing 34.5 PPG. In saying that, new DC Mike McDonald does have some players to build upon with experienced D-linemen Christopher Hinton and Aidan Hutchinson returning and safeties Brad Hawkins and Daxton Hill possibly the strongest position on the Wolverines.
I could see Michigan starting the season 4-0 but, like Maryland, the season gets tough after that. I have them winning 7 or 8 games in 2021. So I will PASS on this one too.
Michigan State (+10000 to win the Big Ten, O/U 4.5 wins)
After 13 seasons season with Mark Dantonio in charge at Michigan State, the Spartans will look to new head coach Mel Tucker to get back to their winning ways. Sparty had another disappointing season last year and will look to rebound in 2021. Tucker set the tone right away when he said “this is a compete-to-play, compete -to-stay” culture. Thirty players exited the system and Tucker went right to the transfer portal to compensate.
Michigan State’s offense had a horrible year in 2020 averaging only 18 points and ranking 116th in the nation. Saying that, if they Spartans iron out the starting quarterback situation and solidify the offensive line, they could have a productive and exciting offense. Sophomore Peyton Thorne and Temple transfer, Anthony Russo will battle it out for the starting QB gig. Top receivers, Jalen Nailer and Jayden Reed, are back for their junior year. Reed is one of the top WR in the conference and Nailer has the speed to stretch the field. Transfer Kenneth Walker (Wake Forest) should get the bulk of the carries from the running back position. The offensive line should be constructed by 4 returning starters and Arkansas State transfer Jarret Horst at right tackle.
The Spartans have to replace their best players on all three levels of the defense but are returning 7 starters. However, those starters a year ago could very easily be replaced by underclassmen or transfers after a year of allowing a 100th ranked 35.1 PPG. MSU’s defensive line is the deepest and most experienced group on this side of the ball with question marks coming from the back 7. Though, Xavier Henderson looks to be the captain of the defense and will be the guy to lead this defense to success or mediocrity.
Sparty looks to be a 4 or 5 win team, so we PASS again.
Ohio State (-220 to win the Big Ten, O/U 11 wins)
Rinse and repeat? The Buckeyes played in the Big Ten Championship again last season beating Northwestern 22-10. They took it to Clemson in a rematch of the playoff game in 2019. However, they did fall short against Alabama in the National Championship. The Buckeyes will be replacing 10 NFL draft picks for the second straight year but the way Day and his staff recruits they shouldn’t miss a beat.
Top 2 receivers and NFL prospects, Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson, will be back to destroy Big Ten secondaries and RB Master Teague will be back to carry the load. The big change will come at quarterback where whoever wins the competition, and right now it looks like redshirt freshmen CJ Stroud will be the starter, still has not thrown as pass in college. TE Jeremy Ruckert will be a popular target for the new starter as he creates mismatches with his size and athleticism. The offensive line has a pair of dominate tackles as Thayer Munford and Nicholas Petit-Frere returning and this will be Munford’s 4th year as starting LT.
If there was a weakness on this team last year, it was definitely the defense and specifically the pass defense. Second year offensive coordinator, Kerry Combs, will have some work to do replacing 6 starters and revamping the secondary. The Buckeyes are expected to play a 4-2-5 defense with a hybrid safety/linebacker, in which coaches call the “bullet”, taking the place of a traditional linebacker. With no surprise, the strength of this defense will be the defensive line with defensive ends, Zach Harrison and Tyreke Smith standing out.
Games at Minnesota (1st game of the season), at Indiana, vs Penn State, at Nebraska, and at Michigan will all be tough games for the Buckeyes. I see them losing at least 2 of the 5 games. Take UNDER 11
Penn State (+900 to win the Big Ten, O/U 9 wins)
Coming off a disappointing 4-5 season in 2020, Head Coach James Franklin and the Nittany Lions looks to rebound and improve in the competitive Big Ten Conference. PSU started the season last year with 5 straight losses and finished the season with 4 wins. They will have 18 starters returning for 2021.
Mike Yurich takes over an offense that averaged 29.8 PPG and 430.30 YPG, which ranked 37th in the nation. He comes over from Texas and in Yurich’s only year with the Longhorns, they averaged 42.7 points per game, second most in school history and 7th in the nation. In his career, Yurich’s offense averaged 6.49 yards a play. Nine starters return for the Lions on offense including QB Sean Clifford, WR Jahan Dodson and LT Rasheed Walker. Clifford is in his 3rd year as the starter and has been inconsistent and this will be his 4th offensive coordinator and quarterback coach in his 5 years at being at Penn State. Dodson enjoyed a breakout season last year and led the Big Ten in 884 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns. Parker Washington and KeAndre Lambert-Smith were impressive last year as freshmen and tight ends Brenton Strange and Theo Johnson will be counted on to step up after Pat Freiermuth was drafted to the NFL. It sounds like it will be running back-by-committee with John Lovett (transfer from Baylor), Keyvone Lee and Noah Cain getting the bulk of the carries and they will be behind an offensive line with 3 returning starters. They will look to improve the 3.9 YPR and 28 sacks allowed in 2020.
Defensive coordinator Brent Pry looks to improve upon a Penn State defense that returns 7 starters. A Defense that allowed 27.7 points per game, which was the most in school history, and owned a turnover margin of -7. Of course, the defense isn’t all to blame as both sides of the ball look to improve upon that. PSU gave up a record number of points but only gave up 328.8 yards per game in 2020 which was good enough for 17th in the nation. The Nittany Lions added 3 experience transfers to this side of the ball including DE Arnold Ebiketie, who came over from Temple, is expected to start. The strength of this defense should be the secondary and they will be led by cornerback Tariq Castro-Field and safety Jaquan Brisker and might rotate as many as 6 guys back there.
I have an improved Penn State team winning 9 games so we will pass on an O/U.
Rutgers (+25000 to win the Big Ten, O/U TBD)
In his second stint, Head Coach Greg Schiano’s first season back was mediocre going 3-6, but 3 of the loses were by a touchdown or less. Something to built on. The Scarlet Knights also have 22 starters returning, which is most in the Big Ten.
Everyone on returns from an offense that was middle of the pack in the Big Ten. Noah Vedral returns as the starting QB after throwing for 61.5% last season, but don’t be surprised if freshman Evan Simon pushes him for playing time. Then there is also wildcat quarterback, Johnny Langan, who was 2nd on the team in rushing last season. RB Isaih Pacheco was the leading rusher on the team averaging 4.4 YPP and running for 515 yards in the shortened season. The receiving corps returns led by speedy Bo Melton and he is coming off a breakout season with 47 catches and six touchdowns. The offensive line is experienced and even added transfer David Nwaogwugwu (Temple), who looks to be slated for the right tackle spot.
Rutgers defense will be returning 9 starters and will be highlighted by LB Olakunle Fatukasi. The leader of the defense, Fatukasi had 101 tackles in 2020, most in the Big Ten, and earned All-Big Ten first team. Including Fatukasi, the Scarlett Knights return 9 of their top 10 tacklers from a season ago. CB Avery Young and S Christian Izien will lead the secondary and attempt to turn the ball over from the opposing offenses. Which was a strength of the defense last year owning a top 25 turnover margin (+6). Izien led the secondary with 4 pass deflections and 4 interceptions.
Rutgers total is not available as of yet but I have the Scarlett Knights improving and winning 7 games in 2021.
