The books have owned me since Christmas, so I decided to write about my losses each day and let you know WHY they lost and give you my analysis to why they SHOULD have won. Hope you enjoy and can learn from it.
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Illinois had no side effects from the Covid pause, shot 42.9% from three and out rebounded Minnesota 52-26
The Illinois Fighting Illini are on the road as they travel to face the Minnesota Golden Gophers Tuesday night at Williams Arena. Illinois comes in 9-3 after a 88-63 win on a neutral floor as they rolled past Missouri back on December 22. The Fighting Illini were supposed to play Florida A&M December 29 but had that game called off due to having 10 players test positive for COVID-19. Minnesota enters with a 10-1 record after knocking off Green Bay 72-56 at home in their most recent contest back on December 22. The Gophers had one game cancelled but have not been effected by the virus and have been practicing every day, other than the required break for the holidays. “It’s been a very different Christmas break. Instead of having two-a-days, we did nothing,” Illinois head coach Brad Underwood said. “We’ve done very little activity at all. …You’re looking at a long period of time where guys haven’t had a ball in their hands and haven’t done anything physically at all. But we’re back, and we’re going to play a game tomorrow.” The key matchup will be the offense of Illinois who score 81.2 points per game and shoot 47.7% from the field against the Gophers defense while only allows 63.1 points per game on 41% shooting and are even better at home. Illinois thrives on the offensive side of the ball by shooting 39.7% from long distance and rebounding the ball with opportunities to second chance points but they could have some issues doing that against the Gophers defense who only gives up 24.8% from three, ranking them 3rd in the nation. There should be opportunities for the Gophers defense as well with the Illini ranking 302nd in turnover percentage on offense which opens up opportunities for quick points off breakaway steals, a stat that the Illini rank 347th in. Illinois is the better team but if you combine the lack of conditioning by Illinois with the experienced Gophers squad playing at home, I expect the Illini to win by 5 points or less. Additionally, the Fighting Illini are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite and are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 while the Golden Gophers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. Take Minnesota +7.5 (play to +6.5)
Virginia shot 54.3% from the field and limited Clemson to 46%. Hoos also out rebounded 28-23 and hit 87.5% of FT (Clemson 62.5%)
The Virginia Cavaliers will stay on the road tonight with a trip to South Carolina to take on the Clemson Tigers at Littlejohn Coliseum. The Cavaliers have been up and down this season and are 8-5 overall after winning three of the last five games played including a five point road win against Syracuse on New Year’s Day. The Tigers enter with a 9-4 record after beating this same Virginia team by 17 points on December 22nd. Their last game against Duke was cancelled due to Covid protocols within the Blue Devils squad. With similar strength of schedules, the Hoos come in scoring just 62.8 points per game but hold their opposition to 57.2 points per game while the Tigers are scoring 75.2 points per game and allowing 65.2 points per game. Virginia scores most of their points inside the arc but they will be challenge by the Tigers 62nd ranked defense in allowing 2-point field goals. These defenses are comparable this season but the edge in this game will go to Clemson with the better offense and rebounding. The Tigers own the 24th best adjusted offensive efficiency and rank 99th in grabbing the boards, whereas, Virginia is 126th in effective field goal percentage and 302nd in total rebounds per game. They might not win by the margin they did last game, but I don’t expect the outcome to be much different. Additionally, the Cavaliers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 while the Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record and are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games. Take Clemson -4 (play to -4.5)
