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Braves, Mets in the Big Apple what more can you ask for? Two teams going in different directions, with the Mets winning 11 of their last 15 and playing good ball for about 2 months now. As far as Atlanta, losing 7 of 10 and struggling at the plate.
Braves Unders have been extremely profitable in 2024, 36-59 to be exact. Throw game 1 of the series into the equation and the trend blossoms into a strong play, with Atlanta’s O/U 3-8-2 in gm1 of their series in their last 13 series. Between their struggles at the plate, and some great pitching from a few unexpected candidates, I’ve been looking to attack this trend each night. Which segways great into tonight’s affair.
Chris Sale has seemed to resurrect his career in Atlanta. The 35yo lefty is posting his former Cy Young numbers back in 2018. ERA, EV, xBA hard hit% and a whopping 26.8% difference between K’s and BB’s. Pick your poison with righties hitting .205 vs Sale and lefties at a .166 BA. Another category I like to hone into is day/night splits. Sale is posting 4.14 ERA in the day, compared to 1.68 ERA at night, with a WHIP of 0.82.
In the other dugout is Luis Severino putting up an impressive 2024 campaign with some great performances as of late. Ranking at the top of the Majors in avg EV and barrel %, meaning limiting the hard-hit balls. Quite a difference in splits at Citi Field, posting an 2.82 ERA, compared to 4.42 on the road.
With the Braves hitting .220 vs righties in their last 10, and NY hitting .238 vs lefties as of late, I think this turns into a pitching duel at the Big Apple landing us on the under! With a unit upgrade.
Under 7.5 (-115) 2 units
