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Not sure what the committee’s goal was here, but putting Kansas, UCLA, Gonzaga and UConn certainly has presented challenges for those who move on each round. Regardless I will break down each and every game in this bracket throughout the tournament, starting with the Round of 64. Let’s get this party started!
Thursday March 16th
Des Moines, IA
16 Howard vs 1 Kansas -22 (O/U 146) 2:00pm ET
The Jay-hawks got absolutely buried by Texas twice in their last 4 games, and are looking to forget it quickly. They still managed to land #1 seed in the big dance, largely because of their plethora of quad 1 wins. This team can get sloppy at times, and it may not matter vs the Bison, but I believe it will come into play in the upcoming rounds. Like the UCLA game, it’s a pass for me, but most surely the wait and see approach.
Play- PASS
9 Illinois vs 8 Arkansas -2 (O/U 144) 4:30pm ET
To me this is one of the most intriguing games of the whole Round of 64. I believe these are two teams that have the ability and talent to potentially make a run, especially with a vulnerable high turnover prone Kansas team waiting in the wings.
You have an Illini squad who beat UCLA, as well as Texas, but lack discipline and lost to Penn St 3 times. They also struggled down the stretch, losing their last 3 of 4 and 6 of 10. They rely on the 3 a bit too much at times, averaging 25 attempts a game, unfortunately for them Arkansas can defend it well. Giving up 5.1 a game, lowering to 3.4 a game in their L5. Can the Razorbacks have short term memory, after blowing a 13 point lead at halftime vs Texas AM in the conference tourney? I believe they can and will, facing an Illini team who has had trouble getting out of the gate this season, but fight like heck late.
Play- 1H: Arkansas -1 (Caesars -110) 0.75 unit
Sacramento, CA
10 Boise St vs 7 Northwestern -1.5 (O/U 129.5) 7:35pm ET
The Wildcats have had an unforgettable season so far, winning 12 games the highest of Coach Collins tenure and playing tough physical defense. Having Boo Buie helps too, scoring in double digits in all but 3 games, and a whopping 13 twenty points or more games! His ability to take over the game at any time has been a big part of their success this season. Their discipline on both ends is going to make it a long day for the Broncos. Committing less than 10 turnovers per game, grabbing 10.4 offensive boards in their L5, and having given up 21.3 made field goals per game in 9 of their L10.
None of this bodes well for a struggling Boise St squad, losing 3 of their L5 and covering in 2 of their last 11 games. Defensively they better figure it out quick, because of their capability of going on scoring droughts. Offensively they have not been able to eclipse more than 44.6% shooting more than once in their last 7. The BSU defense has given up 73.4 points a game in their last 7, as well as 14.8 assists per game in their L5. This is my best bet in the region!
Play- Northwestern ML -130 (FanDuel) 2 units
15 UNC Asheville vs 2 UCLA -17.5 (O/U 135.5) 10:05pm ET
The Bruins who many counted out in the PAC 12 championship due to injuries, led for countless minutes of the game. Only to come up a little short vs a tough Arizona squad, but in my eyes lighting a fire in their backs to start this road to a championship! Yes, UCLA is my pre tournament pick to win it all. They get to face the Big South champs Thursday night in Sacramento, which in my opinion are the perfect opponents to get their confidence back with gorillas waiting to play them in the upcoming games. Adem Bona who suffered an injury March 12th is questionable, but not necessarily needed vs UNC-Asheville. I have no play on this game, but will be closely monitoring the Bruins!
Play- PASS
Friday, March 17th
Albany, NY
12 VCU vs 5 St. Mary’s -4 (O/U 122.5) 2:00pm ET
VCU from what I have read is the ‘Wise Guy’s’ pick, and quite honestly why not. They are the A-10 champs, they force 16.5 turnovers a game, and have shot the ball tremendously recently. In their L5, they shot 51%, 41% from three and averaging 16.6 assists per game.
Now taking on this Saint Mary’s defense will be a tough task, they are good! Arguably one of the best defenses in the country, but will their slow shooting affect them from making any kind of run or for this matter even getting past the 1st round. This game is a strong pass for me.
Play- Strong PASS
13 Iona vs 4 Connecticut -9 (O/U 141) 4:30pm ET
Let’s start with UConn, everyone’s favorite 4 seed to make a big run, including mine to make the Elite 8. They rank top 10 offensively and defensively, specifically their defense is what stands out to me. Playing in the high scoring Big East is one tough assignment. Somehow they have held teams to 41% shooting, 30% from beyond the arc and giving up an unimaginable 22 made field goals per game. Now on offense they’re pretty good too, crashing the boards at 11.8 per game as well as averaging 17.3 assists per game. This previously ranked #1 team in the country started the season 14-0, also beat #1 overall seed in the tournament Alabama, but then stumbled to a 2-6 stretch. Dropping them in the ranking as well as seeding.
Now they have to face Rick Pitino’s Gael’s who have won 14 in a row, but have not faced a juggernaut like UConn all season. Playing the underdog role is rare for them, being favorites in 24 straight games. 9.5 points or more in 16 of 21, and 12 points or more in 10 of 21. I believe their weak schedule will hurt them in this scenario and will be Rick Pitino’s last game as a Gael.
Play- UConn -9 (Caesars -110) 1.25 units
Denver, CO
11 Arizona St/Nevada vs 6 TCU N/A
14 Grand Canyon vs 3 Gonzaga -15.5 (O/U 155.5) 7:35pm ET
The high scoring, hot hand WAC champs take on a hungry Gonzaga squad who look to avenge an early round exit just last season. Over is the Antelopes middle name(not literally), going over in 24 of their 32 games, as well as going over in 19 of their 24 night games. Now they face the #1 offense in the country in FG% and FG’s made.
We have seen the Zags struggle vs this type of team recently in the Dons of San Francisco. The Dons connected on 14 threes and kept it close for most of the game. With it being a 2 point game at the 10:00 minute mark and a 5 point game at the 6:36 mark. If GC can keep its hot shooting going and keep it close, I see the over coming in fairly easily.
Play- over 155.5 (PointsBet -110) 0.7 unit
