We got the redemption we wanted last night, going 2-0 in under bets on the Suns/Clippers’ game four. That contest totaled only 164 points, so I dare say our analysis was dead on. Tonight’s series is a tad more volatile but I like a few angles to keep our win streak alive. Onto my picks!
Hawks win (+150), 1 unit and
Bucks/Hawks 1st half over 110 (-115), 2 units and
Trae Young over 29.5 (-122), 1.5 units:
The most dominant side of the Bucks was on full display 2 nights ago as the former MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo and his supporting cast blew out the Hawks in game two. Gaining a 30+ point lead by half time, it really wasn’t much of a game for the final 24 minutes. It also blew up all of our prop bets. That’s okay, these things happen, and I expect a different result Sunday. The Bucks are not only the better team on paper but functionally they have the best player on the court in Antetokounmpo and a much deeper and more experienced team. We get that.
But what we also get is that the Hawks are extremely resilient. Other Hawks’ series have looked like this. Atlanta was beat handily by the Knicks at MSG in game two. In games two and three against the Sixers, the Hawks lost by 16 points in each contest. And what did Atlanta do? Bow down? Call it quits? Nope. Trae Young followed it up with huge games, both in points and assists, and the Hawks took back the series momentum. The Bucks are well-balanced and capable of blowing out any NBA team when they’re at their best. When they’re not at their best, they’re clumsy. Middleton can be wildly inconsistent, Giannis can’t be counted on to make free throws, Jrue Holiday isn’t always this aggressive and other skill players like PJ Tucker and Brook Lopez can’t solely hold the team on their shoulders. The crowd at State Farm Arena will be absolutely raucous for game three and I think Trae, Collins, Capela and others will feast off the energy.
I also think the offenses will keep winning the on-court battle in this series. I like the over for the full game too but I like the first half even more. A new environment and new nerves will set in for Milwaukee but I don’t think that’ll stop them from scoring. Like I said in my first article on the first game in this series, I really like how both offenses match up. The Bucks are too big and strong for Atlanta and the Hawks are too young and athletic for the Bucks. Of course the boat-race that took place Friday was a good example of what Milwaukee can do when firing on all cylinders but the Hawks won’t look that vulnerable on Sunday. The greats always redeem themselves in the next game and yes, I consider Trae young among the “great” players in the NBA right now (and I don’t consider many in that category). Expect a ton of points right from the onset as both teams attempt to impose their will with their unique offensive styles. As the game wanes on, defensive adjustments could slow down the pace and production, thus my play on the first half total only.
Do I think it’s likely that the opposite narrative will unfold Sunday and the Hawks will overwhelm and demolish the Bucks? Not necessarily. But do I think there’s a better chance of that happening than what we saw Friday night? Absolutely. This game should be way more entertaining, Trae will return to form, and I like the Hawks to remind Milwaukee why they shouldn’t be taken lightly once again. Buckle up.
