I was pretty shocked to see the result of last night’s Western Conference Finals game between the Clippers and Suns. Paul George had a great game and, as usual, when LAC shoots to their potential (54.8% from the field), they’re really difficult to beat. Now that series will return to the Staples Center and once again the Clippers have begun their comeback tour. Get the popcorn ready. Tonight, a pivotal game four between the final two Eastern Conference contenders awaits. Here are my picks!
Hawks First QTR +2 (-115), 1.5 units and
Hawks/Bucks under 219 (-110), 1 unit and
Lean Bucks -7 (-110):
First of all, let’s calm down about Khris Middleton. He was surgical in game three, no doubt, but Middleton as a basketball player is akin to a bag of Doritos. Sometimes you get the chips caked with flavoring and they blow you away– that’s the best. Most of the time there’s some flavoring but you’re really just searching for the heavily coated chips. And then other times, the Dorito looks like it completely missed the assembly line; it’s literally just a triangular potato. That’s the story of Khris Middleton. He wows us sometimes, he’s absolutely horrible sometimes, and most of the time he’s a pretty good #2 beside Giannis. I won’t be betting on it but I’d be careful to be too bullish on his point prop in this game. Though at 23.5 (the under is -120), it appears the books agree.
Secondly, if Trae Young’s injured foot means he’ll be significantly limited, this series is over. The Hawks are not the Suns– if Devin Booker or Chris Paul goes down, the Suns have plenty of talent and team cohesion to still win. They’ve proven as much. The Hawks need Trae Young to beat the Bucks. He’s their leader, their number one scorer, and he’s usually their main facilitator (Trae averaged 9.4 assists in the regular season and has led the Hawks in assists in 12/15 postseason games). Although he’s officially listed as “questionable,” I’m sure he’ll play. The designation only worries me because of what it means for Trae on the court. Typically when someone’s questionable it means the injury is serious enough that if he does play, he wouldn’t be the same version of himself. That doesn’t bode well for Atlanta. The line has grown to -7 in favor of Milwaukee, which tells me the books are anticipating a different Trae. Remember, the Hawks are at home and they desperately need this game, so for this number to climb that high– yikes. To me it’s a sell sign on the Hawks. I’ll lean the Bucks -7 but since I’m still unsure how bothered and limited Trae will be, I can’t put any units on that.
Despite all the drama with Trae’s injury, I still like them to win or keep it very close in the first quarter. We saw what happened in game three– the Hawks instantly overwhelmed the Bucks and went up by double digits. They ended up scoring 32 points and winning the 1st quarter by a 5 point margin. It’s clear that Milwaukee thinks they’re the superior team here and they’re probably right. Unfortunately they tend to fall asleep at the wheel because of that notion, so another slow start wouldn’t shock me. While I’m not sure the Hawks will have as strong of a first 12 minutes as they did Sunday, I think it’ll be solid enough to hit a +2 bet. The State Farm Arena affect is a real thing; that crowd will make a difference early.
Lastly, I expect this game to be more contentious than the other three and to me, that means the defenses have an advantage. Trae could be limited, Middleton won’t have another superstar performance, and game four already has a must-win feel. Remember game four between the Suns and Clippers? Remember the result (84-80)? This game will have the same war-time level of intensity and despite not showing it for huge chunks of the season, both of these teams are capable of playing excellent defense. I like the under, too.
