This should be some good primetime TV as the #3 seeded Bucks travel to the Barclays Center to take on Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and James Harden of the surging Nets. Here are my best bets and predictions for game 1:
Bucks 1Q +1 (-115) 1 unit, &
Bucks +4 (-110), 1.5 units &
Bucks/Nets under 240 (-110), 1.5 units —
I think we’re getting really good value on Milwaukee tonight. The loaded and confident Brooklyn Nets head into the 2nd round of the playoffs after a nice 4-1 series defeat of the Celtics. While that’s marginally impressive, it’s what we expected. The Bucks are the hotter and more rested team. Clobbering last year’s Eastern Conference Champions with revenge on the mind, Milwaukee heads into the 2nd round with little doubt in how far they can go. And while the Nets have upped their defensive game lately, they haven’t fared well historically against Giannis Antetokounmpo.
The Greek-freak and his supporting cast won’t be afraid of the “big 3” or the enigmatic energy surrounding the Nets this year. In 3 games between these two titans during the regular season, Milwaukee was the victor in 2 of those contests. In those 3 matchups, Giannis had 34, 49, and 36 points. Of course and as always, you have to put an asterisk by Nets games in-season since the big 3 didn’t play together very much. Still, I think you could make an argument that Milwaukee is the better team. Based on what I’ve seen this year and what we know about the Bucks in big games, I like their defense to play considerably better than what Brooklyn can offer. On the other end of the court, I don’t think the difference in offensive quality is that disparate either. Sure it’s hard to compete with Harden and Durant and Kyrie from a pure shooting perspective, but Milwaukee has ego-less role players and talent at every position. From Middleton to Holiday to Lopez and beyond, they’re a deep roster with a ton of time playing together. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Nets show a lack of chemistry in game one against a new opponent.
And that’s another reason why I like the under. Even during the regular season, a total of 240 is huge. It’s even more glaring in the postseason. The nerves and pressure of the moment play big roles in crucial games like this, especially when both teams are looking to gain an edge and get that first win. I expect few shots to soar towards the bucket without getting contested. In fact, the only player who might be immune to that is Giannis. His size and length has proven too much in the past (just ask Durant, who was happy to compliment last year’s MVP after he completely owned him in their last battle) and I think he’ll score plenty tonight. Even with all their talent, the Nets don’t have players with the size and athleticism to stop Giannis. Good luck, Brooklyn.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Milwaukee won this series. Everyone in the media and among the NBA community is projecting a Nets’ title run. The books are too and I’m here to take advantage. Sprinkling a little cabbage on the moneyline isn’t a bad idea either. I’ll go with the Bucks to catch the Nets off guard, start hot, and at least keep this game close throughout.
