We cash our first winner of the year in Hideki Matsuyama at 14-1! Matsuyama was close to the lead throughout the entire tournament but gave us a scare on Sunday as he fought off Cameron Tringale to capture the win on his home soil. The PGA now travels to beautiful Bermuda for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. If you’re looking for star power and big names, well, this is absolutely not the tournament for you. The field is headlined by Patrick Reed, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Christiaan Bezuidenhout and up and comer Mito Pereira. Previous winners Brian Gay and Brendon Todd were both slump-busters. Brian Gay who will defend his title, captured his first win in seven years while Bredon Todd broke his five year streak. This is by no means the flashiest tournament but, offers a chance to cash in on some large odds. Another interesting note to add is that this will be the first tournament that has a cut line in three weeks.
Tournament Information:
- Dates: October 28, 2021- October 31, 2021
- Location: Southampton, Bermuda
- Course: Port Royal Golf Course
- Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
- Length: 6,828 yards
- Format: 72 hole stroke play
- Field/ Cut: 132 Players | Top 65 and ties after 36 Holes
- Greens: TifEagle Bermudagrass .130″
- Fairways: 419 Bermudagrass .500″
- Rough: 419/ St. Augustine/ zoysia 2″
- Stimpmeter: 11 feet
- Purse: $6,500,000 / Winner $1.17 Million
- FedEx Cup Points: 500
- Bunkers: 88
- Water Hazards: 4 (In-Play: 5 Holes)
- Scoring Average:
- 2020: 71.15 (+0.15)
- 2019: 69.83 (-1.17)
Course History:
The inaugural Butterfield Bermuda Championship held in 2019, however it was an alternate event back then. In 2020, this event started to offer 500 FedEx Cup points and became an official event on the Tour. This year, even more is at stake with a full 2-year exemption, an invite to the 2022 Tournament of Champions and The Masters. The price pool also is $6.5 Million which is the largest the tournament has offered.
Port Royal Golf Course is one of the shortest courses on tour playing just over 6,800 yards. It’s a coastal course, so the biggest factor this week will be the wind. This Par 71 is split 36-35 featuring four Par 3’s. Out of those four Par 3’s, three of them play over 200+ yards. The longest hole on the course is Hole #2, which is a 553 yard Par 5. The other two Par 5’s are reachable in 2 (Hole #7 & Hole #17). The course is one of the easiest on tour as it’s open and short, with it’s only defense coming from the wind. We’ve seen from the past two winners that really anyone can win here, so it should be an interesting tournament.
Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:
- Course Architect: Robert Trent Jones (1970)
- Renovations:
- Robert Trent Jones (1995)
- Roger Rulewich (2008)
- Comparable Courses:
- PGA West (Palmer)
- Sea Island Resort (Plantation)
- Pebble Beach
- El Camaleon
TV Information:
- Round 1: Thursday, October 28, 2021
- Golf Channel* – 1:30 PM – 4:30 PM ET
- Round 2: Friday, October 29, 2021
- Golf Channel* – 1:30 PM – 4:30 PM ET
- Round 3: Saturday, October 30, 2021
- Golf Channel* – 1:00 PM – 4:00 PM ET
- Round 4: Sunday, October 31, 2021
- Golf Channel* – 1:00 PM – 4:00 PM ET
- Thursday: Partly Cloudy 76 F, 25 mp/h W, 68% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain
- Friday: Mostly Cloudy 77 F, 15 mp/h SSW, 68% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain
- Saturday: Thunderstorms 78 F, 16 mp/h SSW, 83% Humidity, 70% Chance of Rain
- Sunday: Thunderstorms 76 F, 20 mp/h SW, 83% Humidity, 80% Chance of Rain
Key Statistics:
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
- Stokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
- Strokes Gained: Total (High Winds)
- Greens in Regulation Percentage
- Driving Accuracy Percentage
- Scrambling
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
- 2020: Brian Gay (-15)
- Price: 200-1
- 2019: Brendon Todd (-24)
- Price: 100-1
Picks (Outright):
- Patrick Reed (+2000) – Draftkings
- Risk 0.40 to win 8.00 Units
Patrick Reed at 20-1 is downright disrespectful compared to this field. He should be motivated to get his game back on track after being left out of the US Ryder Cup team and has played well on similar courses. I wouldn’t be shocked if he went out this week and won this tournament for fun. He’s also historically been great putting on Bermudagrass and with high winds. I understand the odds are due to his recent form as he’s coming back from double pneumonia but, he should have had enough time off to figure things out. Hopefully his wife see’s this s/o @useGolfFACTS on twitter (his wife’s burner).
- Russel Knox (+4500) – Draftkings
- Risk 0.18 to win 8.10 Units
Russel Knox is one of the best, if not the best player when it comes to playing courses that have high winds. Knox has also played well at this tournament in the past with a 11th place finish in 2019, and a 16th place finish in 2020. He’s 60th on the PGA Tour in Driving Accuracy % and 68th in SG: Tee to Green. Besides his most recent finish in the Shriners where he missed the cut, he’s been in good form. He finished T58 at the Fortinet and T29 at the Sanderson Farms.
- Denny McCarthy (+5000) – Draftkings
- Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units
Looking at this field and event history, it’s truly anyone’s tournament to win. However, McCarthy is a standout to me given his previous finishes in this tournament. In 2019, he finished 15th and in 2020 he finished 4th. He is also one of the best wind players on Tour which is going to play a major factor, as the wind is predicted to be between 15-25 MPH all days. The course features three 200+ yard Par 3’s which McCarthy ranks in the Top 10 of that category. Denny McCarthy is 24th on Tour for Driving Accuracy %, 48th for Greens in Regulation %, and 27th in Scrambling. As if that wasn’t enough, Denny McCarthy is one of the best putters on Bermudagrass.
- Ryan Armour (+5500) – Draftkings
- Risk 0.15 to win 8.25 Units
This will be the third time that Ryan Armour has played in this event, finishing 8th in both his previous appearances. Going to be honest here, he hasn’t been in great form but, these coastal courses have seemed to fit him well in the past.
- Matthew NeSmith (+10000) – Draftkings
- Risk 0.08 to win 8.00 Units
Like McCarthy, Matthew NeSmith is one of the best wind players on tour. While NeSmith isn’t one of the best players off the tee, he is 5th on Tour in SG: Approach. This will be the first time he plays in this event, but has been in decent form as of late. He finished T51 in the Fortinet, T14 in the Shriners, and T48 in the Zozo.
- Graeme McDowell (+10000) – Draftkings
- Risk 0.08 to win 8.00 Units
Graeme McDowell currently ranks 1st on Tour in Driving Accuracy % which is crucial on the course as seen from previous winners. He’s not the longest hitter by any means but, on this course it doesn’t matter. Historically he’s been great on these short coastal courses so I’m sticking with that trend here.
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.05 Units
For these early tournaments, I wont have to many plays and will try to keep the unit stake small. It’s a long season so you don’t want to risk your whole bankroll early.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
