Cadence Bank Houston Open – Preview & Picks

Congrats to everyone who backed Russell Henley last week at the World Wide Technologies Championship at Mayakoba. He had a massive lead heading into the final round and was able to hold on finishing 23 under. This was his fourth career PGA Tour victory with his last one coming back in 2017 at this week’s event, the Houston Open.

We went even in terms of the placement market last week but finished down slightly as we failed to cash on the winner. Taylor Montgomery, Collin Morikawa, and Nick Hardy all finished inside the top 21 but none could catch Henley.

The Houston Open debuted on Tour over 75 years ago, back in 1946. However, this will only be the third time it’s held at the current venue, Memorial Park Golf Course. The course has ranked near one of the toughest on Tour so it should be a great test for the players in the field. Scottie Scheffler, Tony Finau, and Sam Burns are the main headliners this week with all of them having some solid course history here.

 

Tournament Information:

• Dates: November 10th, 2022- November 13th, 2022
• Location: Houston, Texas, United States
• Course: Memorial Park Golf Course
• Course Type: Parklands
• Par: 70 (5x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
• Length: 7,412 yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: MiniVerde bermudagrass .100″
• Fairways: 419 bermudagrass .500″
• Rough: 419 bermudagrass 2.50″
• Bunkers: 19
• Water Hazards: 2 (In-Play on 4 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 7,000 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 12-12.5 ft.
• Purse/ Winner: $8,400,000/$1,512,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 500
• Field/ Cut: 132 Players | Top 65 and Ties – 36 Holes
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2021: 70.80 (+0.80), Rank 9 of 50
  • 2020: 71.03 (+1.03), Rank 8 of 51
• Historic Cut Line:
  • 2021: +1
  • 2020: +3

Comparable Courses & Greens:

TV Information:

• Round 1: Thursday, November 10th, 2022
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 4:00 PM
• Round 2: Friday, November 11th, 2022
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 4:00 PM
• Round 3: Saturday, November 12th, 2022
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 4:00 PM
• Round 4: Sunday, November 13th, 2022
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 4:00 PM

 

Weather:

• Thursday: Partly Cloudy 73 F, 8 mp/h SE, 73% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
• Friday: Partly Cloudy 63 F, 11 mp/h NNW, 73% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: AM Showers 53 F, 12 mp/h NNE, 53% Humidity, 40% Chance of Rain
• Sunday: PM Showers 51 F, 11 mp/h E, 54% Humidity, 40% Chance of Rain

 

Course/ Tournament History:

The Houston Open will take place at Memorial Park Golf Course for just the third time. In 2019 the Astros Foundation donated $34 million to revamp Memorial Park under the leadership of Tom Doak.

Before 2020, this tournament was played at the Golf Club of Houston. Two years ago this tournament took place a week before the Masters due to the COVID-19 schedule changes. However this year, it’s the second to last PGA Tour Event in the Fall season.

This is also the first year that Cadence Bank will take over the sponsorship rights. The prize pool has been increased to $8.4 Million from $7.5 Million.

72-Hole Record (Memorial Park): 267, Carlos Ortiz (2020)

18-Hole Record (Memorial Park): 62, Scottie Scheffler (Round 2, 2021)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

After a couple of weeks of short courses, we finally arrive at Memorial Park Golf Course. Memorial is a particularly long course that plays just over 7,400 yards and places an emphasis on Strokes Gained Off the Tee. We always talk about how the long hitters have an advantage but they especially do here. Memorial played as the 9th toughest venue on tour last year which correlates to the scoring average.

This is a municipal course so if you’re ever in the Houston area, feel free to go check it out. When describing the course, it’s fairly open off the tee with generous fairways. The fairways are tree-lined however, they are a ways back. The rough is fairly penalizing and can bury the ball forcing a less-than-ideal approach shot. Memorial only has 19 bunkers that don’t play much of a factor. Most of the bunkers were eliminated during the 2019 renovation.

Memorial has five Par 3’s that are relatively long with the most difficult playing 237 yards (Hole #11). Last year, only one of the Par 3’s had a scoring average under par (Hole #15).

No. 15 is a short Par 3 that’s proclaimed as the “loudest hole in Texas.” While it only plays 156 yards, it is a fairly tough hole. It has a small green so there’s not a lot of room to land the ball safely. If players do miss right there is a small run-off area but, a miss left can mean trouble as water does come into play.

The length is the main factor here with eight of the ten Par 4’s playing over 440 yards. Out of these eight Par 4’s, two of them are over 500 yards (Holes #1 and #18).

No. 17 is one of the most unique holes on the course. The fairway runs along the retention pond and almost forms an “S” shape. While it is a short Par 4, two precise shots are required to hit the green in regulation. Any approach shot that misses right of the green can mean trouble as it slopes towards the pond.

All three of the Par 5’s are very long and provide a scoring advantage for long players. Like last year, birdie opportunities will be hard to come by and must be taken advantage of.

No. 16 is a long Par 5 that forces players into weighing the risk-reward of going for this tough green in two. Off the tee, players will try to use the downslope to their advantage making their approach shot easier. The green itself is surrounded by water on three sides with no room for error. Even if players hit the green on their approach, the ball can find the water given the false front on the left side.

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 15, 17

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
• Driving Distance
• Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards
• Proximity: 200-225 Yards
• Scrambling
• Comparable Courses and Event History

 

The Field/ Odds:

132 Players will compete in the Cadence Bank Houston Open at Memorial Park GC this week. Nine of the world’s top 50 players will be in the field.

• Scottie Scheffler (+550), has played twice this year finishing T45 at the CJ Cup and T3 at the WWT Championship at Mayakoba. At the Houston Open, he’s finished T28/ T32/ T2.
• Sam Burns (+1200), has played twice so far this season finishing T7 at the CJ Cup and T30 at the Sanderson Farms Championship. This will be his fourth appearance at the Houston Open. He missed the cut in his debut but finished T7 in the past two years.
• Tony Finau (+1600), will make his first start of the PGA Tour season. His last unofficial start was at the President’s Cup. Last year at the Houston Open he missed the cut but before that, he finished T24 in back-to-back years.
• Aaron Wise (+1600), has made three starts this year finishing T64/ 6/ T15. He’s made three starts at the Houston Open finishing T32/ T11/ T26.

 

Previous Winners in the field: Russell Henley (’17), Jim Herman (’16)

Notable Withdraws: Brendon Todd, Vince Whaley, Nate Lashley, Sam Ryder

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.

 

Horses for Courses (@ Memorial Park – 2020, 2021):

• Maverick McNealy: T20/ T19
• Sam Burns: T7/ T7
• Adam Long: T11/ T11
• Scottie Scheffler: T32/ T2
• Aaron Wise: T11/ T26
• Sepp Straka: T5/ MC
• Denny McCarthy: T38/ T11
• Russell Henley: T29/ T7
• Scott Piercy: T32/ T19

 

Donkeys for Courses (@ Memorial Park – 2020, 2021):

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a particular course/tournament.

• Jason Dufner: MC/ MC
• Martin Laird: MC/ MC
• Sam Ryder: MC/ MC
• Stewart Cink: MC/ MC
• Jimmy Walker: MC/ MC
• Danny Willett: WD/ MC

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

• 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10) @ Memorial Park
  • Price: 50-1
• 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13) @ Memorial Park
  • Price: 160-1
• 2019: Lanto Griffin (-14) @ Redstone Golf Course
  • Price: 60-1
• 2018: Ian Poulter (-19) @ Redstone Golf Course
  • Price: 100-1
• 2017: Russell Henley (-20) @ Redstone Golf Course
  • Price: 40-1

 

Previous Winners Recent Form going into the Houston Open:

• 2021: Jason Kokrak
  • Recent Form: T54/ MC/ T11/ T15/ MC

• 2020: Carlos Ortiz
  • Recent Form: T35/ T48/ MC/ MC/ T46

 

Picks (Outrights):

• Sam Burns (+1400) – Caesars
  • Risk 0.58 to win 8.12 Units

Sam ‘Bermuda’ Burns has finished T7 in his last two appearances at Memorial Park GC. Burn’s also seems to love Texas golf as he won the Charles Schwab Challenge and finished runner-up at the AT&T Byron Nelson last year. He’s played twice so far this season finishing T30 at the Sanderson Farms Championship and T7 at the CJ cup.

Burns has everything you’re looking for in an outright this week outside his ball-striking ability. I’m hoping his putting can make up for his sub-par approach play. However, he’s shown that when he does gain strokes in this category he can compete with anyone. Burns’ has also seemed to thrive on these tougher golf courses as well. His distance off the tee should also provide him with an advantage this week. As I mentioned above, if he can gain strokes on approach, he should be in contention come Sunday.

• Taylor Montgomery (+2900) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.28 to win 8.12 Units

Taylor Montgomery will make his debut at Memorial Park this week. Despite not laying here before, he’s a great course fit. It feels like he’s so close to a win given his recent performances. In his first five starts of the season, he’s finished 3/ T9/ T15/ T13/ T10.

He’s got the distance off the tee, and his putting has been phenomenal, specifically on Bermudagrass, with the only real downside coming with his iron play. Despite ranking 139th on SG: Approach this year, he does have some upside. If we look deeper into the number’s he’s great from 200+ yards out which they’ll be playing from a lot this week given the length of this course. Montgomery is also 10th in Par 4 Scoring Average and 36th in Par 5 Scoring Average. If he can dial in those irons this week he should have a great shot.

• Jason Day (+3300) – BetMGM/ Caesars
  • Risk 0.25 to win 8.25 Units

If I’m not mistaken this is my first time backing Jason Day. While he is a five-time PGA Tour winner, his last victory was back in 20188 at the Wells Fargo Championship. However, he’s seemed to have a resurgence in his game finishing T8, T11, and T21 in his last three starts. Last year at the Houston Open he finished T54 but the year before he placed T7.

The major concern for Day this week is his ability on the green. He currently ranks 108th in SG: Putting. Despite that, he has gained strokes on the green at Memorial Park in his last two appearances. Day also had his best-putting performance of the year at the CJ Cup which is also bermudagrass. His approach play has been the biggest difference from last year. He ranks 6th on Tour and has gained over a stroke in that category in each of his last three starts. While this number may be a little low, this seems like a great time to back given everything I mentioned.

Just Missed: Russell Henley, Adam Long, Denny McCarthy, Davis Riley, Alex Smalley

Total Risk on Outright Placements: 1.11 Units

 

Picks (Top 5):

• Scottie Scheffler (+180) – Bet365
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.80 Units

In all honesty, this is Scottie Scheffler’s tournament to lose. If he can win the Houston Open, he’ll overtake Rory McIlroy as the number-one player in the world. The only issue I have is I just can’t play him outright at that number (+550). So consider this a little “hedge” situation where we can capitalize on him even if he does end up winning.

Last week, he finished T3 at the WWT Championship at Mayakoba. In his only other start this season, he finished T45 at the CJ Cup. He’s played at Memorial Park GC twice, placing T32 in 2020 and T2 in 2021. Scheffler’s also been unbelievable in Texas where he went to school finishing 2nd at the Charles Schwab Challenge, T15 at the AT&T Byron Nelson, and winning the WGC-Dell technologies match play event last year.

He has everything you’re looking for this week with his putting being the only real concern. However, as we saw last year plenty of times he doesn’t necessarily need to putt well to have a great finishing position. If he does gain strokes on the green, he should win this event by three to four shots. Given the semi weak field and everything I just mentioned, he seems like he should be able to grab a top-5 finish this week.

Total Risk on Top 5 Placements: 1.00 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

• Aaron Wise (+105) – Bet365
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.05 Units

Aaron Wise’s lone PGA Tour win came in Texas at the AT&T Byron Nelson in 2017-18. This year he’s played well finishing 6th and T15 in his last two starts. In terms of course history, he finished T11 in 2020 and T26 in 2021.

His distance off the tee will certainly give him an advantage this week. Overall, he ranks 85th in SG: Off the Tee this year. His approach play can be worrisome at times but his short game and putting have been fantastic through his first three starts of the season. However, he’s seemed to play well here with his irons gaining strokes on approach in his last two visits to Memorial Park GC. Wise also gained nearly a stroke over the field on approach at the CJ Cup. He’s had success at this course in the past and it seems to suit his game so he should have another great finish this week.

• Maverick McNealy (+137) – Bet365
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.37 Units

Maverick McNealy is still in search of his first career PGA Tour victory but based on his recent form, that looks to be just around the corner. He started the season missing the cut at the Fortinet Championship but has rebounded nicely. Since that missed cut, he’s finished T10/ T12/ T18/ T10 in his last four starts on Tour. He’s played at Memorial Park GC twice before in this event finishing T11 and T26. McNealy also has some impressive course history in Texas as well finishing inside the top 40 at the AT&T Byron Nelson, Valero Texas Open, and WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play event last season.

He’s one of the longest hitters off the tee ranking 54th in driving distance on Tour this year. While his approach game and play around the green isn’t near the top of the leaderboard, he’s fantastic with the flat stick. McNealy currently ranks 4th on Tour in SG: Putting. He’s gained strokes on the green in each of the past two years at Memorial. Even more surprising is that he’s gained strokes off the tee and on approach in those previous two starts as well. Given his recent form and great course history, he seems primed to grab his third consecutive top-20 finish at this course.

Just Missed: Joel Dahmen

Total Risk on Top 20 Placements: 2.00 Units

 

Picks (Top 40):

• Sepp Straka (+110) – DraftKings
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.10 Units

We caught Sepp Straka last year at the Honda Classic where he won his first PGA Tour event. Since that victory, his play has been trending in the right direction. Last week, he did miss the cut at the WWT Championship at Mayakoba. In his three other starts this season he’s finished 2/ T45/ T62. He has some decent course history here as well finishing 4th back in 2020.

This year he ranks 82nd in SG: Off the Tee, 57th in SG: Approach, 46th in SG: Putting, and 66th in SG: Tee to Green. He seems to enjoy the bermudagrass gaining strokes on the green at the Sanderson Farms Championship, Tour Championship, and the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Last year when he missed the cut at this event it was mainly due to his putting. However, that doesn’t seem to be the case anymore based on his recent play.

Just Missed: Dean Burmester, Wyndham Clark

Total Risk on Top 40 Placements: 1.00 Units

 

Total Risk on the Cadence Bank Houston Open: 5.11 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.