It’s Conference Championship week, and I’ve got 6 plays loaded up for what should be a great weekend of CFB. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*CFB(1u): Utah TT OVER 31.5 vs USC–Friday 7 PM CT
Fading USC this season has not been a profitable endeavor because they do, after all, have the most talented offense in CFB. For that reason alone, I’m going to isolate Utah’s offense in this matchup. With that said, I think the success we saw Utah have against USC earlier this season(43 points, 562 yards, 424 yards passing) is quite repeatable. USC has found a way to create turnovers at the most opportune times imaginable, but let’s not get it twisted; this is not a Top 100 defense in College Football.
Many people saw USC pull away from Notre Dame last week and took away only positives from the Trojans’ performance. If you kept watching, however, you would notice that DREW PYNE went 23/26 through the air at over 12 Y/A against this USC secondary. And it wasn’t a fluke; Jack Plummer of Cal hung over 400 yards on this USC defense, while Emory Jones and Jayden de Laura also had efficient days. Utah QB Cam Rising has made some very poor decisions in crucial moments this season, but I think the turnover concerns are a bit overblown; he has only thrown 12 INT’s over the last 2 seasons and holds a TD/INT ratio greater than 3:1 in that time frame. I’m down on Utah’s run game this season and think USC can contain Tavion Thomas and co, but in my opinion, that’s only going to force Utah to be more aggressive through the air. Despite attempting 44 passes, Cam Rising wasn’t sacked at all in his first matchup with USC. I expect Rising to account for 4-5 TD’s by himself and get the Utes into the mid-to-upper 30’s.
I haven’t seen the consistency out of Utah’s defense to trust them stepping up against an elite offense like USC. I don’t think the Over is a terrible look, but I don’t want to mess with the other side of the matchup. Utah is familiar with this stage, and I think they consistently take advantage of a vulnerable Trojans secondary.
*CFB(1u): Kansas State +2.5 vs TCU–Saturday 11 AM CT
*CFB(1u): Kansas State/TCU UNDER 62–Saturday 11 AM CT
TCU’s offense is more “explosive” than “consistent”. Take their win at Texas, for example. 2 chunk plays accounted for 37% of their yards output, and then they were absolutely dominated the rest of the way. Give them credit for continuing to find ways to win, but the recipe is simply not sustainable. They knocked 4 separate starting QB’s out of the game, all of which had a massive impact on the game flow. Even last week’s 62-14 win vs Iowa State was very fluky, as they only out-gained the Cyclones by 47 yards.
TCU QB Max Duggan has had a fantastic season, but I don’t love this matchup for him. Kansas State’s strength defensively is their secondary, and I think they have the horses to match up well with the talent on the outside for TCU. Duggan has been especially good at connecting on the deep ball, but he gets significantly worse in the short-to-intermediate passing game. I expect Kansas State to play a “bend don’t break” approach and force the Horned Frogs to consistently sustain drives. RB Kendre Miller is a HR hitting back, and you might see him break off a chunk-run or two, but I don’t believe he’s going to consistently thrash Kansas State in the run game. I also think TCU’s OL is vulnerable. They’ve allowed 4 or more sacks on 4 separate occasions this season, including their first meeting against Kansas State.
Kansas State QB Will Howard has given the Wildcats a level of consistency as a passer(9.3 Y/A) that they simply didn’t have with Adrian Martinez at the helm. We know what RB Deuce Vaughn can do in the run game, and the Wildcats are far better along their OL than TCU. TCU’s defense has stepped up big time in some of their bigger matchups(specifically @ Texas), but I don’t think their overly consistent in their Back 7. Aside from that Texas game, the Horned Frogs have consistently allowed the run to get established. Howard threw for over 11 Y/A on the Horned Frogs in their first meeting, and Baylor QB Blake Shapen threw for 9 Y/A on this unit just 2 weeks ago.
Ultimately, I think Kansas State will do just enough to limit explosive plays to hold the Horned Frogs at bay. I also like the Under here; TCU is not the fast-paced team that people think, and Kansas State will assuredly want to control the clock in this matchup. I would’ve made this number 58. Call it a 31-27 Kansas State win.
*CFB(1u): Georgia -17.5 vs LSU–Saturday 3 PM CT
If you’ve been following me this year, you’ll know that this is in no way reactionary to last week’s dud from LSU. I’ve HATED this LSU team all season. We faded them against Tennessee; winner. We faded them at Auburn; winner. We faded them at Arkansas; winner. And, we faded them last week against Texas A&M; emphatic winner. This team has far too many glaring weaknesses to hang with Georgia for 4 quarters.
With LSU’s offense, it all starts up front. Their OL has been a major weakness all season, allowing 4+ sacks on 6(!) separate occasions. That has had a negative effect on the Tigers’ vertical passing game, as QB Jayden Daniels has thrown for less than 7.5 Y/A. While Daniels has been a major threat with his legs, he got injured last week and will be playing at far less than 100%. Even if LSU features Daniels in the run game, remember that Georgia bottled up a far more dangerous offense in Tennessee a few weeks ago. Georgia has the best defense in College Football that is very trustworthy at all 3 levels, and they will dominate in this matchup.
Georgia QB Stetson Bennett is not having the same success in the vertical passing game he was a year ago, and I don’t think the Bulldogs are elite in the run game. With that said, their ability to win up front is going to be very apparent in this matchup. Too much stock has been put into LSU’s one-off pass rushing performance vs Arkansas; if you can’t record a sack vs a depleted Texas A&M OL, I’m not going to trust you against Georgia. I think the Tigers can match up fine in the run game(although they slipped vs A&M last week), but with the time I expect Bennett to have, I think LSU’s secondary will get slowly picked apart. While Georgia’s offense might not look sexy, they still rank Top 5 in yards/play for a reason.
Even if LSU hangs tough defensively, they have no ability to play complimentary football in this matchup. Call it a 38-13 Georgia win with the potential to be far uglier.
*CFB(1u): UCF TT UNDER 26.5 @ Tulane–Saturday 3 PM CT
When these teams met up a few weeks ago, UCF hung up 38 by riding the legs of QB John Rhys Plumlee. For a variety of reasons, I don’t think that formula is repeatable. First off, Plumlee exited last week’s game vs USF with a hamstring injury and, if he does play, will be significantly hindered. Secondly, I refuse to believe Tulane is going to be beaten in the same fashion twice.
Tulane’s run defense has slipped over the last few weeks, but I haven’t downgraded this unit as much as some. This is still the same unit that held Frank Gore Jr, Deuce Vaughn, and Keaton Mitchell to below average days on the ground. I don’t love what UCF has at RB. RB1 Isaiah Bowser is under 4 YPC on the season yet still gets a majority of the workload; while RJ Harvey provides much more explosiveness, I still think the Green Wave will do enough to contain him. Whether it’s Plumlee or Mikey Keene at QB for UCF, Tulane will do everything they can to make UCF beat them through the air. Tulane’s secondary has been rock solid all season, and I think they hold a clear advantage over UCF’s WR core. UCF has had some high high’s offensively, but they have also been held to 14 or less on 3 separate occasions.
I would lean towards laying the points with Tulane at home because I think their run game will wear down UCF over the course of 4 quarters. However, I do think UCF can limit explosion through the air well and keep this a lower scoring game. I don’t see UCF getting past 24, and they very well could be held into the teens.
*CFB(1u): Clemson -7.5 vs North Carolina–Saturday 7 PM CT
Nobody wants to trust Clemson after last week, and I get it. QB DJ Uiagaleilei had a historically bad game, and the Clemson secondary got exposed by Spencer Rattler and co. With that said, context matters. South Carolina’s main strength defensively was in their secondary, while they saw a significant dropoff in their run defense. Why DJ was asked to throw the ball 29 times is beyond me. However, this is a dream matchup across the board for Clemson’s offense.
In addition to being very poor up front, UNC’s secondary is incredibly mediocre(that might be generous). Consider that they have been beaten by Georgia Tech’s 3rd string QB and North Carolina State’s 4th string QB in the last 2 weeks alone. For however bad you think DJ is, he is far better than either one of those aforementioned options. I do think that Clemson will come out with a major emphasis on the run game given Will Shipley received just 15 carries in last week’s loss. At 5.9 YPC on the season, Shipley is a good back that should totally dominate in this particular match up and, in turn, make DJ’s life much easier.
UNC’s offense was lethal for much of the season, but they have been exposed over the last 2 weeks. The Tar Heels haven’t gotten much out of the RB position(Drake Maye is their leading rusher), and the OL has continually struggled to protect Maye(3+ sacks on 7 separate occasions). It’s proof that, no matter how talented your passing game is, you still have to be good in other areas to consistently succeed. It’s a bit concerning to see Clemson struggle with South Carolina’s passing attack after we already saw the debacle they had at Wake Forest. With that said, knowing they will totally dominate in their Front 7, I’m willing to take my chances with them facing a “one trick pony” type of offense.
Two things can be true: Clemson’s offense is going to struggle in their tougher matchups, AND they should have no trouble with this UNC team. Tigers win by double-digits.
