We had a winning weekend in college football and we grind on to Monday, where we have a marquee matchup between two big offenses. Here’s my pick:
Louisville +9.5 (-105), 1 unit and Full Game Over 74 (-115), 1.5 units: Lane Kiffin’s inaugural year as the Ole Miss football coach was better than many expected, with the program finishing 5-5 in a COVID season. Many experts have Ole Miss as the 4th best team in the SEC, a strong rating considering the fact that they were a dismal 4-8 just two years ago. Lane Kiffin tested positive for COVID and will be held off-site for this contest. I’m not sure how much of a difference that’ll make; I’m sure his coaches are well prepped, but it’s surely something to consider. Behind quarterback Matt Corral, who was the main catalyst behind a n incredible 562.4 yards per game last for the Rebels (an SEC record, by the way), the Ole Miss offense should be just as explosive as ever in 2021.
Louisville returns senior quarterback Malik Cunningham, whose speed and athleticism are almost always an issue for opposing defenses. Cunningham threw for 2,617 yards last year and ran for another 609 yards for a combined 27 touchdowns. Sophomore tight end Marshon Ford, who had 309 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns in his freshman year, looks to continue making waves on a loaded Cardinals offense. The Louisville defense overperformed last year and they’ll be without half of its starters from a season ago. While they probably won’t be as talented, there’s no sure-fire evidence to suggest that their defensive capability will just fall off a cliff this year. That’s the kind of predictive analysis that’s entirely bogus (and you’ll hear/read it from other “experts”); we simply don’t know what they’ll look like on defense this season. On offense, they should be just as capable (if not more capable behind more experienced skill players).
This feels like an offensive takeover. Two teams eager to prove their prowess on that side of the ball, with electric and nearly unstoppable athletes on both sides, gives me confidence that any early-game nerves will quickly subside and turn into points, and often. I’ll put 1.5 units on the over and another unit on Louisville keeping it close– Cunningham vs. Corral is a matchup I can’t wait to watch!
