Ladies and gentleman, we made it! Football season is officially here as we enter the REAL Week 1 of the college football season! Stadium lights will shine bright all over the nation as we kick off what should be an entertaining (and we’re praying, a more normal) season on the gridiron. Here’s my take on a huge big-10 showdown on Thursday night:
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Ohio State -14 (-110), 1.5 units: The mighty Ohio State Buckeyes will look different this year without Justin Fields and other key skill players that made their 2020 team so dominant. Exempting their loss to Alabama in the National Title game, Ohio State beat all 7 of their 2020 opponents by an average of 21.4 points. They had a top 10 offense and a bend-don’t-break defense, which led to a 4-4 ATS record. Of course, in a COVID year with limited fans, it’s hard to evaluate how much weight any ATS records carry into this season. We’ll monitor that moving forward.
Ohio State lost a ton of talented players in the draft– 10 to be exact– but that’s nothing unusual for one of the nation’s premiere organizations. The Buckeyes are no doubt a reload and revamp operation and we have little reason to believe 2021 will look much different. CJ Stroud will take over for Fields as Ohio State’s quarterback and while he may need time to grow, the size, talent, and football IQ is all there. If things get murky, he’d have to compete with high-school sensation Quinn Ewers– who left HS early to get a head-start on his football career– and redshirt Freshman Jack Miller isn’t out of the mix either. Regardless, the Buckeyes have a tremendous amount of talent across their offense once again. Their primary receiving target, Chris Olave, is back for another year and they’re loaded with new stars at RB, WR, TE, and along their OL. The defense will lose some of its depth but they have plenty of eager young athletes ready to make an impact.
P.J. Fleck and his Minnesota Gophers get a great spot, at home, against one of the nation’s best teams to start their reason. They’ll be AMPED, to say the least, and I expect that Minnesota crowd to make a difference early.
The main reason I’m fading Minnesota is because of their style of play. On paper, not much should change this year. The Gophers rely on a formidable running attack behind an exceptional offensive line– which they still have– and they like to manage the game behind a slow, cerebral attack. Quarterback Tanner Morgan is serviceable but his numbers have regressed with experience, which is typically not a great sign. He’s a game manager, at best. Their style of play can work early against a new-look Ohio State team that needs more experience on the field, but eventually OSU’s talent should overwhelm the home team. Minnesota still has plenty to be concerned about on defense (they were one of the worst defenses in the Big 10 last season), and as they game trudges on, it’ll become very difficult for the Minnesota offense to stay on pace with the Buckeyes.
The sharps are definitely on Minnesota in this game and it makes sense– there’s enough uncertainty about Ohio State to favor a home dog. Still, Ohio State is clearly the more talented unit, in every aspect, and I expect them to overwhelm the Gophers in the second half of this contest. Bottom line– they have a massive advantage in talent and coaching. If you like Minnesota, take them early. The Buckeyes are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite; I expect them to cover in their opener.
