I’m 13-8, +4.75u in the CFB Postseason and am looking to finish strong with another winner tonight.
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*CFB(1u): Georgia -13 vs TCU–6:30 PM CT
None of what I’m about to say is to take away from all TCU has done to make it to this point. With that said, last week’s win over Michigan featured yet another string of improbable results that led to the win. Michigan’s JJ McCarthy threw 2 pick sixes, and the Wolverines turned the ball over inside TCU’s 5 yard-line on 2 separate occasions(one fumble on the one, one turnover on downs). Going up against this Georgia offense and a group of guys who have won on this stage, I don’t see the Horned Frogs being able to repeat that formula.
Contrary to popular belief, Georgia is a pass-first offense that is quite explosive; the Bulldogs rank 2nd in the nation in yards/play, and Stetson Bennett attempted 34 passes(for nearly 400 yards) vs Ohio State. I think this matches up quite well going against a TCU secondary that has shown cracks all season. Despite the mistakes, JJ McCarthy still threw for over 10 Y/A on this TCU secondary, and prior to that, the Horned Frogs had allowed over 11 Y/A to KSU’s Will Howard as well as 9 Y/A to Baylor’s Blake Shapen. They’ve had quite a bit of success in confusing younger QB’s(think Quinn Ewers), but that’s obviously not the role they find themselves in tonight. I’m not all that high on Georgia’s run game and actually think TCU could put up a pretty good fight against the run, but I don’t see any edge for TCU going up against a borderline elite Georgia OL. While the run defense has been mostly good, explosive runs continue to be an issue for this unit.
I’ve always described TCU’s offense as more “explosive” than “consistent”. I think that’s exemplified by how Max Duggan has played this postseason; against both Kansas State and Michigan, Duggan completed 50% or less of his passes but was able to generate some big plays down the field. If you look at Georgia’s last 2 games, perhaps you could believe that Duggan should have no problem creating downfield explosion against this Georgia secondary. Personally, I haven’t forgotten how silly this Georgia secondary made two of the best offenses in CFB(Oregon, Tennessee) look throughout various portions of the season. As a Buckeye bettor last week, I simply believed Ohio State had the horses in their passing game to match up with a very good defense. Regardless of your concern level with this UGA secondary, it’s undeniable that this is a Top 2 run defense in CFB. TCU’s #1 RB Kendre Miller will be playing at far less than 100%, and while you have to account for an explosive run or two, I don’t see TCU finding much consistency in establishing the run. While I wouldn’t call Georgia’s pass rush the staple of their defense, I do think the Bulldogs hold a pretty clear edge in the trenches. They sacked CJ Stroud 4 times last week despite facing a very good OL, and TCU has allowed 4 or more sacks on 4 separate occasions this year.
Other plays that just missed my card were Georgia 1H -7.5 and Georgia TT OVER 38/38.5. I know TCU has fought their way back into games all season, but they also haven’t faced the perfect storm of experienced QB, explosive passing game, staunch run defense, elite OL/DL like they will tonight. I’ve backed Georgia in their biggest moments all season(expect last week) and think they pull away and win this comfortably.
