We snatched -13.5 right before the Ohio State game for premium customers, which produced a win, and we pushed here with our free pick at -14. We also hit the Buckeyes live at -2.5, which was quite the steal. Track me on Twitter for those kind of opportunities and consider signing up for my premium plays— I’ll always have MORE plays than my free picks there. Here are my FREE picks and predictions for tonight:
Duke -6.5 (-110), 1.5 units: I promise I won’t always pick favorites but I think the books are devaluing a solid favorite tonight. Charlotte is hosting it’s first ever home game against a power-5 team and we expect Jerry Richardson (who?) Stadium to be rockin’. While I respect that and I’m sure they’ll be plenty motivated, Minnesota was motivated last night too and we saw the result (aka, home-field advantage can be a tad overstated in lopsided matchups). One glaring issue for Charlotte is their big boys up front. Their offensive line ranked 104th and 116th in run/pass blocking last year. That’s against 127 other programs so, to be clear, it is NOT a good ranking. The Duke Blue Devils aren’t a premiere power-5 team but they’re very capable on defense. Duke has a legit secondary; if Charlotte’s O-line struggles and frequently allows defenders behind the line of scrimmage, how are they going to score? Led by electric running back Mataeo Durant, I don’t see the Blue Devils having much trouble moving the ball. I can see this game being low-scoring and tilting to Charlotte’s side at first, but just like Ohio State last night, I expect the superior unit to take over. I’m on Duke covering for a unit and a half.
Michigan St./Northwestern under 45.5 (-110), 2 units: This matchup screams “old-school” to me and when we think old-school, we think defense. For years now, the Michigan State offense has looked very pedestrian. Gone are the days of workhorse running backs churning over every year and a formidable unit that can go head-to-head with the Penn State’s and Ohio State’s of the world. The Michigan St. defense has looked even worse– they gave up 35.1 points per game (ppg) last season. Fortunately they have 7 starters returning this year, so at least there’s some continuity. I think hard-nosed 2nd year coach Mel Tucker can turn around that unit and I expect to see some positive regression this year. Northwestern was sensational on defense in 2020, allowing only 15.9 ppg. While they only have 4 starters returning for this campaign, the schemes they use and the way they confuse offenses should produce the same, effective results. Michigan State played at a slow pace last year, averaging only 71 plays per game. The under is 38-15-1 in Wildcats last 54 games as a home favorite– I’ll ride it here tonight.
