We’ve made some strides in CFB lately. Our record is now a winning one and we’re almost in the black. What a ride, ha. Like our picks a lot this week since I was able to dedicate some extra time to CFB, we’re willing to put a few more units on our plays. Let’s keep rollin! Happy Veteran’s Day to anyone who’s served!
CFB Week 11 Picks (39-38-7, -4.05 units):
Caleb Williams (Colorado/USC, Friday) over 309.5 passing yards (-120), to win 1.5 units
The USC quarterback is a legitimate Heisman contender and USC is in a great spot to flex on a bad Colorado defense. The Buffaloes allow over 40 ppg and categorize as one of the worst defenses in so many different categories.
That’s especially true against the pass. Caleb lights ’em up in another strong effort for the Trojans and for his season.
Army 1H under 9.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Army goes up against one of the best defenses in the nation, at Troy, and even though the Black Knights found success against lower level teams that can’t defend a high school team, the Troy Trojans aren’t that. Army’s inability to score points against above average defenses has been stark, scoring only 7 points against AF and 10 points against Wake Forest. I’m not sure if the Knights will get close to the endzone in this contest; that’s the reality we’re dealing with. I’ll take the Army TT under early, in case somehow they figure it out for the full game.
Marshall ML (EVEN), to win 1.5 units
Marshall only recently joined the Sunbelt conference but since they started facing App State, each team has won on their home field. It’s Marshall’s turn this year. The Thundering Herd are exceptional on defense, particularly against the run. They’re 4th nationally against the run, allowing only 2.9 yards per carry. App State still prefers to be a run-first team. Like most Sunbelt offenses, the Mountaineers have limitations and they need the run game to ignite their passing attack. I don’t think the Herd lets them get comfortable. Marshall can control the ball on the ground, they run the ball on 59% of their plays, and keep the game low scoring and close. We know that these home-field advantages can be deadly and this will be a tough crowd for the Mountaineers to overcome. Give me the Herd for 1.5 units.
Notre Dame -15.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Some people will say “Navy always plays Notre Dame close” but this is a neutral site game and the Irish should be able to control the ball with their defense and a growing offensive attack led by a dynamic rushing attack. Notre Dame has put up 40 ppg against better defenses than Navy the last 3 weeks and I’m not sure the Midshipmen will be able to score many points on ND’s defense. They’re starting to look more like the unit we saw in Week 1 against the Buckeyes. All ND for me.
TCU +7.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This should probably be the the reckoning for TCU and I don’t think they’re the true #4 team in the country, but they should be feisty on Saturday. Texas is a better defensive team against the run which means the Horned Frogs potent passing attack should be able to stretch the field and free up some quick passes and trick-runs. Now that this is at +7.5, it’s passing into disrespectful territory and TCU will be plenty motivated to prove they can hang with a big dog like Texas.
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