CFB Week 4 (14-16-2, -5.08 units):
Georgia State +2 (-110), to win 1 unit
A year off seems to be a good thing for Coastal Carolina as they come into this contest 3-0. Meanwhile Georgia State is 0-3 and yet this is still a short number. Why? Because the books know that Georgia State can and probably will win this game. An intra-conference matchup at home, this is a good spot for the Panthers to get a win and they’ve been very competitive against much better teams so far, so don’t be deterred by their record.
Michigan -16.5 (-115), to win 1.5 units
We’ve seen this story over and over again and while MD looks pretty good this year, they almost always do before they take on a big dog. And historically they SUCK when they take on an elite team like Michigan. The Wolverines’ offense is exciting this year and while their defense may not be as proficient, I think they’ll look like the old Michigan defense on Saturday.
Georgia -45 (-110), to win 1.5 units
It’s an insane line but this is an insanely good Georgia team who does NOT want to lose their #1 ranking. How is Kent State going to score? Miracles happen, but I’ll count on the Bulldogs crushing their low-level opponent at home.
Temple -9 (-110), to win 0.5 units
Ugly ugly I know, but Temple has a better defense than people think and they’re facing one of the worst teams in college football. Nice spot at home. Low unit play for obvious reasons– it’s Temple.
North Carolina -1.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Time to fade Notre Dame. As a fan it’s been brutal seeing this team underwhelm year after year but this season may be the most underwhelming of all. Their defense is bend don’t break but the only problem is that they break pretty fucking often. I don’t think they can keep up with the Tar Heels offense if they get going. And at home, the probabilities suggest that their offense will get going.
Florida +10.5 (-104), to win 2 units
This is just a numbers play. The Volunteers have looked good and I realize Florida has tripped over themselves already, they’re just not as sharp yet and it showed against Kentucky and South Florida, but this is a game they get UP for (they’ve won 16 of the last 17) and it hasn’t mattered how much “better” the Volunteers have been in the past, either. Brad Powers’ numbers, which go back to 1976, Tennessee has NEVER been favored by more than a touchdown against the Gators. Take advantage.
USC -6 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This hasn’t disappointed yet and we’ll keep playing on the Trojans as long as we see value. The Beavers are fiesty for sure but I don’t see them hanging.
UFC 280 on Oct 22nd, (12-12, +11.88 units in 2022):
Islam Makhachev (-150), to win 2.5 units
Under 2.5 rounds (+125), to win 1.25 units
Watch this video and just TRY not to get excited about this main event. One of the biggest cards in years and one of the best fights I can remember, two perceived prodigies face off on October 22nd, one day before my birthday, and needless to say I’m fucking pumped. Charles Oliveira deserves everything he’s gotten, but this is Islam’s time to shine. Islam may be legitimately unbeatable. I realize that Oliveira can take punishment like no one’s business and he just continues to prove doubters wrong, maybe he does it again here, but I’m willing to bet a lot that he does not. Islam is Khabib 2.0 and Khabib is literally the best UFC fighter of all time so, that’s a rather scary prospect. He defends himself perfectly, he has an immeasurable gas tank, he has that weird, rare power that comes from seemingly nowhere and he WILL take down Oliveira. I’m also betting he wins by points or wins later in the fight after he wears down Oliveira.
TJ Dillashaw (+140), to win 2.8 units
Sorry not sorry, I like Aljamain Sterling isn’t as sharp as he thinks he is, though defeating Peter Yan was one hell of a win. Although, according to most experts and definitely in my opinion, Yan should have won that fight. Now Sterling waltzes into this contest probably thinking he’s the man. I love TJ to show him emphatically that he is NOT. Dillashaw has one of the best gas tanks in the UFC and while his suspension took him out of the game for a while, he got warmed up again with a nice split decision win against the elite Cory Sandhagen. Many forget how dominant and overwhelming TJ was in his prime – I do not. Dude is still only 36 years old and he’s probably healthier than he’s been in a long time. Dillashaw for the win.
