Believe it or not, our picks in CFB will improve, too. Looking at the last few weeks, this is no doubt one of the harder starts I’ve ever had at the beginning of a football season. Some putrid bad beats and variance haven’t helped.
Wouldn’t blame you if you faded me or went the other way. Still giving you picks, it’s my job.
CFB Week 5 (16-21-2, -10.36 units):
Lean, BYU -24
Just a huge line so I don’t want any part of it, but it sets up for a huge BYU win.
Kentucky +6.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Ole Miss hasn’t exactly faced the class of college football so far and their game against Tulsa, where they didn’t cover, feels like a red flag. Kentucky will start their backup but Kentucky’s defense and disciplined coaching can keep them in the game. Ole Miss’ pass defense is VERY questionable, too. Chris Rodriguez (RB, Kentucky) takes over and a stingy defense keeps Kentucky close all game.
Illinois/Wisconsin under 43 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Nice response spot for the Badgers, at home, after a nice big slice of humble pie last week against the mighty Buckeyes. Illinois will struggle to score and Wisconsin needs this win to stay relevant. Testy game between two rivals — love the under.
JMU -22 (-110), to win 1 unit
Some may say this is a prime let-down spot after JMU’s huge win against Appalachian St but I disagree. Texas State is among the worst teams in college football; getting thrashed by Nevada proved that; and a team like JMU, who’s not heralded or used to the national attention, should only use that last win to elevate their motivation and focus. Their secondary will be a HUGE problem for Texas St. Laying the points with the home star.
Navy +14 (-105), to win 1.5 units
Two academies going at it and are we SURE that Air Force (my branch) is THAT much better than Navy? I’m not. Not impressed by their wins and Navy has played better as of late. Gotta go with the dog.
Kansas ML (+130), to win 1.3 units
Yea I just don’t think Iowa State is very good. Great spot for the Jayhawks to get a win at home and their offense has been very efficient.
Utah -10.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Oregon State shot their load last week, impressively holding back USC’s dynamic offense throughout the contest (until the 4th quarter, of course). That’s a huge let down for the Beavers last week and now they have to waltz into Salt Lake City to face a Utah team that’s far more impressive in defense and offensive production. Kyle Hunter likes the under in this one, but liked it more at 55 and 56. Just something to note.
Michigan State +7.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Another example of two teams who are heading into this contest feeling opposite ways. Michigan State got ransacked by Minnesota last weekend, no bueno, while MD actually looked impressive and comparable to the mighty Wolverines. This is a classic example of “no team is as good or as bad as one game,” and that’s especially true in a Big 10 rivalry.
USC 1Q -7 (-120), to win 1 unit
USC TT over 43.5 points (-110), to win 1 unit
Perfect setup for the Trojans to explode on offense after being held back and Arizona State, as an organization and especially on their defense, is a complete mess right now. USC dominates from start to finish and I love a blowout here. Lean USC -26 but I see more value in their TT over — AZ State will struggle to stop that in any regard.
