Charles Schwab Challenge – Preview & Picks

Brooks Koepka (22-1) wins the PGA Championship at Oak Hill! In addition to that, we also cashed T. Hatton Top 20 (+160) and T. Fleetwood Top 30 (+145)!

What an incredible week at Oak Hill. Brooks headlined the week as has now won five Majors including three PGA Championships. With that victory, it looks as though he’ll be in contention to represent the United States in the Ryder Cup this year.

It also wouldn’t be fair to leave out Michael Block, who has become an overnight sensation. He finished tied for 15th which is the best finish by a club pro at the major in nearly four decades. The head pro at Arroyo Trabuco Golf Club in Mission Viejo, California, has received a sponsor exemption and will play in this week’s event. He’s currently 600-1 on Pointsbet to win the Charles Schwab Challenge.

We now head to the Colonial Country Club for the Charles Schwab Challenge. Let’s get into this week’s storylines…

Jordan Spieth will return to Texas for the first time this season after withdrawing from the AT&T Byron Nelson due to a wrist injury. He played fairly well last week at the PGA Championship finishing tied for 29th. However, you could tell that he’s still dealing with some issues. Speith has some incredible course history at Colonial so we’ll see if that can get him back on track after an up-and-down season.

World No. 1, Scottie Scheffler, who went to college at the University of Texas, lost in a playoff in last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge to Sam Burns. He’s been great this season with two wins already under his belt and is coming off a T2 finish at the PGA Championship. Scheffler has also played well in Texas this season finishing T9 at the Cadence Bank Houston Open, 4th at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play event, and T5 at the AT&T Byron Nelson.

Sam Burns captured his fourth PGA Tour victory here at Colonial last year and will look to defend his title. However, he comes into this event in poor form missing the cut in his last two events. Burns does have one win on the PGA Tour this season which was at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play event (Austin CC – Austin, Texas).

Min Woo Lee of Australia and Ryan Fox of New Zealand, also earned Special Temporary Membership on the PGA Tour after their finishes last week and will both be in this week’s field.

 

Tournament Information:

• Dates: May 25th, 2023 – May 28th, 2023
• Location: Fort Worth, Texas, United States
• Course: Colonial Country Club
• Course Type: Parkland
• Par: 70 (4x 3’s / 12x 4’s / 2x 5’s)
• Length: 7,209 yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: A-4 bentgrass .100”
• Fairways: Tifway 419 bermudagrass .350”
• Rough: Bermudagrass mix 3”
• Bunkers: 84
• Water Hazard(s): 4 (In-Play on 6 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 5,000 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 12 – 13 ft.
• Purse/ Winner: $8,700,000/ $1,566,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 500
• Field/ Cut: 120 Pros | Top 65 and Ties – 36 Holes
• Historic Cut Line:
  • 2022: +1
  • 2021: -2
  • 2020: -4
• Scoring Average:
  • 2022: 70.72 (+0.72), Rank 11 of 50
  • 2021: 70.21 (+0.21), Rank 18 of 51
  • 2020: 69.57 (-0.43), Rank 13 of 41

Comparable Courses & Greens:

TV Information:

• Round 1: Thursday, May 25th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
• Round 2: Friday, May 26th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
• Round 3: Saturday, May 27th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET
  • CBS – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
• Round 4: Sunday, May 28th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET
  • CBS – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET

 

Weather:

• Thursday: Partly Cloudy 83 F, 8 mp/h E, 67% Humidity, 24% Chance of Rain
• Friday: Mostly Cloudy 84 F, 9 mp/h ESE, 57% Humidity, 19% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: Mostly Cloudy 83 F, 9 mp/h SE, 60% Humidity, 24% Chance of Rain
• Sunday: Partly Cloudy 87 F, 10 mp/h SSE, 56% Humidity, 15% Chance of Rain

 

Course/ Tournament History:

The tournament was founded 76 years ago in 1946. It’s the longest-running non-major on TOUR to be contested on the same course. The Charles Schwab Corporation became the event’s title sponsor starting in 2019. Their current deal is slated to expire after next year’s event.

The Charles Schwab Challenge is one of five tournaments to be given “invitational” status by the PGA Tour. With this “invitational” status the field is reduced to 120 and a larger purse.

Colonial Country Club hosted the U.S. Open in 1941, the U.S. Women’s Open in 1991, and the second edition of THE PLAYERS (1975).

After the tournament is over, Colonial Country Club will undergo an extensive 20 Million dollar renovation. It was scheduled for 2022 but due to supply chain issues, the process will begin after this year’s event. Gil Hanse will oversee the project who has previous experience renovating a Perry Maxwell design (Southern Hills). Hanse was also in charge of the Los Angeles Country Club renovation which will be the venue for the U.S. Open later this year.  The project will “address every aspect of the golf course infrastructure” which includes a new irrigation system, new bunkers, tees, turf, and green complexes.

Colonial also has a unique tradition known as the Champion’s choice in which the former champions select two deserving young players, who otherwise would be ineligible, to compete in the tournament. Cole Hammer and Pierceson Coody are the two Champion’s choices this year.

 

• Most Tournament Wins:
  • 5, Ben Hogan (1946, 1947, 1952, 1953, 1959)

• 72-Hole Record:
  • 259, Zach Johnson (2010)

• 18-Hole Record:
  • 61, Keith Clearwater (2nd round, 1993), Lee Janzen (4th round, 1993), Greg Kraft (3rd round, 1999), Kenny Perry (3rd round, 2003), Justin Leonard (4th round, 2003), Chad Campbell (3rd round, 2004), Kevin Na (4th round, 2018)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

Colonial Country Club is one of the tougher courses players will face on Tour this season. In 2022, only four holes had a scoring average under par which were the No. 1, No. 2, & No. 11. 

In terms of length, Colonial Country Club is one of the longer courses on Tour measuring 7,209 yards. It ranks 22nd out of 46 courses in length. The fairways are on the narrower side, ranking 4th of 46, with the average fairway width being 28.0 yards. The average green size is roughly 5,000 square feet which is on the smaller side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. There are 84 bunkers which ranks as the 13th most out of 46 courses.

The four Par 3’s, No. 4, No. 8, No. 13, & No. 16, range between 190 yards and 247 yards. At the 2022 Charles Schwab Challenge, none of the Par 3’s had a scoring average below Par.

No. 4, 247 Yards, Par 3: This is the longest of the par 3s. The elevated green is difficult to hold. This is the only par 3 that has not yielded a hole-in-one during the 62-year history of the tournament. Last year, this was the toughest par 3 with only 24 birdies compared to 87 bogeys.

Seven of the twelve Par 4’s range between 400-450 yards. No. 17 is the shortest listed at 387 yards with the longest being No. 3, playing 483 yards.

No. 3, 483 Yards, Par 4: This is the beginning of Colonial’s “Horrible Horseshoe” — the three most difficult holes on the golf course. The long dogleg left requires a perfectly placed tee shot around a large tree and bunkers. A long approach shot makes birdies rare.

No. 5, 481 Yards, Par 4: This is the hardest hole, and the most famous, at Colonial and the last of the “Horrible Horseshoe.” The tee shot must be precise — there’s a ditch to the left and a river on the right. Even a good tee shot leaves a long, narrow approach. Last year, this was the toughest hole on the course with a scoring average of 0.302 strokes over par.

The two Par 5’s are No. 1 playing 565 yards & No. 11 playing 635 yards. In 2022, both of these holes had a scoring average under par. 

No. 1, 565 Yards, Par 5: Off the tee, players will try to aim up the right side of the hole to avoid the fairway bunkers along the left. If they’re able to do so, they’ll have a wedge in allowing them a chance at birdie. Last year, this was the easiest hole on the course with a scoring average of -0.461 under par.

No. 11, 635 Yards, Par 5: This is a narrow hole requiring a precise tee shot off the tee. Most players will not be able to reach the green in two. Instead, they’ll lay up around 125 leaving them a short shot in while avoiding the several fairway bunkers.

 

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): No.’s 3-5 “Horrible Horseshoe”

 

Key Statistics:

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
• Driving Accuracy
• Scrambling
• Par 4 Scoring: 400 – 450 Yards (x7)
• Par 3 Scoring: 175 – 200 Yards (x3)
• Proximity: 125 – 150 Yards
• Comparable Courses and Event History

 

The Field/ Odds:

There will be 120 players competing in this year’s Charles Schwab Challenge. Seven of the world’s top 20-ranked players are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:

• Scottie Scheffler (+450) lost to Sam Burns in a Playoff last year at the Charles Schwab Challenge. In his other two appearances at Colonial Country Club, he missed the cut in 2021 and finished T55 in 2020. Last week at the PGA Championship, Scheffler made a late charge Sunday but wasn’t able to catch Brooks Koepka. He would go on to finish tied for 2nd. After finishing 45th to start the year, Scheffler has yet to finish outside the top 12 in his last fourteen starts. During that span, he has two wins which were at THE PLAYERS Championship and the WM Phoenix Open.
• Jordan Spieth (+1200) has some incredible course history at Colonial Country where he has only finished outside the top 15 once in his ten appearances here. During that span, he took home the trophy in 2016. Last week at the PGA Championship, Spieth finished T29th struggling on and around the greens. Before that, he missed the cut at the Wells Fargo Championship. However, he was in great beforeor to that finishing 2nd at the RBC Heritage, T4 at the Masters, and T3 at the Valspar Championship.
• Viktor Hovland (+1400) had a great week at the PGA Championship finishing T2. Unfortunately on Sunday, he played himself out of contention on the 16th, which cost him a chance at the Wanamaker Trophy. However, this was his best performance of the year in terms of strokes gained (+4.46) despite winning earlier this year at the Hero World Challenge. This will be his third appearance at Colonial Country Club where he finished T21 in 2022 and T23 in 2020.
• Tony Finau (+1400) struggled at the PGA Championship last week finishing T72. He lost strokes in every category outside of around-the-green. Before that, he finished T23 at the Wells Fargo Championship and won the Mexico Open. That victory was his second on Tour this year after he won the Cadence Bank Houston Open as well. This will be his eighth appearance at Colonial Country Club this week. His best finish was in 2019 when he finished 2nd, four strokes behind Kevin Na.
• Collin Morikawa (+1600) finished T26 in the PGA Championship last week where he gained strokes putting for the first time in his last four events. Before that, he had missed the cut at both the Wells Fargo Championship and the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. He’ll make his fourth appearance at Colonial Country Club with his best finish coming in 2020 when he lost in a playoff to Daniel Berger.

 

• Previous Winners in the Field:
  • Sam Burns (’22), Justin Rose (’18), Kevin Kisner (’17), Jordan Spieth (’16), Chris Kirk (’15), Zach Johnson (’12, ’10), Rory Sabbatini (’07)

• Notable Withdraws:
  • Kieth Mitchell (Undisclosed), Taylor Montgomery (Undisclosed), Parker Coody (Prior Commitment), Adam Svensson

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.

 

Horses for Courses:

• Jordan Spieth: T7/ T14/ T2/ 1 / T2/ T32/ T8/ T10/ 2/ T7
• Tony Finau: T19/ T34/ T29/ 2/ T23/ T20/ T4
• Viktor Hovland: T23/ T21
• Collin Morikawa: 2/ T14/ T40

 

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.

• Sam Ryder: MC/ MC/ MC
• Luke List: MC/ MC/ MC
• Sepp Straka: MC/ MC
• Cameron Percy: MC/ MC
• Erik van Rooyen: MC/ MC

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

• 2022: Sam Burns (-9)
  • Price: 30-1
• 2021: Jason Kokrak (-14)
  • Price: 60-1
• 2020: Daniel Berger (-15)
  • Price: 70-1
• 2019: Kevin Na (-13)
  • Price: 70-1
• 2018: Justin Rose (-20)
  • Price: 20-1

 

Picks (Outrights):

• Tony Finau (+1400) – FanDuel/ BetMGM/ Caesars
  • Risk 0.58 to win 8.12 Units

Finau has already won twice on Tour this season including the Mexico Open, and the Cadence Bank Houston Open (course comp). He struggled at the PGA Championship finishing T72 but heads to Colonial Country Club, a place where he’s had success before. However, when he won at Memorial Park he missed the cut in his previous event so I’m hoping for a similar bounce back this week.

In his seven appearances at Colonial, he has yet to miss the cut. In his last four starts at the Charles Schwab Challenge, he’s finished 2/ T23/ T20/ T4/. While his approach game was sub-par last week, he has been great this season otherwise ranking 5th in SG: Approach. This was also the first week he’s lost strokes in that category all season. Finau also ranks well in another key category this week SG: Tee-to-Green (4th). While he’s lost strokes on the green in his last two starts, he has gained strokes putting at Colonial in five of his seven starts here.

 

• Viktor Hovland (+1600) – BetMGM
  • Risk 0.50 to win 8.00 Units

Hovland’s coming off a T2 finish at the PGA Championship. Despite a great finish, he has to be feeling like he let it get away a bit after that blowup on 16. However, this was his best performance of the year in terms of strokes gained (+4.46) despite winning earlier this year at the Hero World Challenge.

This will be his third appearance at Colonial Country Club where he finished T21 in 2022 and T23 in 2020. Hovland ranks well in both SG: Approach (7th) and SG: Tee-to-Green (11th). His fault has been his play around and on the green. Luckily for him, SG: Around the Green hasn’t necessarily been a key factor in the path to victory. However, you do need to putt well at Colonial. The good news is that he has gained strokes putting in each of his previous two appearances here and he gained strokes on the green at the PGA Championship which has a similar putting surface.

 

• Justin Rose (+3300) – FanDuel/ PointsBet/ Caesars
  • Risk 0.25 to win 8.25 Units

Justin Rose has been trending in the right direction as of late. He’s coming off an impressive T9 finish at the PGA Championship. Before that, he finished T25 at the RBC Heritage and T16 at the Masters. Rose also captured his first win since 2019 earlier this year at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

He’ll make his tenth appearance at Colonial Country Club this week having won here in 2018 (Fort Worth Invitational). Since that win, he’s finished T58/ T3/ T20/ MC. Rose has been great with his irons this season ranking 33rd in SG: Approach. His play on the green has also been solid as he’s gained strokes putting in ten of his twelve starts this season. If Rose, can have a better week off the tee than last week, he should be in contention.

(Just Missed: Sungjae Im +2000 – BetMGM, [Solo Scottie Scheffler Card +450 – DK (2u)])

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.33 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

• Rickie Fowler (+145) – FanDuel
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.45 Units

Rickie’s coming off a missed cut at the PGA Championship where he struggled on the greens. Before that, he has five consecutive top-20 finishes. This is only his second missed cut of the season in addition to the Shriner’s Children’s Open. After that event, he was able to rebound finishing T2 at the ZOZO Championship. He doesn’t have a great course history here as of late but did finish T5 in 2012. Fowler ranks well in both SG: Approach (10th) and SG: Tee-to-Green (17th). If he can figure things out on the green, he should fair well this week.

• Tommy Fleetwood (+145) – FanDuel
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.45 Units

Tommy Fleetwood is coming off a T18 finish at the PGA Championship where he gained strokes in every category. He now has three consecutive top-20 finishes. In fact, he’s gained strokes in every category in each of those starts. Last year, in his only prior experience at Colonial, he finished T35. Fleetwood ranks well in both SG: Approach (26th) and SG: Tee-to-Green (9th). Given the form he’s in, I think he continues his run of top-20 finishes.

Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units

 

Picks (Top 30):

• Cameron Davis (+110) – BetRivers
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.10 Units

• Ryan Palmer (+190) – DraftKings
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.90 Units

(Just Missed: Chris Kirk +110 – DraftKings)

Total Risk on Top 30s: 2.00 Units

 

Total Risk on the Charles Schwab Challenge: 5.33 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.