What goes better with Thanksgiving than Horse Racing? Some may say nothing and I would happen to agree. We have two graded stakes races happening on Thanksgiving but this is the only Grade II. Check out my preview and picks below for the Fall City Stakes.
Red Smith Stakes
Race Information:
- Track: Churchill Downs (Louisville, KY)
- Event Grade: Grade II
- Race: 11
- Post Time: 4:22 PM
- Length: 1 1/8 Furlongs
- Purse: $500,000
- Division: Fillies and Mares | 3 Years Old & Upward
- Surface: Dirt
- Wagers: Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta
TV Schedule:
- FS2 – 11:30 AM – 5:00 PM EST, if not on FS2 check TVG
Field:
| PP | HORSE | JOCKEY | TRAINER | A/S | WGT | M/L |
| 1 | Crystal Ball (KY) | T. Gaffalione | R. Brisset | 4/F | 121 | 7-2 |
| 2 | Cheetara (CHI) | J. R. Laparoux | I. Correas | 4/F | 121 | 15-1 |
| 3 | High Regard (KY) | R. Bejarano | V. H. Oilver | 5/M | 121 | 15-1 |
| 4 | Envoutante (KY) | B. J. Hernandez Jr. | K. G. McPeek | 4/F | 121 | 7-2 |
| 5 | Army Wife (KY) | J. Rosario | M. J. Maker | 3/F | 120 | 5-2 |
| 6 | Bonny South (KY) | F. Geroux | B. H. Cox | 4/F | 121 | 9-5 |
| 7 | Audrey’s Time (KY) | C. J. Lanerie | N. L. Pessin | 4/F | 121 | 15-1 |
Horse Preview:
(1) Crystal Ball, is a horse that should be competitive in this race given her past few starts. She’s off a 4th place finish in the G1 Juddmonte Spinster Stakes being beaten by Bonny South (3rd). In that race she was brushed at the start and got outkicked down the stretch. Before that race, she finished 2nd in the G3 Locust Grove Stakes and 3rd in the G3 Shuvee Stakes. She won her first three starts in 2021 then jumped up to run in a few Graded Stakes as previously mentioned. We’ll see if she can get redemption against Bonny South here.
(2) Cheetara came to the States earlier this year and has competed in four races. She’s off a win in an Allowance Optional Claiming race last month as a heavy favorite. The past two races she lengthened out a bit to a 1 1/16 and will do so again here running a 1 1/8. This horse will also have a step up in class which will be interesting to see how she fares.
(3) High Regard has gone winless in her seven starts this year. This five year old mare hasn’t looked great in any of her starts and I don’t really see a turn around here. She finished 6th in the G3 Locust Grove Stakes earlier this year running against Crystal Ball and Envoutante. She was outclassed by those horses last time and struggled in an AoC her last time out. This horse is a toss for me.
(4) Envoutante, hasn’t looked great as of late compared to 2020 and early 2021. She finished 5th in the G1 Juddmonte Spinster Stakes and 3rd in the G3 Locust Grove Stakes. Her last wins comes back in May of this year at Churchill in the Shawnee Stakes. She does have a G2 win to her name in last year’s Falls City Stakes where she ran a career-best 118 Equibase Speed Figure.
(5) Army Wife, is coming off a two month layoff after a 3rd place finish in the G1 Cotillion Stakes. Prior to that race, she finished 3rd in the G1 Alabama Stakes at the Spa. She does have two wins to her name capturing the G3 Iowa Stakes and G2 George E. Mitchell Black-Eyed Susan Stakes. This horse has faced some steep competition in her last two races and looks good here with a slight step down in class.
(6) Bonny South, is the heavy morning line favorite in this race at 9-5. She’s off a 3rd place finish in the G1 G1 Juddmonte Spinster Stakes besting fellow entrants Crystal Ball (4th) and Envoutante (5th). That race was loaded with talent with Letruska and Dunbar Road running 1-2. Prior to that race she took 2nd in the G1 Personal Ensign Stakes and 5th in the G2 Delaware Handicap. Her only win came back in the G3 Baird Doubledogdare Stakes at Keeneland in April. Bonny South finished second to Envoutante in last year’s Falls City Stakes.
(7) Audrey’s Time, will give her first Graded Stakes a go here. She’s off a win in an AoC at Churchill last month. In her past few starts she has done at greater distances so this distance should suit here. However, I don’t see her being competitive her and having the ability to close on this field.
Race Preview:
Front Runner(s): Crystal Ball, Cheetara
Off the Pace/ Stalker(s): High Regard, Envoutante
Closer(s): Army Wife, Bonny South, Audrey’s Time
Picks:
WIN: (5) ARMY WIFE
EXACTA: 5/ 1, 6
Army Wife should be well rested and has a great jockey/ trainer combination. I like this distance here for Crystal Ball who has had success at Churchill in the past.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
