Well my two player props didn’t hit last night (1 point off for Lebron, quite a few points off for Lillard), but that’s okay. Sometimes you have the right side and it just falls short. We’re 27-14 the last 11 days in betting the NBA playoffs and looking for some more wins today. Happy weekend, everyone!
Bets: Clippers -2.5 (-110), 1.5 units & Batum over 5.5 rebounds (-106), 1 unit & Lean, Luka Doncic over 29.5 pts (-118):
Are you ready for game six?! Kawhi and the Clippers head to Dallas, a place where perhaps they prefer to play these days, against the 3-2 series leading Mavericks tonight and this should be another great game. Kawhi Leonard had a disappointing game five, shooting only 7-19 from the field and 1-7 from beyond the arc for what felt like a meaningless 20 points. At key points of the game, he couldn’t make the clutch shots his team needed. Meanwhile, Luka Doncic was on the other end of the floor eating the Clippers alive, again. Luka put on an MVP like performance, scoring 42 points and securing 14 assists along with 8 rebounds. The Mavericks have yet to win a home game and Luka had his worst performance at American Airlines in game four, scoring only 19 points. Like any wager, prop bets are risky and nothing is a sure thing but I can’t imagine Luke not showing up and putting up another big performance for his team. If the Mavs want to close out this series, he’ll need to. I’ll just lean his points-prop going over since I’m sure LAC will pay him extra attention tonight after that massive performance.
One of these series is going 7 games and this feels like the one. The Clippers are too good a franchise to let this end early and I think they show up big on the road here again tonight. Like many teams, the “other basketball team from LA” takes on the personality of its star, Kawhi. Leonard has always been quiet, cerebral, unemotional, even stoic. He’s not an in-your-face leader like MJ or Kobe or Chris Paul. He leads by the way he plays and when he’s motivated, he’s one of the best in the world. I can’t claim to know what happens in player’s minds from game to game but just like any team, the Clippers are prone to letting their guard down. Even with all their elite talent, I mean they’re literally 10 deep on that roster, a game where they’re unmotivated or miscommunicating will predictably lead to a loss. That’s especially true in the playoffs. In game five, something about LAC was off. They were arguing, passing the ball away, couldn’t connect on big shots; they just didn’t have any fluidity. The jury is still out on Tyronn Lue and just how good a coach he really is but he’s dealt with big stars and contentious personalities before. Perhaps needless to say, I expect a more buttoned-up Clippers team Friday night. When they’re dialed in, the Clips are capable of dominating any team in the association. I could see that result tonight.
I want to play on a Kawhi’s over 29.5 points prop but I won’t make it an official play here. That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised if he went off tonight. At times, Kawhi has looked like the easily the best all around basketball player in the world in this series. He’ll look way better than he did in game 5 tonight. I also like a small play on Nicolas Batum’s rebounds. Batum’s been starting for the Clippers in Ibaka’s absence and his playing time has climbed drastically, leading mostly to solid defense and contributions in assists in rebounds. This is a big game with both defenses clamping down so each team will need to crash the boards and hope for second-change opportunities. Batum has the size, skill and poise to easily eclipse this prop, especially with his elevated playing time.
With just one game on the board, I hope this is the fantastic watch I expect. Enjoy the game, place these bets if you agree and let’s win a little cabbage!
